Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 02/12/2019 17:45

They do that a lot, to try and mug some into selling, buy orders to fill no doubt.

[martindkelly9] 02/12/2019 08:59

Yes they are :-) Why is the 'official' spread/ask so different from the real one? I've seen this happen several times but I've never heard a good explanation.

[nobbygnome] 02/12/2019 08:21

The trades at 192.12 are all buys....

[borromini1] 01/12/2019 23:54

Great news from last August, Vifor reported that the global intravenous iron market increased 18% over same period last year. More for STX to go at.

Vifor’s Injectafer, approved in USA in 2013 (USA name for Ferinject) now has higher in market sales than Ferinject in Europe, however, Vifor make twice the net sales revenue figure from Europe compared to the USA. Go figure.

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2019 21:29

He was wrong last time before the approval and he will be wrong this time. Those with so called rose tinted spectacles called it exactly correctly. Some people just don't learn....

[borromini1] 01/12/2019 20:03

Peachie - No shorts on me, maybe you need to direct your statements at Richard Griffiths.

[peachie 74] 01/12/2019 19:14

In fact he was very vocal before the FDA decision..... then disappeared surprisingly !

[peachie 74] 01/12/2019 19:12

He crops up every so often when he no doubt has taken a short position

[borromini1] 01/12/2019 18:24

Nobby - just trying to avoid the heavily rose tinted spectacles. plenty on here providing unbounded enthusiasm.
USA deal could be anytime soon, certainly looking good, next confirmation of rate of operational progress will presumably be STX business and trading update due around 24 January 2020.

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2019 17:50

I don't quite know why borromini1 is deliberately taking the negative stance. Ferrinject which is more expensive and has more side effects has built a large market. Feraccru should take the majority of that market. That is all you need to know

[borromini1] 01/12/2019 17:49

Richard Griffiths sells 2.24 million shares last Thursday and the price moves up 4%, looks good. Richard has sold one third of his holding and keep two thirds, that adds a bit of liquidity to the pot.

[best1467] 01/12/2019 16:08

Feraccru will gain market share because a large percentage of patients in the secondary iron market are not compatible to the over the counter iron supplements as Carl as discussed in some detail.

[crankyman] 01/12/2019 13:46

I think you'll find the daily dose of Feraccru is 60 mg not 30 grams. Ferrous sulphate dose is 400mg-600mg per day. You need to take more because it is not absorbed. Feraccru is much better absorbed.

Nevertheless, branded generics and generics will always take the volume of the market. But the volumes and margins to wholesalers and retailers are huge plus the marketing costs. Prescription medicines are also paid for by insurance. The impact of that last aspect I don't actually know but it could be significant.

[borromini1] 01/12/2019 12:22

Marie - STX have set out all their stall to go head to head with the well established market leading Ferinject for the primary market for prescription iron drugs.

Meanwhile the secondary market for iron food supplements is being slowly taken by Active Iron. Active Iron now regularly tops the popularity sort order for Iron products on Holland and Barrett’s UK web site.

Active Iron only sells online in the USA but citizens are permitted to self medicate up to 25mg of Iron daily which is a lot closer to the maximum prescription only 60mg equivalent of daily Iron for Feraccru (1 x 30mg capsule twice daily, total 60mg daily Fe for Feraccru). In the UK iron supplements are usually limited to a 14mg single tablet/capsule daily. UK government states taking 17mg or less a day of iron supplements is unlikely to cause any harm. But continue taking a higher dose if advised to by your GP.

Last April Solvotrin signed a distribution deal for Active Iron with a Chinese distributor with access to upto 300,000 pharmacies in China plus online e-commerce channels, in this respect they are likely to be years ahead of STX who will likely need to carry out further clinical trials with local participants before they can have any prospect of sales royalties from the Chinese market.

Active Iron at current full retail cost is higher per mg of Fe than STX want for Ferracru from the NHS but becomes lower during half price offers and the per capsule dose is set to get under the government limit.
UK pricing
Retail Active Iron equiv. to 14mg Fe, 30 capsules = £16.00 or £8.00 on offer
3.810 p per 1 mg Fe, 1.905 p per 1 mg Fe on offer
NHS Feraccru equiv. to 30mg Fe, 56 capsules = £47.60
2.833 p per 1 mg Fe
USA pricing
Retail Active Iron equiv. to 25mg Fe, 60 capsules = $25.00
1.666 cents per 1 mg Fe

Active Iron is not a generic Iron tablet it has a different mechanism but similar results to Feraccru in having a lower level of side effects than classic Iron Sulphate.

So the question is how critical is the secondary market to the expected overall success of STX and their ability to recoup development costs and bring home the bacon?

Corrections to dosage applied thanks cranky.

[ny boy] 01/12/2019 08:52

Marie

Nobby has answered your question, best ensure you do your own due diligence but I am not bothered about the price action since FDA broad label approval, a few will sell out, become impatient, maybe need the cash for Xmas shopping etc

STX said by end of Q4 for US commercialization deal news, to me it makes little difference when it comes, as I won’t be selling, unless there is a mega bid or bids that come through say next year.

Happy holding. Long as necessary, started buying in the dark days of 30p’s pre FDA news, (which did eliminate a great deal of the risk).

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2019 08:09

Not sure why you would wait as the deal could be announced any day now. The cynics would say the recent rise means that some insiders know it is imminent.

[marie1980] 01/12/2019 07:43

Many thanks Nobby.

Very helpful. I followed you and looking forward for your other comments.

I’ve decided to wait for a week or so before I invest here.

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2019 07:39

PS You have to say they are extremely vulnerable to a takeover at this level. Yes there is the VC who can block it but everyone has a price.....

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2019 07:35

>> Marie

There is certainly no doubt they will do a deal with someone as they cannot sell the drug themselves. The only question is with whom and how much are the payments particularly the upfront. Then it is a question of how much of the massive market they will take and because of the brave decision to do the non inferiority trial against iv and the side effect and cost advantages, it is difficult to see the drug not taking a majority of the post oral salt market.

So yes I agree it is extremely low risk by the standards of Aim! And yes it should have gone higher after the approval which is probably good because there is a big void into which it can go once a deal is signed. Plus the chart looks exceptionally good especially with the rise in the last 2 trading days after the very long flagpole and pennant.

So what's not to like.....

[marie1980] 30/11/2019 21:05

Ny Boy,

What’s your thought ?

Why after FDA approval, shield is stuck < 200p ? Even after BoD boy couple of months ago ?!

With FDA approval I would have expect mcap should be half a million no ?

[marie1980] 30/11/2019 20:47

Hi all,

I’m interested in this hare and happy to put 1/3 of my ISA.

Other 2 share I’m keen on is metro bank and Nuformix.

But I apologies but am I right in saying that this could be the most safe stock in AIM right now ?

What could possibly go wrong here ?

Also BoD bought last month no ?

[ny boy] 29/11/2019 08:23

Mr 10k buyer is out this morning.

[rafboy] 29/11/2019 08:14

Nobby, nice to hear.

[nobbygnome] 29/11/2019 07:58

I was out and about late yesterday without a phone signal and so didn't see the late price action and big purchase. I think everything is looking extremely encouraging for the short (and medium) term. I have read the Shares article and it is unusually accurate for such a missive. Although it doesn't give a reccomendation it nevertheless is extremely positive about the future.