Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philo124] 22/5/2009 22:33

I am a client. Director sell didn't help.

[kamukak] 22/5/2009 14:31

Broker Collins Stewart has initiated coverage on
Shire (SHP) with a 'buy' recommendation and a
£12.55 price target calling for 47% upside in
the stock.
Shire has suffered with its share price falling from £10.65
at the start of this year to 856p. The fall has been due to a
general disillusionment with non-cyclicals, but also due to
stock-specific concerns over Shire's move from Adderall XR
to Vyvanse as the former loses patent protection later this
year. The broker believes market concerns over the latter
are misplaced and have created an excellent buying
opportunity. The two drugs are treatments for ADHD
(attention deficit hyperactivity disorder). It sees Vyvanse
hitting the upper end of Shire's $1.5 billion to $2 billion
revenue guidance by the end of the next decade, boosted by
co-operation with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and a European
launch in 2011. According to Collins Stewart the benefits of
the GlaxoSmithKline deal are not fully factored in by the
market, and may pave the way to a later bid for Shire
should Vyvanse deliver on its promise.

[philo124] 20/5/2009 08:34

Through £9

[the_doctor] 09/3/2009 05:59

Adderall XR generics from Barr/Teva from April 09
I guess the market is preparing for that?...

[fugwit] 08/3/2009 19:08

Now keeping an eye to a possible inverted head and shoulders forming? That aside could be worth goign long from 700 gicen the chart.

[bonzo1] 16/2/2009 12:53

shorting this, very overbought- know it was mentioned in the sunday times yday but far too high at £10.20

[fugwit] 12/2/2009 11:24

Results hmm.....might leave it alone for a few more days then. Nice looking pattern though at the moment. Edge in slowly after the results if nothing too untowards in them and hope it doesn't head too high in the meantime. I see what you mean about volitility, wicks all over the place.

[liquidkid] 10/2/2009 15:44

Tends to get volatile leading up to results with 6 trading days to go - all it takes is a broker to pull out some idiotic downgrade.

[fugwit] 10/2/2009 09:13

Anybody else see the current pattern as a double bottom with a price target of 1294? Came across it last night so scrambling to get up to speed on the fundamentals for this one....any recommendations for a site with good coverage. TIA.

[rfv] 04/2/2009 11:45

This board is very sleepy considering how well the share price has held up. I think that we need some medication.

[mtness] 04/9/2008 10:08

I'm surprised this share doesn't have a larger following - particularly as it's had a good run of late - I'll have another look when the Midas effect has worn off and the price has dropped back a bit

[stevefoster] 01/9/2008 14:21

Can anyone explain the ramifications of the Income Access arrangements (UK vs Irish) for those of us who hold SHP in an ISA?

[artnouveau] 31/8/2008 15:11

One of my largest shareholding's is tipped as a 'buy' in today's Mail on Sunday...


The group has been extremely productive of late. In the past five years all of its treatments have been given the go-ahead by the regulatory authorities.

Between now and 2015 it has 17 new drug launches scheduled and this year, up to 45% of sales will come from new products, which is an extremely good indication that Shire is in growth mode.

[artnouveau] 08/8/2008 12:59

Good news @ 8.88, JP Morgan are lowest with price target at 8.92. All other brokers are higher.

[liquidkid] 08/8/2008 11:55

Share price is now 888 on the 8/8/08 is this good or bad omen? Buy or Sell

[artnouveau] 05/8/2008 10:01

Yeah, why the leap today? Not particularly heavy volume, can't see any buy notes as yet...

[the_doctor] 05/8/2008 09:24

Now really regretting not going long at 730p!

[liquidkid] 04/8/2008 17:08

Just a few items today resulting in profit taking..
- CEO Hetherington get £1mn options with strike at todays price in 3 years
- Other Director Rosenblatt buys just a couple of ADR shares
- Daytrana Sales exceed $75mn triffering third and final £25mn milestone payment to Noven Pharma NOVN

[artnouveau] 01/8/2008 11:54

This is why it's key to get Vyvanse used during the new School term and used by Adults from this month forward. If they prefer the product then it won't matter if cheaper alternatives of AXR come into production between April and September 2009.

However, I take your point but I see the shares as both underpriced and offering a takeover premium.

ArtN

[the_doctor] 01/8/2008 07:07

Ah.... I thought it seemed wrong

As per before, the ADVFN PE ratio is totally wrong
'However, 831½p, or 14 times this year's earnings'

Not bad value at all then

The risk is that Vyvanse sales will start to fall back when generic AXR comes.

IMO, as I have long stated on here, when Vyvanse is sufficiently taken out of the equation, Shire will probably be bid for - based on its attractive business model of niche, or specialist therapies.

[artnouveau] 01/8/2008 06:29

Times says buy...

[artnouveau] 31/7/2008 21:30

But the other drugs and the new drugs bought in the recent acquisition are also growing rapidly.

I agree to a certain extent that Vyvanse is key, however, the adult version is only just beginning sales and they have until April 2009 for Vyvanse to increase its market share well into double digits. Given the current rate of growth I reckon they'll do it. Even if they fall short and shares fall back, AZN or Pfizer will be in with an offer similar to the offer ImClone received today. This is a good long-term hold for me but the data nearer Christmas time relating to Vyvanse will be very interesting to trawl through. Good luck with all your investments.

ArtN

[the_doctor] 31/7/2008 21:02

ArtN, you missed my point.
That being that Shire no longer warrants such a high multiple, since it will struggle to grow. It now shares the same issues as big pharma.

I never said the results wouldnt be good. In fact, I thought they probably would be.

There remains a threat that Vyvanse, although doing well now, could go flat or even decline, when Adderall XR goes off patent.

[artnouveau] 31/7/2008 20:47

Just interested to know if the poster known as 'the doctor', still thinks Shire's shares are worth £2.50 or whether he meant they should be worth £2.50 more than they are worth tonight?

ArtN