Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 11/12/2019 18:58

I doubt the currency moves +/- makes much difference to the ultimate deal maker.
Also I don’t think we will get any announcement this close to the GE, probably later next week or the first full week after the New Year holidays

Content to hold as before the lead up to FDA broad label approval, from the early dark days of uncertainty.

[2theduke] 11/12/2019 13:28

I suppose , if someone is paying $ to buy this £ company the fx rate post election outcome will have a material impact ..

[ny boy] 10/12/2019 17:26

Marked 2p off on low volume, says it all really lol!

[ny boy] 09/12/2019 22:32

It’s usual for this stock, just a waiting game, also most investors sitting on the fence until GE result is know but I don’t think it really makes any difference on this stock,

[diversification] 09/12/2019 16:28

All buys displayed as sells, and one late reported! Mmmm, fun and games

[rafboy] 09/12/2019 11:37

We will find out soon enough where we go once the first deal is announced.

[crankyman] 08/12/2019 19:39

Increasing the value of the pipeline which will also have a sale price.

[nobbygnome] 08/12/2019 18:55

But Shield will begin to spend the cash on further research and trials.....

[crankyman] 08/12/2019 17:41

If they don’t see it as risky and want to go all in they’ll need to pay more like £1 Billion. That’s £8.50, a healthy premium on the post deals price which I expect to be around £5.

[crankyman] 08/12/2019 17:33

If they buy the company later they won’t have to pay the milestones they agreed to pay and they’ll get the cash they paid back anyway. There’s no advantage in buying now rather than later if you’re big pharma looking to do a deal now. If you think it’s a risky prospect, it’s better to lock the company in to a deal. That way you’re the only one that can buy later and you’ll pay less.

[nobbygnome] 07/12/2019 18:49

Of course part of my point here is that if they do it now, they wouldn't have to pay the putative £50 million upfront and other milestones in the future.

[nobbygnome] 07/12/2019 18:47

The Walbrook company summary which you can access from the Shield website suggests the company 'has an achievable global peak annual sales opportunity in excess of $500 million' so around £400 million. This company would be a bargain at £500 million (about £4.40 a share) for a big Pharma with a large sales force. Yes I know the VC which owns around 50% of the company may want more but everybody has a price and I still think it's a possibility in the short term. If they wait they will have to pay a lot more.

[best1467] 07/12/2019 16:35

Have to say Nobby your previous post is spot on

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 17:04

LOL I certainly don't get upset that easily! After years on this BB I have become very thick skinned.....

[78steve] 06/12/2019 17:03

Thanks Nobby. My question was genuine. Apologies if I have upset you that was not my intention.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:59

I see you post over at IMM so am beginning to wonder if you are here just to troll me. However, I will assume your interest is genuine.

The company was not in nearly such a good position when negotiating the Norgine deal after the failed trial which never was, knocked the share price severely. Since then they have got the non inferiority result from the HtoH trial and the broad label in the US. Add in that the US market is way bigger than the market Norgine is gunning for and we can reasonably expect a much better deal with the US partner. I hesitate to mention numbers but others here have talked about $50 million upfront. Of course the deal will always be a balance between upfront, milestones and royalties so we will have to look in total at the potential payments. However, I think we can be certain that it will be way better than the Norgine deal.

And then of course there is the Chinese licensing deal as well which is imminent..... IMHO there is no doubt that a market cap of about £225 million is nowhere near sufficient if both the deals come to pass.

[78steve] 06/12/2019 16:44

Will this rise actually be backed up by numbers. So far we have 11m upfront payment from Norgine and market cap of £180m is this too high for the moment ?

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:40

Interesting comparison with SLN as the market cap of SLN was about the same before the rise from £2. Of course the companies are at different stages but it shows that even after a strong rise, it is quite possible to get further similar strong rises. The STX chart is magnificent and looks set for breakout presumably when the deal(s) is announced. The problem is like at SLN, the chart is going into blue sky and it is very difficult to predict where it might go but a doubling does indeed seem possible.

Please note I am not predicting a doubling just pointing out that SLN shows it can happen even after a strong rise.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 16:32

In the end 78k bought and 75k sold so I guess fair enough that it ended up where it started. But it really is easy money for the MMs if you look at the difference in the buy and sell prices on average!

[ny boy] 06/12/2019 16:16

This is mirrowing Silience Therapeutics SLN, spendva few months consolidating before trebling off 190'p's

MM's know this can do the same so still mighing a few for easy muny

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 16:03

Hope you are right 🤞

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 15:58

I got the RSP prices first thing this morning when the price was the same as it is now and there has been a massive improvement this afternoon after that fall and recovery. Why do I think the price is about to take off....

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 15:55

29640 share buy just reported, hence the rise. Someone is confident enough to spend nearly £60K on shares.

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 15:09

Thanks Nobby.

[nobbygnome] 06/12/2019 15:01

Finncap just flipped back on to the bid from the offer on apparently nothing bought. Just the normal MM shenanigans....or is news imminent? Of course there could just be a large buy in the background....