Shire Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 15/5/2018 15:21

Fair enough - I'm still in with 50% of existing holding - been a cracking trade this one.

[philanderer] 15/5/2018 15:20

I'm out totally now for +23% which I'm happy with.

Luck to all.

[ny boy] 15/5/2018 14:32

Price action, is starting to look quite positive.

[philanderer] 15/5/2018 14:28

Yes, I'd agree with that . Plus big break clauses on both sides in the agreement.

[redtom1] 15/5/2018 14:27

Pete, only my view, but I do not think a white knight will appear now. I think Takeda's offer is very fair (and not really underpriced). If another company were to appear then they would have done before the deal was signed on 8 May. I think there is very little chance of one showing up now.

[pete160] 15/5/2018 14:09

Just putting it out there but does anyone still think a new bidder might emerge with a knockout cash (or at least higher cash %) offer.
There don't appear to be any rumours of such, so perhaps all those who crowed 3 weeks ago that SHP was too cheap now feel that the price is right after all ?

[redtom1] 15/5/2018 13:38

Gapping up nicely today. 16.6% to match current value. Given the risks and timeframe, this is beginning to look more normal. I wouldn't be surprised if it continued a little but then stayed around 10% discount with movements thereafter dictated by Takeda share price movements (and fx rates) and removal of any significant hurdles (eg shareholder votes etc).
Deal looks more and more certain by reading the press and particularly some of the reports coming after Takeda's results. Takeda has pipeline issues and they need Shire to plug these.
Seems to me that the arbitragers are slowly moving in knowing that they can make a 'guaranteed' 15% over next 9 months (possibly 7).

All the best everyone.

[ny boy] 15/5/2018 11:24

Happy holding and as we slowly creep higher

[redtom1] 15/5/2018 08:11

The offer today is worth 4882p with 2237p in cash and 2645p in shares. share price need to rise 18.5% to match the offer value.

[philanderer] 14/5/2018 21:07

And closed stateside at 4140p


'Looming Velcade freefall shows why Takeda paid big for Shire'

[philanderer] 14/5/2018 19:59

4150p at present

[sampsun] 14/5/2018 19:02

Is that about £42?

[ny boy] 14/5/2018 18:46

Going well stateside

[philanderer] 14/5/2018 17:40

Very good today considering we had to contend with the bounce in the £

[nigelpm] 14/5/2018 16:20

Sold a few from this morning - such fun to trade this one ;-)

[romeike] 14/5/2018 16:04

Yes very generous, I am going to hold all the paper - I suspect that component of the deal could end up being worth over £50/share by the time it completes based on a recovery of the Takeda share prices and favourable fx movement.

[redtom1] 14/5/2018 15:43

BnL, that's very generous of you. ;-)
I'm less generous and want to squeeze out every penny. I'm also happy to hold Takeda Paper and I realise that this will put off many, hence selling prior to completion.

[brahmsnliszt] 14/5/2018 15:39

redtom - think a few of us who bought in below on the news of this takeover would probably be ok with cashing in 10 pct below the current value of the offer. leave some for the next guy and all that......

[mbmiah] 14/5/2018 15:27

Major correction going on here. Seems the market got it wrong and is now embarrassed. Hence, the slow drip drip up towards 45-47 quid. AIMO

[redtom1] 14/5/2018 15:04

Pete, I was wondering that. I hope that they are talking about the calendar year but as you imply the financial year in Japan is like UK and runs to March. So I don't know!!

[pete160] 14/5/2018 14:57

'The Shire acquisition, expected to close by the end of the year'

Do you reckon they mean calendar year or financial year ?

[redtom1] 14/5/2018 14:56

Looks like the gap is slowly closing.
I would imagine that the hedge funds and arbitragers would start to come aboard given the potential gains to be had over 7-9 months.
The Takeda results (albeit quite good) today highlighted the lack of depth in their own pipeline and has probably helped the sceptics regarding the Shire acquisition.

All looking positive and still 19.5% to go to match the current value of the offer.

[bili1946] 14/5/2018 13:44

Thanks redtom1......I know where you live!