Shire Share Discussion Threads

[billytkid2] 21/5/2018 07:58

Roche Hemlibra trial news due this week. Big for Shire.

[john y150171] 18/5/2018 16:44

Thanks redtom these summaries you post are helpful

[redtom1] 18/5/2018 13:25

Value of offer a few minutes ago was 4876p with 2248p in cash and 2628p in shares.
With current share price of 4207p, the share price would need to rise 15.89% to match.

From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 130p in value due to fall in Takeda shares but gained 105p because of fx gains.

[mbmiah] 18/5/2018 11:12

Looks like all the "mates" are being allowed to buy at suppressed share price AIMO of course.

[ruethewhirl] 17/5/2018 22:05

Charm on Christophe, charm on.

Daddy needs a new pair of shoes.

[romeike] 17/5/2018 13:51

Worth bearing in mind that similar to AZN, this share should now offer something of a safe harbour to the market turbulence that will doubtless return at some point.

[redtom1] 17/5/2018 13:00

Pete, I was thinking the same. Wish I had sold some first thing this morning at 4250p+

[romeike] 17/5/2018 12:20

VOD looks like its could drop below its long term low. But once it recovers then yes, nice one.

[pete160] 17/5/2018 11:55

Rightly or wrongly I've taken 1/3 of my holding off the table here and swapped it to VOD at 193p.
I am thinking that a 15% increase in VOD (incl. 9p xd on June 7th) will arrive quicker than a similar move in SHP.
It seems to be the way that the SHP ticks up more in the afternoon via the US so I may well move more across.

[redtom1] 17/5/2018 08:08

Value of offer today is 4903p being 2242p in cash and 2661p in Takeda shares.
Current share price is 86.6% of the offer so the gap is closing.

[dwinn78] 16/5/2018 21:23

Strong finish across the pond

[romeike] 16/5/2018 15:20

I intend to go for full value and am happy to hold the Takeda USD ADR and reduce over time for tax efficiency. Will be the second lucky payout I had from Shire since it was trading at £5 a share when I would buy up a handful of shares each month using whatever pitiful amount of cash I had left after paying out on rent and clubbing (the essentials lol) etc. after first moving to London. I hope Takeda considers spinning out some of the assets it doesn't want to keep, listing with the Shire brand.

[philanderer] 16/5/2018 12:31

Hi Fangorn , I've got enough BAE :-)

Added a few more ECM, but keeping some spare cash at the moment.

redtom, thanks for your kind words.

[nigelpm] 16/5/2018 11:52

Bought back a little at £42 - guess I'm going to be playing this game for a while to come.

[redtom1] 16/5/2018 11:16

Hi Fangorn2, I don't have any evidence but I strongly suspect that they would have no issue holding US ADRs as compared to small individual investors. These are huge funds and institutions who hold all sorts of assets around the world so exchanging UK listed shares for US listed ADRs is no big deal.
Whereas I think this could be an issue for a lot of PIs. Either their account restricts what it can hold or they have no desire to hold ADRs in a Japanese company.
My point is that I suspect that the only really selling pressure will be from the small investors which is unlikely to make much impact on the share price.

Having said all of this, I would be tempted to bail out early if the gap closed significantly and the Takeda element/fx went in out favour. My minimum exit price is around 4700p so a bit higher than many suggesting 4500p. I suspect that you may see your 4500p as we get closer but 4700p may be a push, unless the offer value goes north of 5000p.
I personally hope that Weber does a great sell job to investors over the next few months so that they want to hold Takeda so that it recovers into the low Y5000s. This would push the value to say £51/52 which would give us all an acceptable exit even if we forgo a little value.

[fangorn2] 16/5/2018 10:44

You could be correct RedTom but i suspect many wont want to (or even be able to depending on which broker they hold their stock with)

Eg Hargreaves Lansdown you cant hold Aussie stocks for some reason.

"Institutions & funds are likely to be comfortable to hold Takeda"

Evidence of this?

More likely to hold ADRs than Yen denominated paper I suspect if that is the case.

"and in fact certain funds will want to buy it as it will become a Top 10 Pharma company and indices funds will need it"

Quite possibly true.


@Phil

More BAE for you sir with your winnings? :)

[redtom1] 16/5/2018 08:06

Fangorn2, I'm more than happy to hold Takeda even for short term. I see this being the only way to get the full value. I think the gap will still be 5%+ right up until the last minute. given I only expect annual 5% returns, why would I not.
I don't think there will be a huge sell off either. Sure the PIs like us will sell quite quickly if they hold on long enough to get Takeda paper but we make zero difference to the share price Institutions & funds are likely to be comfortable to hold Takeda and in fact certain funds will want to buy it as it will become a Top 10 Pharma company and indices funds will need it. Most people who really do not want to get Takeda Paper will sell before completion and many Takeda shareholders unhappy with the deal are already selling. So I do not see immediate high selling pressures. Still got the currency risks but let's see where the gap gets to as we get closer to completion.
Good luck all. Phil, thanks for your great contributions.

[redtom1] 16/5/2018 08:00

Value of offer today is 4924p being 2245p in cash and 2679p in shares. Shire needs to rise 17.66% to match this value.

[ruethewhirl] 16/5/2018 00:17

Mbmiah, just basing the 45 number on that it's a discount to the full offer value, but not too much of a discount ;)

Phil, you're welcome, hope you still drop by from time to time.

[philanderer] 15/5/2018 23:48

Evening rue, not quite five figures for me, but happy to to leave with what I made :-)

Luck to you and everyone else holding.

Around 4215p stateside close tonight.

[dwinn78] 15/5/2018 23:19

If that turns out to be true then perhaps the major shire players will vote this deal down .

[fangorn2] 15/5/2018 22:38

Well I certainly don't want Japanese paper(or ADR for that matter) so I'd be a seller prior to the transaction completing as every man and his dog will rush for the exit once the ADR's/Takeda stock hits.

[mbmiah] 15/5/2018 22:04

I too like 45.......I have no idea why though. I mean, I don't want to be too greedy right?I think We may be able to trade quite a bit if we get to that level cos there'll probably be quit a bit of profit taking. IMO

[ruethewhirl] 15/5/2018 21:50

Phil, a bit crass to talk figures, but what was it for you, 5 or 6 figures?

I need 4500 for 5 figures, I'm holding out for 4500.

Totally think that number is on the cards in the short - med term.