Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 09/5/2018 09:42

Yes, could be 18 months until completion, a lot could go right and a lot could go wrong in that time.Break clauses on both sides.

[grahampaul1977] 09/5/2018 09:35

Tom - I seem to recall reading in the FT, recently, that the Shire vote would be some time during Q4. One of the main factors affecting the spread from offer to SHP's current share price is, according to the FT, the time frame to completion sometime in the 2nd half of 2019 and the resulting multitude of inherent uncertainties that attach.

[scfc1] 09/5/2018 09:17

I agree Tom sand I don't buy into the idea that the Japanese won't vote against their Board recommendations. They will (and have a duty to) vote for what they see is in the best interest of their fund, etc...whatever they decide that is.

[philanderer] 09/5/2018 09:09

Deutsche Bank reiterating 'buy'

[redtom1] 09/5/2018 08:57

Monty, in my view it is the other way around.
I'm ignoring us small investors as we are irrelevant in a vote.
But Shire shareholders only have to look back 6 weeks when we were under £30. Now realising about £48 and the big institutions have got no issue whatsoever with holding US listed ADRs. No way will they vote against given the likely crash in the share price if they did.

As to Takeda shareholders, whilst it would be Japanese culture to follow the Boards recommendation, a drop of 20% in the share price and the risks going forward may make them think twice. Hopefully most of the dissenters have jumped ship already. But a rejection would probably create a short term upward movement in the share price

Fingers crossed they both vote yes.

Anyone have any idea when these votes take place? Presumably it is months ahead.

[montyhedge] 09/5/2018 08:36

Takeda shareholders no problem voting this through. Shire shareholders not so sure.

[redtom1] 09/5/2018 08:32

Today's value is 4811p, being 2246p in cash and 2565p in Takeda paper.

[steeplejack] 09/5/2018 07:39

The deal requires approval from 75pc of Shire's shareholders and 70pc of Takeda's shareholders and Mr Weber will now go on the charm offensive with an investor roadshow, travelling to London next week.

[steeplejack] 09/5/2018 07:37

"Christophe Weber, chief executive of Takeda, said: "This is a relatively unusual transaction in the way it's financed with some share issuance, paying in dollars, with the listing in London and listing in Tokyo and New York, so I think there is a bit of complexity that could be one of the reasons [for Shire's share price]. But what is important is that both boards have recommended this transaction."Frenchman Mr Weber blamed British takeover rules for Takeda not being able to tell its investors much about the deal, which he said may have also put pressure on its share price."Daily Telegraph

[ruethewhirl] 09/5/2018 07:32

Yeah not as bad as I first thought, but still, Takeda has not rallied on the news.

[philanderer] 09/5/2018 07:21

4531. -2.3%

[philanderer] 09/5/2018 05:55

Shire-Takeda deal is ‘reasonable value’, says Shore Capital

Shire (SHP) has made an agreement with pharma company peer Takeda on a £46 billion takeover offer, which Shore Capital says looks like ‘reasonable value’.

Analyst Tara Raveendran retained her ‘buy’ recommendation on Shire after a deal was reached that sees each Shire shareholder receive $30.33 in cash plus shares in Takeda, worth a total of £49 a share.

‘The deal represents a 56.2% premium to Shire’s 30-day trading day volume-weighted average and values the group at £46 billion,’ said Raveendran. ‘Post deal close, Shire shareholders will own c.50% of the enlarged group.’

The Shire directors will recommend the deal unanimously and the acquisition is expected to become effective in the first half of 2019 subject to shareholder approval.

‘While we acknowledge the consideration as including the part receipt of Takeda’s equity, given the absence of predictable catalysts over the next 12 months to close the fundamental valuation gap, we see the current proposal offer as offering reasonable value to shareholders over this timeframe, ‘ said Raveendran.

Shire shares jumped 4.6%, or 178p, to £40.34, a discount to the offer.


Citywire.co.uk

[philanderer] 09/5/2018 05:45

Back from lunch in japan and TYO -2.5%

[ruethewhirl] 09/5/2018 03:27

OK, so much for that "rally", Takeda share price smashed today.

[ruethewhirl] 08/5/2018 22:59

Yes be interesting to see if Takeda share price rally will be sustained today.

Very good barometer of investor sentiment coming today.

[ruethewhirl] 08/5/2018 22:58

Takeda are getting the deal of the century here.

They get what they want, to be vaulted into the top 10 Big Pharma.

Bigger then Abbvie (who have missed the boat tbh imho).

The rest is just detail - that's what the CEO will be singing to Takeda investors, and they will lap it up :)

[philanderer] 08/5/2018 22:28

Shares in the FTSE 100 company rose by nearly 5% to £40.34 butremained well below the offer price, indicating that Shire shareholders have reservations about the deal. There are also concerns that the move will overstretch Takeda’s finances. Its shares have lost nearly a fifth of their value since it revealed its interest in Shire.

Takeda’s chief executive, Christophe Weber, is heading to London next week to explain the deal to shareholders. It needs support from 75% of Shire shareholders and two-thirds of Takeda investors to succeed.

[philanderer] 08/5/2018 22:20

4030p close stateside.

Up or down for Takeda in a few hours. ? 😎

[ruethewhirl] 08/5/2018 21:32

TBH I thought the share price would go up more on this news.

Don't really understand why it hasn't, or what else is coming up that might drive the share price higher in the short term.

[philanderer] 08/5/2018 18:12

Analysts see positives as Shire agrees to Takeda's takeover

[podgyted] 08/5/2018 17:36

So, it won't complete until early 2019 at best. Interesting - Shire will have paid off over $5bn of debt by then - gets more and more palatable for Takeda.

How much of Shire is held in the US? Doubt if they will have any problems holding Takeda paper based on the promised listing.

Can't see why the market is attaching so much uncertainty to this.

[philanderer] 08/5/2018 17:10

ShoreCap. BUY
Berenberg. BUY
Liberum. HOLD


All reiterations today

[ygor705] 08/5/2018 16:39

I have just spoken to Hargreaves Lansdown who will hold Takeda ADRs but not ordinary shares on their platform. My understanding (and please correct me if I am wrong) 2 Takeda ADRs equals 1 ordinary share and the offer made is USD 30.33 in cash plus either 0.839 new Takeda ordinary shares or 1.678 Takeda ADRs. At an exchange rate of 1.365 I make that worth £48.08 per Shire share. With the ADR route open to many private investors I do not see any reason to panic and realise holdings in the secondary market here. So far, this thing looks pretty good to me.