Shire Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 02/12/2013 15:53

Shire slips as UBS warns on pharmaceutical group's prospect



Shire has been fairly buoyant recently, with a raft of positive broker comment in the wake of last month's announcement it would buy Viropharma, a specialist in rare diseases, for $4.2bn.

But its shares are currently 57p or 1% lower at £27.15p after a negative note from UBS. The bank has moved its recommendation from buy to neutral and cut its price target from £31 to £30.60. It said:

Shire has diversified its pipeline and appears ideally positioned to benefit from strong underlying growth but we believe a few upcoming clinical trial read-outs carry more downside risk than upside risk. Indeed, we believe the Lifitegrast Phase III trial and the Vyvanse in Major Depression Disorder may not have selected the right type of patients and could lead to disappointing results. Moreover, we believe Shire could face negative sentiment risk around the challenge of the Vyvanse patent in mid-2014 and prefer staying on the side-line for now, downgrading to neutral.

[zho] 28/10/2013 17:34

Elsewhere Shire rose 38p to £28.14 as analysts issued positive recommendations in the wake of last week's trading update. In a buy note Goldman Sachs said:

Post Shire's strong third quarter and earnings upgrade, we revise our Shire earnings per share estimates for 2013 by around 3% and 2014-2018 by 7%-10%. Our new estimates now imply a five year (2012-17) earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 16.5% versus 14%. Importantly, we continue to view Shire as a top line growth story, with revenue forecast to grow around 6% over the next five years on an organic basis. Consequently, despite the [recent] 9% share price move, we still view Shire as being significantly under valued in the context of its growth outlook. We believe consensus estimates do not reflect any optionality on Shire's ability to add to its robust organic growth outlook via M&A, business development.

Citigroup was also upbeat, raising its target price from £29 to £32, although it did add:

With no near-term uptick in [skin substitute] Dermagraft revenues evident, we wonder why Shire does not divest this asset, or even stop manufacture and promotion of the product altogether. The regenerative medicines division lost around $90mn the first half of 2013, with additional losses recorded in third quarter. Dermagraft sales declined by around 50% in the first nine months of 2013.

[steeplejack] 28/10/2013 10:46

Goldman Sachs.....28th Oct....Strong buy,target £36

[steeplejack] 25/10/2013 08:30

Notable how much share activity now occurs in the US.The ADR is a 1:3 and yesterday the equivalent shares traded approached 7 million.It was strength in the US that dictated a firm opening in UK this morning.Lot of broker upgrades of course,with JPM now looking for £33

[zho] 24/10/2013 14:17

Pharmaceuticals group Shire, best known for its hyperactivity treatments, has shot to the top of the FTSE 100 after forecast-beating figures.

The company reported a 12% rise in third quarter revenues to $1.24bn and a 30% increase in income to $422m, helped by lower than expected research and development costs as it simplified its three previous divisions into one business.

It raised its estimates for the full year and is now looking for mid-to-high-teens earnings growth, compared to the double-digit growth it forecast in July. Chief executive Flemming Omskov said:

We're confident in our prospects for the longer term as we continue to execute on commercial delivery, progress our prioritized pipeline and focus on targeted M&A.

The news has sent its shares soaring 140p to £26.65.

[karateboy] 26/9/2013 20:54

That may explain shp share price drop. With the market cap of 2.5b dollar, it should not have too much impact on shp, if shp decides to buy viroPharma.

[steeplejack] 25/9/2013 11:22

Biopharmaceutical company ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM), has held discussions on a potential sale and is working with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) on a possible auction process, Bloomberg News reported Friday, citing people with knowledge of the process.Sanofi (SNY) and Shire PLC (SHP.LN) are among those who have shown interest, Bloomberg reported.13Sept 2013

[karateboy] 20/9/2013 19:57

May be an offer is on its way...sp up again in downwards market.

[warrenbuffet2] 25/8/2013 17:13

Shire next?

[pinkalltheway] 25/8/2013 07:18

It's only a matter of time until the yanks swallow it up.. The good thing is it will be a substantial premium (rumoured 17bn =£32 per share)

[roddiemac2] 23/8/2013 07:39

karateboy,

Yes, but this has all been said before . SHP have been buying back shares all year, and currently hold a huge number in treasury.

hxxp://www.fiercepharma.com/story/shire-eyes-takeover-protection-bid-rumors-swirl-mail-says/2013-05-20

[karateboy] 22/8/2013 18:15

Has anybody else saw the article in weekend news paper that shp trying to build defences against any Possible American bid of 17 billion pounds...

[brain smiley] 26/7/2013 10:16

Shire shot to the top of the risers and hit a new record high, even as the overall market slipped back.

The pharmaceuticals group, best known for its hyperactivity drugs, said second quarter income rose 13% to $342m and raised its targets for 2013. The news sent its shares 122p higher to £23.39 as it said growth was driven by better sales for Vyvanse and Intuniv, as well as its ulcerative colitis treatment Lialda. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said:


We believe Shire can meet guidance to grow revenues more than 5% per annum, and deliver double-digit earnings per share growth. The net cash balance sheet, and strong cash flow, will be deployed to bolster the late-stage pipeline. We believe the market continues to under-appreciate the global commercial potential of ADHD, and the label expansion opportunities for Vyvanse in depression and BED, as well as Phase III asset lifitegrast for dry eye.




Analysts at Jefferies said the earnings per share figure was around 8% ahead of the concensus forecasts:


Another [hyperactivity drug] AXR beat may be seen as lower quality and Lialda gains one-off, but other key products are in-line aside from ongoing Replagal pressures. Management is slightly raising 2013 profit targets on lower operating expenditure plans, but the sales growth target is reiterated. We see upgrades from operating leverage justifying a minor stock uptick. Longer-term valuation and pipeline drive our buy.

[volsung] 19/4/2013 12:21

I have bought some of these. They do drugs don't they? Sometimes they say a nice spliff is good for you.

[artnouveau] 19/11/2012 12:22

Deutsche buy note today and £20.50 price target.

ArtN

[artnouveau] 06/11/2012 12:12

Share buyback has now been underway a few days.

ArtN

[topdoc] 26/10/2012 16:32

so far so good playing out according to script expect further upside nexr week target 1807 dyor etc

[topdoc] 26/10/2012 15:18

that was a forced sellar causing the drop.he is out of the market now but they did miss there numbers but brokers remain upbeat so careful watching needed needs to stay above 1743 with a bit of leeway off course.usual dyor and no advice intended

[deanroberthunt] 26/10/2012 13:40

so what was all that about then....did as you said.

[topdoc] 26/10/2012 09:47

1700 was the target will reverse now close your short will reverse now

[deanroberthunt] 26/10/2012 08:22

gone short looks like its heading for 1600p

[deanroberthunt] 26/10/2012 08:22

what a bag of rubbish this is......

[deanroberthunt] 25/10/2012 18:11

dunno why AZN or GSK don't just buy these up....the revisd NAV is over £20....they could buy this with their petty cash use for paper clips