Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[kkclimber56] 28/4/2017 18:05

Amazing how things can change in 24 hrs

[coolhandfluke] 28/4/2017 17:56

11. Great blues music. Just playing some Blind Lemon Jefferson.Cheers

[coolhandfluke] 28/4/2017 17:47

To start with I have a beard so would not hold that against him. He is yet to lay the path he is trying to lead us up but I think he is pukka. Keep the faith.

[investment dave] 28/4/2017 17:43

Massive buys after close expect the share price to explode on Tuesday

[svenice7] 28/4/2017 17:34

Enjoy the drinks, have a good weekend.

[svenice7] 28/4/2017 17:29

If you look at the after trades its moving up not down.

[coolhandfluke] 28/4/2017 17:28

11. You'r kidding me right? JD jack Daniels. Just getting the weekend started at home with loud music and bulletin boards for company.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 17:22

over week end...

[coolhandfluke] 28/4/2017 17:17

It was just a John Mac play on words. Struck me as funny as I swallow a few JD's and kick back.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 17:15

Does anyone know what a convertible share is.

Come back.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 17:14

PPVN
27 Apr '17 - 14:59 - 26582 of 26644    2   0
Hello I wrote this brief missive for the cheery bunch over on III so if anyone is a member over there feel free to post if you think it vaguely relevant. If not, ignore away.

1. The reason why aftermarket trades are posted is that some funds are selling shares and these are often published at close. At current tally, Och-Ziff are short 55,388,036, Highbridge short 51,639,974, GSA Capital -20,822,570. There are $400mm reasons why this is the case, and it is to do with the convertible bond issue. Imagine (and apologies obviously to those of you who clearly are millionaire investors here as they generally spend their time hanging around internet bulletin boards [no, the irony is not lost upon me]) the scenario whereby you had the funds to purchase $50m of covi’s. You’re $50m down out of pocket, but getting a cool 8.5%. Not bad. But it’s never enough is it since you’re a fatcat with investors to fleece and beaches to wander. So what to do? Why sell some shares of course! But not just some shares, many shares – infact enough shares to eventually recoup your $50m investment so you’ll have the bonds (still paying 8.5%) and the money (generated from your sale of stock). Winning! Of course, you still have your short interest in the co which will, at a later date, maybe even up until maturity if you’ve already got your cash back be covered by converting bonds -> stock. Now obviously the conversion price placed on these bonds is US $0.3076 so you’d hypothetically be a seller anywhere above 23.86p – so at 26p you’re even making 2.14p profit per share as well!! Double Winning!! It’s almost Abba-esque in its ingenuity, and it certainly is a rich man’s world. Cash, coupons, profits – not quite as catchy but you get the idea, maybe. Please do not miss the underlying point of this note. Although there is selling, once shorts have been established funds have to replenish the shares from somewhere. When bonds are converted, there is no more bond. To reiterate the importance of this point I shall paraphrase; if there is no more bond, is no more debt, and if there is no more debt then Sirius is in the clear (and indeed up $400mm, less coupons paid).
2. Transitioning to premium listing. This is more relevant to aspects of corporate governance and fund mandates than anything else. AIM is no country for old men, and it’s no country for funds who want to keep hold of their cash in most instances (check mandates for further information). If (and I say “if” only to caveat the scenario that the share price drops to sub 250 market cap levels) and when Sirius joins the 250 some ETF providers (eg. XMCX / SOIL US / look them up yourselves) may include them so as to accurately track the underlying index. However, don’t forget Sirius is a long way from revenue let alone profit, so would not be relevant to many etf’s at this juncture. Also in general ETF size would be marginal at best in terms of actual provisioning. Market makers will not, by definition, accrue sizeable positions in shares in anticipation of such events (also: Volcker rule).
3. The EV of this company is the more interesting part. At present value, fundraising has given the company c. £950mm of cash to splash and at 26p the co is worth £1.1bn (near enough – if you want to argue over pennies feel free to calculate the exact amount but I can’t be bothered). Meaning that all the groundwork / rights / plans etc are valued @ £150mm. I know what I feel to be a fair value, and over the course of the next few years all shares, including Sirius will vacillate between under and overvalued. So position accordingly.
4. There have been 26 market makers active in this security in the past 7 days – not quite sure why that’s relevant but someone asked the q.

[coolhandfluke] 28/4/2017 17:07

1st day on the main market and finishes in the red. YOU CAN NOT BE SERIUS.

[svenice7] 28/4/2017 16:52

Which numpties sold

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 16:45

Right , game over down the pub.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 16:41

Lol, the red bb has

Ok, they changed it.

[investment dave] 28/4/2017 16:41

Big opportunity to buy in will hit 27p Tuesday

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 16:32

close 25.5

lets the after trades.

10 mins