Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 07/12/2019 18:49

Of course part of my point here is that if they do it now, they wouldn't have to pay the putative £50 million upfront and other milestones in the future.

[nobbygnome] 07/12/2019 18:47

The Walbrook company summary which you can access from the Shield website suggests the company 'has an achievable global peak annual sales opportunity in excess of $500 million' so around £400 million. This company would be a bargain at £500 million (about £4.40 a share) for a big Pharma with a large sales force. Yes I know the VC which owns around 50% of the company may want more but everybody has a price and I still think it's a possibility in the short term. If they wait they will have to pay a lot more.

[best1467] 07/12/2019 16:35

Have to say Nobby your previous post is spot on

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 17:04

LOL I certainly don't get upset that easily! After years on this BB I have become very thick skinned.....

[78steve] 06/12/2019 17:03

Thanks Nobby. My question was genuine. Apologies if I have upset you that was not my intention.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:59

I see you post over at IMM so am beginning to wonder if you are here just to troll me. However, I will assume your interest is genuine.

The company was not in nearly such a good position when negotiating the Norgine deal after the failed trial which never was, knocked the share price severely. Since then they have got the non inferiority result from the HtoH trial and the broad label in the US. Add in that the US market is way bigger than the market Norgine is gunning for and we can reasonably expect a much better deal with the US partner. I hesitate to mention numbers but others here have talked about $50 million upfront. Of course the deal will always be a balance between upfront, milestones and royalties so we will have to look in total at the potential payments. However, I think we can be certain that it will be way better than the Norgine deal.

And then of course there is the Chinese licensing deal as well which is imminent..... IMHO there is no doubt that a market cap of about £225 million is nowhere near sufficient if both the deals come to pass.

[78steve] 06/12/2019 16:44

Will this rise actually be backed up by numbers. So far we have 11m upfront payment from Norgine and market cap of £180m is this too high for the moment ?

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:40

Interesting comparison with SLN as the market cap of SLN was about the same before the rise from £2. Of course the companies are at different stages but it shows that even after a strong rise, it is quite possible to get further similar strong rises. The STX chart is magnificent and looks set for breakout presumably when the deal(s) is announced. The problem is like at SLN, the chart is going into blue sky and it is very difficult to predict where it might go but a doubling does indeed seem possible.

Please note I am not predicting a doubling just pointing out that SLN shows it can happen even after a strong rise.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:32

In the end 78k bought and 75k sold so I guess fair enough that it ended up where it started. But it really is easy money for the MMs if you look at the difference in the buy and sell prices on average!

[ny boy] 06/12/2019 16:16

This is mirrowing Silience Therapeutics SLN, spendva few months consolidating before trebling off 190'p's

MM's know this can do the same so still mighing a few for easy muny

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 16:03

Hope you are right 🤞

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 15:58

I got the RSP prices first thing this morning when the price was the same as it is now and there has been a massive improvement this afternoon after that fall and recovery. Why do I think the price is about to take off....

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 15:55

29640 share buy just reported, hence the rise. Someone is confident enough to spend nearly £60K on shares.

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 15:09

Thanks Nobby.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 15:01

Finncap just flipped back on to the bid from the offer on apparently nothing bought. Just the normal MM shenanigans....or is news imminent? Of course there could just be a large buy in the background....

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 14:59

Blue, something up!

[borromini1] 05/12/2019 23:40

Norgine took over the distribution reins from STX last December, they probably require two years leeway to get their house in order and get a full set of country and regional approvals and remuneration agreements in place and functioning. The next results are due soon around 24 January, they should show a big upturn but it may be patchy. It is the full year 2021 results due 2022 that need to start a solid run of 40%+ CAGR to build out revenue levels to justify the projected/expected/desired share price levels. After all 38% CAGR is the rate that Vifor have achieved with Ferinject over the last six years and that is the supposed turkey that STX and Feraccru are aiming to supplant.

[ny boy] 05/12/2019 21:43

Not forgetting a big market ...Switzerland!



"Together with the new label, we expect the recent positive result from the AEGIS-H2H phase 3b active comparator study of Feraccru(R) versus intravenously delivered Ferinject(R) will have added importance and will provide an enhanced commercial opportunity to Ewo, our Swiss commercial partner. We look forward to working with them to deliver commercial success for Feraccru(R) in Switzerland at the earliest opportunity."

[crankyman] 05/12/2019 14:29

By Europe you mean Germany and the U.K. norgine arnt launches anywhere else

[78steve] 05/12/2019 13:44

When is the next update due from Norgine with sales from Europe (UK + Germany)? I believe royalties of 25% plus are due on these sales?

[nobbygnome] 05/12/2019 12:11

Yes slowly getting back to the level before the mark down on Monday. Just shows it is MMs mucking about. There is buying pressure here and as NY boy says they routinely shake out a few weak holders.

[ny boy] 05/12/2019 11:49

Tick tock, you sense a break of 200p soon

[rafboy] 04/12/2019 11:31

Best, good post that reflects my thoughts too.

[best1467] 04/12/2019 11:27

I am expecting a decent upfront and high teens royalties with some juicy sales milestones.As for saying Deal is already in the price shows a considerable lack of understanding in the valuation it would have to be a deal similar to The Sbtx for it to have no effect on the share price.
When we get the next Nordgine numbers and the expected deals in place I would imagine this will really start to take off ,as posters have correctly pointed out when you look at the excellent progress made the valuation is way to low at this juncture

[ny boy] 04/12/2019 07:42

Nobby, I think so, the FDA broad label approval is significant, a game changer, not long before we finally break above 200p

Looking forward to hearing about the US commercialization deal to be announced.

Hopefully either we end this decade off in style or start the new decade off in style