Shire Share Discussion Threads

[artnouveau] 31/7/2008 12:51

Hopefully no one was shorting this. Vyvanse up to 8.2% total US market as of July 18th. By Christmas we need to see this well into double digits before April 2009 when ADDERALL expires. Other products put in superb performance.

[liquidkid] 31/7/2008 10:36

Down 4% Pre results??? Either a serious leak of information resulting in insider trading or the usual underhand actions of a repeat offender Gehenem Shats. - In the run up today GS had been pumping this as a buy whilst reducing their stake to below threshold yesterday.

[the_doctor] 25/7/2008 13:03

Agreed. Compared to a year ago, much of the Vyvanse hype (unwarranted) is now out of the price. But unless ADVFN is wrong, I cant see why SHP warrants such a high PE compared to other pharmas, despite being smaller. It still suffers the same problems now.

[liquidkid] 25/7/2008 09:26

It may have alot further to run, whilst all other drug majors are reporting better profits it has also just released adult Vyvanse with a big marketing campaign. 2009 is a long way away for a trader.

[the_doctor] 24/7/2008 14:45

Darn, thought about a trading punt at 730p, but was put off my by above post!

[the_doctor] 21/7/2008 13:01

IMO, since Shire has now essentially become a big pharma and is plagued by the same issues, it doesnt warrant its massive PE premium any more - particularly since it cannot grow to the same extent as it once did.

So, this will IMO never seem cheap until its nearer 250p (assuming the ADVFN figures are correct).

However, thats not to stop it being traded up and down still. But I'd no way consider a long-term stake.

[the_doctor] 21/7/2008 10:23

IMO, the main risk here is that sales of Vyvanse stop growing, or even decline when Adderall XR generics come in from April 2009. My guess is not.

[artnouveau] 17/7/2008 22:04

These are the latest broker rec's as of today...

16-Jul-08 Panmure Gordon Buy 745.00p 1,200.00p - Reiteration

07-Jul-08 JP Morgan Neutral 797.00p 1,050.00p 882.00p Reiteration

23-Jun-08 Panmure Gordon Buy 842.50p 1,200.00p - Reiteration

23-Jun-08 Goldman Sachs Buy 842.50p 1,015.00p - Upgrade

[aclark9201] 17/7/2008 11:05

Any specific reason for todays fall? A broker downgrade before the results, maybe, so they can get back in cheaply?!!

[artnouveau] 23/6/2008 17:12

Also, Panmure Gordon target to £12 also reiterated today.

Seems Credit Suisse's target of £8 might be the bottom.

ArtN

[artnouveau] 23/6/2008 10:35

Nice rise this morning, Goldman Sachs ups target to £10.15.

ArtN

[artnouveau] 19/6/2008 22:29

Hi deanroberthunt,

Do you have a 'net link or broker note to Credit Suisse's £6.98 target price. All my stock accounts are showing Credit Suisse on £8.23 still, as of yesterday.

Goldman Sachs are below 3% notifiable interest as of today.

ArtN

[deanroberthunt] 19/6/2008 15:36

Credit Suisse has slashed its target for pharmaceuticals giant Shire from 823p to 698p, warning that prescription trends for its drugs have been disappointing this year. It maintains an underweight rating.

under 700p and I'm might be tempted.

[artnouveau] 17/6/2008 12:48

Director buying...

Shire Ltd. said chief financial officer Angus Russell has bought 2,000 American Depository Shares (ADS), representing 6,000 ordinary shares, at $46.998 per ADS.

Russell now holds 2,000 ADS and 17,219 ordinary shares, the company said.

[artnouveau] 13/6/2008 06:13

Looked like a lot of short positions being closed yesterday. Vyvanse sales moving along okay to switch from Adderall, adult prescription available end of the month. Juvista info constantly coming to market.

Liquid kid you have the same thoughts as me regarding the patch, it's as if some people (there was already some info regarding the stickyness) thought there was some bad bad news coming and it was the voluntary recall by the people who manufacture the patches on Shire's behalf. Purely a production problem in the patch and nothing relating to the drug.

Good luck all SHP longs.

ArtN

[liquidkid] 12/6/2008 13:43

I think it overshot with the market on the too sticky daytrana patch that was recalled a few days ago. Brokers being overly pessimistic too.

[deanroberthunt] 11/6/2008 20:42

Credit Suisse has slashed its target for pharmaceuticals giant Shire from 823p to 698p, warning that prescription trends for its drugs have been disappointing this year. It maintains an underweight rating.

[artnouveau] 11/6/2008 17:19

Nice little update...

[the_doctor] 11/6/2008 15:15

Pharma's are being hit because of their own challenges, rather than the bear market per se.

When Vyvanse is sufficiently taken out of this, it'll be acquired.
How low it'll go in the interim is anyone's guess though.

I'll be a buyer at 700p, but I'd expect it'll bounce before then

[deanroberthunt] 11/6/2008 14:40

ArtNouveau - 2 Jun'08 - 14:00 - 614 of 616

My stop loss on the CFD kicked in at £8.45, cleared out quite a few SHP.

Set a new buy order this morning which kicked in at £8.32, missed the £8.24 on the buy side around 12 though!

Looking for upside now on these, £8.23 must have been the bottom!

ArtN


3 Sectors to avoid in a full blown bear market....Banks, Builders and....................................................Pharma's

[contrarian2investor] 02/6/2008 14:46

ArtNoveau,

Thanks for the the update.
If you chart SHP against to FTSE over the past 6 months you will see that it tends to follow it downwards but very rarely upwards.
IMHO I feel that the FTSE will continue in its current downward trend until more finance issues are discovered or disclosed worldwide. So this will impact on SHP and other good stocks.

However if what Citigroup are saying (which I am taking with pinch of salt) is correct then SHP will surpise to upside by the end of July/Aug 2008.

c2i

[artnouveau] 02/6/2008 14:00

My stop loss on the CFD kicked in at £8.45, cleared out quite a few SHP.

Set a new buy order this morning which kicked in at £8.32, missed the £8.24 on the buy side around 12 though!

Looking for upside now on these, £8.23 must have been the bottom!

ArtN


this from Friday...

0912 GMT [Dow Jones] Recent trends for Shire's (SHPGY) hyperactivity drug Vyvanse have picked up, boosted by promotion of new data in children and helped by the early approval in adults, says Citigroup. The brokerage estimates that 2Q '08 net sales are trending at $70M, with upside possible to stocking, ahead of the official adult launch in early July. The analysts also expect trends to continue to improve through 2H '08 thanks to the extension of the drug's use to adults. Shares -0.2% at 872p. (EXB)