Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[carla1] 28/4/2017 15:47

oh the big boys are selling ??

[svenice7] 28/4/2017 15:43

What's that got to do with anything 11%?

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:43

Svenice7
28 Apr '17 - 15:32 - 26644 of 26649    0   0
Don't be fooled, its a tree shake

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Bounced...you could be correct..lets see.

I blame mr.oz and SQ.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:42

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and the share price tanks!!!??

[carla1] 28/4/2017 15:40

Goose is it to 23p then ?? x

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:36

CF issued convertables.....an accommodation...aimo.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:34

carla1/net,

Read and understand this.....given you lot posted it...it should not be hard.

Remember....this is WHAT HAPPENED (PAST).

Move on.


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PPVN
27 Apr '17 - 14:59 - 26582 of 26644    2   0
Hello I wrote this brief missive for the cheery bunch over on III so if anyone is a member over there feel free to post if you think it vaguely relevant. If not, ignore away.

1. The reason why aftermarket trades are posted is that some funds are selling shares and these are often published at close. At current tally, Och-Ziff are short 55,388,036, Highbridge short 51,639,974, GSA Capital -20,822,570. There are $400mm reasons why this is the case, and it is to do with the convertible bond issue. Imagine (and apologies obviously to those of you who clearly are millionaire investors here as they generally spend their time hanging around internet bulletin boards [no, the irony is not lost upon me]) the scenario whereby you had the funds to purchase $50m of covi’s. You’re $50m down out of pocket, but getting a cool 8.5%. Not bad. But it’s never enough is it since you’re a fatcat with investors to fleece and beaches to wander. So what to do? Why sell some shares of course! But not just some shares, many shares – infact enough shares to eventually recoup your $50m investment so you’ll have the bonds (still paying 8.5%) and the money (generated from your sale of stock). Winning! Of course, you still have your short interest in the co which will, at a later date, maybe even up until maturity if you’ve already got your cash back be covered by converting bonds -> stock. Now obviously the conversion price placed on these bonds is US $0.3076 so you’d hypothetically be a seller anywhere above 23.86p – so at 26p you’re even making 2.14p profit per share as well!! Double Winning!! It’s almost Abba-esque in its ingenuity, and it certainly is a rich man’s world. Cash, coupons, profits – not quite as catchy but you get the idea, maybe. Please do not miss the underlying point of this note. Although there is selling, once shorts have been established funds have to replenish the shares from somewhere. When bonds are converted, there is no more bond. To reiterate the importance of this point I shall paraphrase; if there is no more bond, is no more debt, and if there is no more debt then Sirius is in the clear (and indeed up $400mm, less coupons paid).
2. Transitioning to premium listing. This is more relevant to aspects of corporate governance and fund mandates than anything else. AIM is no country for old men, and it’s no country for funds who want to keep hold of their cash in most instances (check mandates for further information). If (and I say “if” only to caveat the scenario that the share price drops to sub 250 market cap levels) and when Sirius joins the 250 some ETF providers (eg. XMCX / SOIL US / look them up yourselves) may include them so as to accurately track the underlying index. However, don’t forget Sirius is a long way from revenue let alone profit, so would not be relevant to many etf’s at this juncture. Also in general ETF size would be marginal at best in terms of actual provisioning. Market makers will not, by definition, accrue sizeable positions in shares in anticipation of such events (also: Volcker rule).
3. The EV of this company is the more interesting part. At present value, fundraising has given the company c. £950mm of cash to splash and at 26p the co is worth £1.1bn (near enough – if you want to argue over pennies feel free to calculate the exact amount but I can’t be bothered). Meaning that all the groundwork / rights / plans etc are valued @ £150mm. I know what I feel to be a fair value, and over the course of the next few years all shares, including Sirius will vacillate between under and overvalued. So position accordingly.
4. There have been 26 market makers active in this security in the past 7 days – not quite sure why that’s relevant but someone asked the q.

Finally, and only if anyone cares, I do hold a not insignificant position here that isn’t close to my perceived FV yet

[svenice7] 28/4/2017 15:32

Don't be fooled, its a tree shake

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:31

The hedgiees just got 30%.......they will sell to these shares to the iis.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:29

big spike down....last 30 mins...on huge vol......the 20 guys were on a promise........they got their 30%.

[carla1] 28/4/2017 15:27

Goose... what the hell is going on ??

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 15:23

Svenice7
28 Apr '17 - 13:00 - 26620 of 26638    0   0
GKP is a slightly different story! Its in a war zone in Iraq paid by war lords.

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I think you will find this is a war zone...paid by the US hedge fund....far more dangerous.

[carla1] 28/4/2017 15:06

Love and peace Goose x

[carla1] 28/4/2017 14:58

Good afternoon fellow investors... they come in pairs :-)

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 14:55

I am not often wrong...but I am right again.

The move to the main market was in the share price ...as I predicted.

[11_percent] 28/4/2017 14:53

tmmalik
28 Apr '17 - 08:45 - 26608 of 26630    1   0
Good move as no new shares istreated sued while moving to main market
Now 35p very soon

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They should have consolidated the shares.......which means it will still be treated as an AIM scam share by the Hedgies and carla1.

ps, what happened to carla.

[johnwise] 28/4/2017 14:27

Whitby Gazette

Sirius Minerals the company behind the construction of a potash mine near Whitby has completed its move to London Stock Exchange’s Main Market.

[spirito] 28/4/2017 14:02

dp that is the worst investment advice I've ever heard.

[ipsgs] 28/4/2017 13:52

dp1 already in lloyds with my largest holding through wife's 10 year old share save scheme. thanks for your input spirito, will do a bit of homework on costs over long term