Shire Share Discussion Threads

[redtom1] 01/6/2018 08:28

dealy, whilst I didn't totally agree with you before, we are starting to cross the 'acceptability' line.
Investors are telling the markets that they don't like the deal, hence the big fall in Takeda.
But at the same time the markets are not pricing Takeda on the basis that the deal will fail as this would improve the price.
To be honest, I have no idea whether the deal is more or less likely to happen. Is it at 50:50 or completely somewhere else?
It would be nice to hear a little narrative from Weber.

[dwinn78] 01/6/2018 08:26

I wouldn't be betting on the deal going through now . I was expecting far more drum beating from weber about how great a deal this was.

[dealy] 01/6/2018 08:16

echoes my point that the Takeda share price drop points to Takeda shareholders telling the company that the deal is too risky.

[redtom1] 01/6/2018 08:13

mbmiah, sorry but I disagree with you. Takeda has fallen 22.3% since the day before their interest was first announced. It has fallen 12.7% since the last offer was made public. It fell 3.5% overnight whereas the Nikkei rose. So these falls have EVERYTHING to do with Shire.
At Y4300 we are entering very dangerous territory for this deal being voted down. If you were a Takeda shareholder, why would you even consider voting 'yes'?
From a shire shareholder perspective, we are currently still OK due to favourable exchange movements but this could change.
Whole deal is looking less likely by the day.

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4771p with 2283p in cash and 2488p in shares.
With current share price of 4050p, the share price would need to rise 17.8% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 360p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 230p because of fx gains on the cash and share elements.

[mbmiah] 31/5/2018 16:16

The major decline in taks share price has little to do with shire btw. It was off well before the announcement/rumours. Let's not panic too much eh.

[mbmiah] 31/5/2018 16:14

1% rebel looool.

[redtom1] 31/5/2018 15:55

There is a rebel element of Takeda shareholders and it will only grow.
If I were a Takeda shareholder I would more than likely vote against the deal so it is not surprising.
If it stays at a small percentage then ok but the Takeda vote is by far the biggest risk to this deal.

[romeike] 31/5/2018 15:32

There was an article about rebel Takeda shareholders - their holding estimated at about 1%...recent slide in Takeda share price was it moving with the general market.

[redtom1] 31/5/2018 13:31

Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4846p with 2274p in cash and 2572p in shares.
With current share price of 4130p, the share price would need to rise 17.35% to match.
From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 272p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 217p because of fx gains on the cash and share elements.

[pete160] 30/5/2018 09:03

I also lightened up a few weeks ago, although still have 20% of pot in here, but I'm not sure I agree that the slide in the Takeda price is bad.

The drop isn't really out of step with declines in the wider market and with the purchase partly funded with shares surely it provides Takeda holders some flexibility regardless of whether the share price halves or doubles?

For SHP holders on the other hand, yes a reducing price is not necessarily good news - unless you are intending converting to Takeda to retain an exposure to SHP r&d going forward.

But if the bid hadn't come along, what price do you think SHP would currently be trading at given that the market generally is down ? The self serving SHP directors hadn't exactly fallen over themselves to create value or comfort for their shareholders. If the bid hadn't come along I suspect SHP would currently be £ 26-28 / share, so even if the eventual Takeda bid is worth only say, £ 44, we are still much better off imo

Finally, don't forget that between now and d'day sometime next Spring, presumably SHP is continuing to throw off bucket loads of cash. This was previously used to pay down debt rather than return to shareholders, but currently it is effectively reducing the risk to Takeda.

[ruethewhirl] 30/5/2018 05:20

Takeda share price is hitting new lows.

This is bad.

If it continues in this fashion, whole deal may be thrown into jeopardy, and it already looks increasingly tenuous.

I'm glad I lightened up recently, risk is definitely on the uptick across the board at the moment.

[dwinn78] 29/5/2018 08:06

Bad start this morning

[montyhedge] 28/5/2018 19:08

Yes both boards agree, unfortunately they don't own the company, directors manage the company, shareholders own the company. Cash in dollars, paper in yen, Shire quoted in pounds. I say 50/50 the vote to get 75% to agree, just my view.Takeda need Shire more than Shire need Takeda. Shire had good results.

[ruethewhirl] 28/5/2018 04:01

Fan, great article, sadly, not far from the truth.

Summary: Shire was a great company until the Baxalta acquisition and the board are now throwing in the towel, selling Shire on the cheap. Merged entity will be an over-leveraged mess. Sell.

[fangorn2] 27/5/2018 08:54

"Interesting negative viewpoint on merger proposal"


Shire/Takeda Merger - Classical Destruction Of Value

[dealy] 26/5/2018 10:56

good points everyone. forgot about the fact that newer Takeda shareholders are buying because they support the deal

[ruethewhirl] 26/5/2018 00:45

50 50 monty? I'd put it way higher than that :)

Boards of both companies have agreed.

Badwood, it's a free, anonymous bulletin board.

You get what you pay for :)

ADVFN is more about venting one's spleen than insightful analysis.

I did plenty of that when the share price was around 30 quid.

[montyhedge] 25/5/2018 15:25

Including you.

[badwood] 25/5/2018 14:01

There are an awful lot of scratched records on this turntable.

[montyhedge] 25/5/2018 12:50

For me now 50/50 chance of going ahead. Cash element in dollars, paper element in yen, Shire quoted pounds.75% got to say yes. Takeda need Shire more than Shire need Takeda. Great figures from Shire.

[redtom1] 25/5/2018 11:39

Dealy,

I don't think that is a correct interpretation.
There has been quite a lot in the press about Takeda shareholders that don't want to be part of the deal selling their shares. This naturally creates a downward price movement. The articles have gone on to say that existing Takeda shareholders are more likely to vote yes, hence why they are still Takeda shareholders.
The markets are nervous of the financial risk/burden that Takeda is taking on so no surprise that the share price is coming under pressure.
But let's think about the logic here.
The share price was around 5500 at time deal first muted in public. Now around 4500. If the deal was more likely than not to happen, would it still be 20% down on the pre deal price? I don't think so.
The markets may be nervous about the deal but they are still pricing Takeda as though it is likely to happen. Weber needs to do a great selling job to the Takeda shareholders about the 'jam tomorrow' scenario but he has 6 months to do so.
As we currently stand, the Takeda share price is indicating a more likely than not acceptance. Over time more and more of the dissenting shareholders will sell up making the vote even more likely.
There are a lot of things that could happen to scupper this deal and there is a lot of time for these to happen, but as we stand today the Takeda share price still implies a deal is on. Drop below 4200ish, we may have a problem but at current level we are OK.

[ruethewhirl] 25/5/2018 10:56

If anything, Takeda tanking down is saying deal is more likely.

The closer the deal comes to being completed, the lower the Takeda share price will go and the higher the Shire share price will go.

[fangorn2] 25/5/2018 10:45

No it isn't dealy. Stop peddling drivel.

[dealy] 25/5/2018 09:59

Takeda share price is saying no deal desired by Takeda shareholders