Shire Share Discussion Threads

[artnouveau] 25/10/2012 12:58

Probably short positions opened then rapidly closed when AstraZeneca bid rumours are re-ignited. ArtN

[deanroberthunt] 25/10/2012 12:23

whats with the massive swings in share price ?

[artnouveau] 25/10/2012 12:08

Results slightly hit by exchange rate but otherwise very good, share buyback to be instigated...

We are initiating a share buy-back program of up to $500 million. This buy-back program will not constrain the Company's ability to execute its strategy of generating shareholder value through organic growth and acquisitions which further enhance the quality and growth potential of the business.

PDF downloadable here, results were released at noon...

[zho] 25/10/2012 08:07

I think they're released at 2 or 2.30 because of US holdings.

[deanroberthunt] 25/10/2012 08:03

where are the Q3 results ?

[zho] 23/10/2012 16:16

GJ,

I remember the Guardian being pretty hopeless on business 10 years ago, but they've improved. Nils Pratley's articles are little masterpieces of judgement and clarity and it's always worth reading Larry Elliot's economics overviews.

[gottlieb jeger] 23/10/2012 14:27

The guardian? Business? That's like Gordon brown talking about private enterprise lol . Still interesting write up . Just got in at 1798p

[zho] 22/10/2012 17:33

Shire suffered some profit taking ahead of its latest figures due on Thursday. Its shares lost 33p to £18.22 but in a buy note Deutsche Bank said:

Given the setbacks this year and the over-hang of patent litigation, sentiment has been fragile on the shares. However, we see several factors that may help to re-build confidence, including: (1) reaffirmation with the third quarter results of earnings per share guidance for 2012 ("double digit") and 2013 ("sound"); (2) evidence from IMS [sales] data and quarterly results that the new AXR [hyperactivity drug] competition is not as damaging as feared; (3) potential settlement of the Intuniv patent challenge. Fundamentals aside, as one of few European mid-cap pharma companies without a blocking or protective shareholder stake, Shire may be subject to intermittent bouts of market conjecture about its attractions as a potential M&A target.

[zho] 04/10/2012 18:54

Shire's best known drug Vyvanse could prove a multi-million dollar winner in new areas away from its main use as a treatment for hyperactivity, the City believes.

Following a lunch with company directors, analysts at Shire's house broker Morgan Stanley said the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder drug could also be used to treat depression, schizophrenia and binge eating. Analyst Peter Verdult forecast potential sales of $500m to $2bn from these new areas, which could add between 110p and 400p a share to the company's value. He said:

While the market remains sceptical about the potential of Vyvanse ex-ADHD we note phase 3 depression data in the third quarter of 2013 and potentially phase 3 schizophrenia and binge eating disorder by the end of 2013. Vyvanse in ADHD currently does $1.1bn in sales and is protected until 2024. We forecast peak sales of $3.5bn with $0.5bn coming from new uses.

We argue the current share price gives investors a free option to play this upside opportunity.

Verdult also suggested Shire could be on the takeover trail:

We forecast $1bn-$2bn free cash flow per annum until 2015, and note a net cash balance sheet. While acknowledging a mixed track record with respect to M&A - write downs on Movetis are expected - [it] continues to be pursued to "both diversify growth and sustain current platforms"; we expect a focus on the orphan drugs and regenerative medicine businesses.

Shire closed 4p lower at £18.20.

[topdoc] 14/9/2012 09:56

not looking good for the short term trading range

[zho] 01/8/2012 19:07

Shire jumps 5% as results please while ECB and Federal Reserve hopes continue to spur markets

Pharmaceutical group reassures investors about outlook despite increasing generic drug competition


Shire shares have been under pressure recently on fears the company could cut its targets for this year, given increasing competition to some of its key products from generic competitors.

In particular there were concerns about its hyperactivity drugs including Adderal AXR after US approval of a cut-price version.

And indeed, in its latest update, the company did say it now expected full year sales growth in the low teens rather than the high teens. But it continued to forecast double digit earnings growth for the year, which seemed to convince the investors that their fears had been overdone. So Shire's shares rose 89p to £19.37 on the statement, helped by a better than expected increase in second quarter earnings to $420m compared to estimates of $380m. Chief executive Angus Russell said:

Foreign exchange movements are impacting the reported growth of some of our products but [we expect] Adderal AXR will remain competitive in the US market following the approval of a generic competitor.

Analyst Peter Welford at Jefferies said:

As we anticipated given the recent US Food and Drug Administration approval of Actavis' generic AXR, management has trimmed the top-line targets, but they are around 1%-2% above our estimates.

We are warming to the stock at these levels but would still hold-off ahead of several anaemic quarters ahead and some outstanding risks. Aside from relative valuation, solid mid-term growth, and likely talk of lower discretionary spend, we struggle to construct a bull thesis just yet, hence retain a hold.

Mark Clark at Deutsche Bank said:

Overall the company states that it is on track to deliver "double digit earnings growth" for 2012. Furthermore it has extended its guidance horizon and expects "sound earnings growth in 2013 and increased growth beyond that". This should help to reassure a nervous market, albeit there are still litigation and competitive challenges to overcome.

