Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 10:58

Speculation: could the deal be waiting on numbers out of Germany validating uptake assumptions? The Norgine update is due on the 24th I think. They must know already since they are actually supplying but there might be a delay before they can tell potential suitors

[2theduke] 09/1/2020 10:50

Sirius, makes sense to me. I've left 50% in now, so that would be the profit from a similar entry point to yourself.
Cranky, agree on your mothballing comments. I actually am comfortable holding here now, it was the delay in any RNS that actually started this all off for me if you recall.
The wording and the China deal makes me happy enough. I do, again, believe a significant share rise is on the cards when the US comes through, despite the need to await revenues - any broker will include these in their valuations if they come alongside a decent upfront commitment.
As an aside, I maintained a decent bit of comfort from the Chairman purchase last year at 1.7ish, that was why I didn't exit earlier.
Now we wait. Finger in the air guessing, I go for end of Jan for the deal :-)

[siriusbizness] 09/1/2020 10:34

I’ve decided to take 80% of my holding off the table here and put elsewhere (CIR). Left a bit in as interested in US deal which I think will be stellar however I too think we need to see sales growth now to push this on further. After entering at just under 100p this has done me well through 2019

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 10:09

There would have to be time limits in the deal that required ASK to do a trial and submit a file. Not doing so, they would forfeit the license. They would not agree to the drug being mothballed.
I think that any investor that is wary because of the CKD drop is disengaged. What we have here is a premium priced oral iron in a heavily genericised market. A lot of branded genetics claim to be better tolerated - with zero evidence. In this crowded market, will evidence matter and will the patient experience ultimately drive the success?

[2theduke] 09/1/2020 09:20

I do think the US deal will have a material impact on the company.
This share does have a history attached that makes investors wary. It is also what makes it such an excellent opportunity for those that research it.
You could argue that China may not advance the drug at all, and all it cost the company was $11m to mothball it for their own product, albeit I do not know about the China Patent protection area (welcome thoughts on this). Having looked at ASK, it does however look like a profitable and growing business - which is a positive.
The current valuation is very low in my view, looking at the cash flows due from EU and China certainly supports £1.8 by itself.
The US will see a significant uplift. I think this event in China let people exit that didnt want to want and signalled there was no takeover on the cards - both of which squashed the share price. My ten 10c obviously.

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 08:20

I hope you are right but, ultimately, the major increases are going to come when sales show up. So, if it goes to £5 after the deals, it would still go to £10 if it justifies the investments.

[nobbygnome] 09/1/2020 07:30

I disagree. The US deal is far more significant than a China deal which is still years away from generating sales revenue. If nothing else, the upfront will be much higher (presumably). If the price is still in the 170s after they announce the deal, I will eat my (chocolate) hat!

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 07:22

I held that view but have changed my mind based on this latest data point. In the words of JM Keynes, When the facts change...etc. I just think this will be a longer haul, unfortunately. If the US deal is signed in January it will be year end before we see performance.

[nobbygnome] 09/1/2020 07:10

>> cranky

You are being ever so slightly inconsistent here. Not long ago you were suggesting the price would reach £5 (from memory) after the deal. Now you are saying the price will not move at all. As always it will be somewhere in the middle but we know not where!

You haven't sold some or all of your holding perchance....

[crankyman] 09/1/2020 06:41

I suppose the issue here is uncertainty. What is uncertain? A deal isn't uncertain. The registration was uncertain and the consequences of failure extremely severe. What's uncertain now is market demand. We've just seen published a deal in China which shows that a big Chinese firm think that there is significant market demand in China and they are willing to put in $60 plus million plus $5-10 million for a trial programme (guess). That demonstrated belief in the potential has not moved demand for the share. Similar belief demonstrated by a nascent US partner also might not change sentiment. However, if the upfront is good enough, it will allow Shield to begin its PT20 research and bring that product to adding value and that should help at least.

[nobbygnome] 08/1/2020 18:12

>> cranky

But it went up about 80% the couple of days after the FDA approval. The US licensing deal is of similar significance IMHO....

[peachie 74] 08/1/2020 18:04

Hopefully short term speculators out of the way....

[crankyman] 08/1/2020 16:06

Given that the price is set by market makers and not demand and supply it’s not surprising. It’s still a guess until they start paying out. We should be prepared for it not rising based on the US deal

[montyhedge] 08/1/2020 15:22

Still can't believe these under 200p.

[2theduke] 08/1/2020 14:57

Thanks for the link. Also he confirmed royalties on top of the upfront and milestones. Seems a good deal. Only questions left on that deal is the term of the China patent protection.

[crankyman] 08/1/2020 14:51

Not an expert but maybe a local firm with 90% share of sales can convince the authorities to just do something quicker and cheaper

[nobbygnome] 08/1/2020 14:35

And nothing I've read or heard suggests we won't necessarily get a US deal in the next few weeks. Essentially he seems sensitive about the lack of delivery for last year but I don't think it means that we will have to wait months.

[crankyman] 08/1/2020 14:08

Sorry, telephone interview. Nothing new. Carl Sterritt still alive but everything else, we knew

[crankyman] 08/1/2020 13:56

Video up

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/shield-therapeutics-discuss-their-chinese-licencing-agreement-plus-john-meyer-on-sirius-and-arc-minerals-203665a/

[2theduke] 08/1/2020 13:17

I think given the announcement that it implies as sale of the company is not pending. This was an option at this stage vs distribution agreement with the US in my view. Perhaps this has led some sellers to exit.
Other than that, this event has allowed some liquidity for people to sell - as I found out, it really wasn’t possible to sell in the low liquidity prior to this

[crankyman] 08/1/2020 12:41

China could be 18 months to market. Depends how quickly they can turn the trial around. It’s only a 12 week study if they need to do that.

[siriusbizness] 08/1/2020 11:42

At a loss as to what’s holding this back today. I guess no one is interested in buying these shares at present. After so much movement on the FDA approval I thought we would see some more action here. Maybe after lunch news will get out. Would be nice to get an interview too