Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[2theduke] 14/1/2020 10:04

The Hardman & Co broker note is out now - it makes for a much better and researched read than yesterday's report.

[borromini1] 14/1/2020 08:10

That’s the same link that Stockstracker pollutes hundreds of BB threads with, I did not bother to click the link.

Edit: go direct to Hardman and Co analysis 9 page report ....

[ny boy] 13/1/2020 13:05

Got to stay patient with these stocks, not so long ago, STX was in the 30p’s, talking over 30p’s I have recently been accumulating (MPH), which had some more good news today. Dyor as usual

Just another reason to stay invested and add on pull backs imo

[2theduke] 13/1/2020 11:32

Reads slightly irrelevant to me, as they say £2.96 includes a U.S. deal?
Also states a U.S. deal in the "next 12 months".
Not sure how you get to an equity call unless they think the US comes after funding the paediatric study...

[paleje] 13/1/2020 09:31

Edison have increased their valuation to 296p with caveats, mention further cash requirements depending on US timing.

[78steve] 10/1/2020 16:47

Looks like the China deal was already in the price and hence not much movement in the price. Hopefully US deal will be able to move it slightly more than China deal.

[rafboy] 10/1/2020 16:39

Nice update, thanks NY Boy. Confident and measured but clearly lots of interest in the US.

[ny boy] 10/1/2020 16:21

Carl in action, difficult to read, he’s keeping everything close to his chest about US commercialization deal but as he says they are significantly de-risked now. Watch this space!




Stay patient for substantive rewards imo

If China takes off, it could be bigger than the US market, rather salivating!

[best1467] 09/1/2020 16:38

Have read some bizzarre comments on the thread today unless you are desperate for funds in that case you probably should not be investing anyway selling out at these levels is crazy I'm expecting decent numbers from the nordgine uptake along with the US deal which should see us north of £3 in the next 12months ,but if investors believe they have safer and better growth potential else were then (good luck).

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 15:49

What price action? Looking pretty average

[ny boy] 09/1/2020 15:30

I am expecting the US commercialisation deal to be announced very soon, same price action before FDA approval, looking for 250p+ I took this advance to add nearly 10,000 shares, very happy to hold.

[2theduke] 09/1/2020 14:10

Cranky I'm not sure about that. The EU market will likely be quite different to the US.
I note some very large buys in bulk last night and today, I expect we will see either director buys or something else to back up that volume.

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 10:58

Speculation: could the deal be waiting on numbers out of Germany validating uptake assumptions? The Norgine update is due on the 24th I think. They must know already since they are actually supplying but there might be a delay before they can tell potential suitors

[2theduke] 09/1/2020 10:50

Sirius, makes sense to me. I've left 50% in now, so that would be the profit from a similar entry point to yourself.
Cranky, agree on your mothballing comments. I actually am comfortable holding here now, it was the delay in any RNS that actually started this all off for me if you recall.
The wording and the China deal makes me happy enough. I do, again, believe a significant share rise is on the cards when the US comes through, despite the need to await revenues - any broker will include these in their valuations if they come alongside a decent upfront commitment.
As an aside, I maintained a decent bit of comfort from the Chairman purchase last year at 1.7ish, that was why I didn't exit earlier.
Now we wait. Finger in the air guessing, I go for end of Jan for the deal :-)

[siriusbizness] 09/1/2020 10:34

I’ve decided to take 80% of my holding off the table here and put elsewhere (CIR). Left a bit in as interested in US deal which I think will be stellar however I too think we need to see sales growth now to push this on further. After entering at just under 100p this has done me well through 2019

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 10:09

There would have to be time limits in the deal that required ASK to do a trial and submit a file. Not doing so, they would forfeit the license. They would not agree to the drug being mothballed.
I think that any investor that is wary because of the CKD drop is disengaged. What we have here is a premium priced oral iron in a heavily genericised market. A lot of branded genetics claim to be better tolerated - with zero evidence. In this crowded market, will evidence matter and will the patient experience ultimately drive the success?

[2theduke] 09/1/2020 09:20

I do think the US deal will have a material impact on the company.
This share does have a history attached that makes investors wary. It is also what makes it such an excellent opportunity for those that research it.
You could argue that China may not advance the drug at all, and all it cost the company was $11m to mothball it for their own product, albeit I do not know about the China Patent protection area (welcome thoughts on this). Having looked at ASK, it does however look like a profitable and growing business - which is a positive.
The current valuation is very low in my view, looking at the cash flows due from EU and China certainly supports £1.8 by itself.
The US will see a significant uplift. I think this event in China let people exit that didnt want to want and signalled there was no takeover on the cards - both of which squashed the share price. My ten 10c obviously.

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 08:20

I hope you are right but, ultimately, the major increases are going to come when sales show up. So, if it goes to £5 after the deals, it would still go to £10 if it justifies the investments.

[nobbygnome] 09/1/2020 07:30

I disagree. The US deal is far more significant than a China deal which is still years away from generating sales revenue. If nothing else, the upfront will be much higher (presumably). If the price is still in the 170s after they announce the deal, I will eat my (chocolate) hat!

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 07:22

I held that view but have changed my mind based on this latest data point. In the words of JM Keynes, When the facts change...etc. I just think this will be a longer haul, unfortunately. If the US deal is signed in January it will be year end before we see performance.

[nobbygnome] 09/1/2020 07:10

>> cranky

You are being ever so slightly inconsistent here. Not long ago you were suggesting the price would reach £5 (from memory) after the deal. Now you are saying the price will not move at all. As always it will be somewhere in the middle but we know not where!

You haven't sold some or all of your holding perchance....

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 06:41

I suppose the issue here is uncertainty. What is uncertain? A deal isn't uncertain. The registration was uncertain and the consequences of failure extremely severe. What's uncertain now is market demand. We've just seen published a deal in China which shows that a big Chinese firm think that there is significant market demand in China and they are willing to put in $60 plus million plus $5-10 million for a trial programme (guess). That demonstrated belief in the potential has not moved demand for the share. Similar belief demonstrated by a nascent US partner also might not change sentiment. However, if the upfront is good enough, it will allow Shield to begin its PT20 research and bring that product to adding value and that should help at least.

[nobbygnome] 08/1/2020 18:12

>> cranky

But it went up about 80% the couple of days after the FDA approval. The US licensing deal is of similar significance IMHO....

[peachie 74] 08/1/2020 18:04

Hopefully short term speculators out of the way....