[northernlass] 07/7/2012 14:16

What The Brokers Say

03 July 2012
Citigroup reiterates its Buy recommendation for Shire with a target price of 2,250p.


05 July 2012
UBS retains its Buy rating for Shire, modifying its target price slightly to 2,200p from 2,250p.


06 July 2012
Nomura retains its Buy rating for Shire, with a target price of 2,300p.
Shore Capital reiterates its Buy recommendation for Shire but provides no target as yet.
Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating for Shire, with a target price of 2,000p.



Source:



P.S.
Here's a couple of links about SCLP, one of the hottest stocks at the moment:

[zho] 25/6/2012 17:18

Shire investors feeling gloomy after copycat drug approved

ADHD drug is company's second-biggest seller, expected to earn $1.5bn over three years, now set to make just $450m


The announcement this morning that one of Shire's drugs could be reproduced by its competition as a generic alternative was widely expected.

What was not so expected was the timing of the decision around 18 months earlier than first thought.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US agreed that a copycat version of its hyperactivity drug Adderall XR, could be made by rival Watson, sending shares in Shire down 227p, 11.6%, to £17.39.

The drug had been one of the key treatments in the company's ADHD stable and are particularly popular in the US. It is the company's second biggest-selling drug.

The company attempted to put a brave face on the decision, saying "continues to expect to deliver good full year 2012 earnings growth".

But analysts don't seem to see it that way, with nearly all downgrading forecasts.

Panmure Gordon said: "Adderall XR is a $500m business currently for Shire based on the revenues generated in the past 12 months. We now expect this business to shrink precipitously."

It added that Adderall XR forecasts will slip from $500m a year for the next three years, to $300m in 2012, $150m, in 2013 and $100m in 2014.

Deutsche Bank said: "Shire has been living with the threat of additional generic competition to Adderall XR for many years. Nevertheless news that the FDA has at last set in place generic guidelines and approved a non-authorised generic is still a surprise."

While Merrill Lynch was slightly more cautious about the impact.

It said: "The approval carries up to 20% risk to our EPS [earnings per share] estimates"

It explained a number of factors will determine Shire's profit margins for the drug, depending on when the rival drug comes to market, how much cheaper it could be, could other generic versions be approved and could Shire introduce cost-cutting measures to combat the potential fall.

Either way, it appears to be a major blow for Shire, reflected in the share price, which is at its lowest level since 2005 when the threat of a generic drug was first mooted.

[levi 2] 25/6/2012 15:42

Only Panmuir Gordon have a sell the others have hold or buy at 1747.50 to go to between 2100 and 2300.I missed todays bottom but have bought some at 1747 to try and average.Bought some BLT as well at 1723 as they are looking very cheap.will add on any further weakness.

[philo124] 25/6/2012 10:58

Broker thinks more downside possible.

[philo124] 25/6/2012 10:45

Down £2.

[artnouveau] 25/4/2012 15:30

Just popped from down 30 into positive territory. Q1 results tomorrow, not expecting as fast-as-growth as 2011 but still early teens growth wise ... One to watch.

ArtN

[brain smiley] 02/4/2012 13:40

For the second time in a matter of weeks, disappointing news on one of its drugs left Shire feeling rather poorly. Having withdrawn its US regulatory application for its Fabry disease drug Replagal earlier in the month, the pharmaceutical giant closed at the foot of the benchmark index after admitting its bowel medicine Lialda had failed a clinical study.

Shire had hoped the drug, which is already used to treat ulcerative colitis, could also find a market among diverticulitis sufferers. Yet it has now had to give up on this notion after a study showed it was no more effective than a placebo, prompting the group to say it would not file for approval for this use.

The announcement was taken badly in the Square Mile as Shire's share price was knocked back 98p to 2,020p – its lowest for four months, although the reaction of City scribblers was rather more mixed.

Goldman Sachs' analysts – who had estimated the new use of the drug could result in up to $500m (£310m) of annual sales – called the news "disappointing", although they still kept their "buy" recommendation, while UBS said it had assumed only a 10 per cent chance of success anyway.

Traders noted some in the City were claiming it was a buying opportunity, pointing out the takeover speculation that frequently surrounds Shire.

Overall, it was a session

[the_doctor] 30/3/2012 16:41

2300p would have been a great short!
Missed it myself though - I need to return to a trading system that lets you open at target prices!

[zho] 30/3/2012 16:29

Shire slides 4% after disappointing trial results

Anti-inflamatory drug for diverticulitis no better than placebo, says company


Shire shares have slumped more than 4% after a disappointing trial result.

The company said a phase 3 trial of MMX mesalamine, an anti-inflamatory drug, for digestive disease diverticulitis - conducted in 10 countries over two years - did not reduce the rate of occurence or show any significant difference to placebo.

Another trial is due to report later this year but Shire said it did not currently intend to make a regulatory filing for the treatment. Its shares have dropped 94p to £20.24.

[l2user] 06/1/2012 11:30

ImmuPharma, Shire, ReNeuron and Epistem make it into Merchant's top 12 for 2012
11:12 am by Ian Lyall