Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[marko419] 14/1/2025 17:23

How much have you ploughed in here then patt........hope your not going to lose another 200k this year.

[purchaseatthetop] 14/1/2025 15:19

Olosnah. I describe Q4 23 to Q3 24 are a period of transformation.
Prescriptions have nearly doubled and net revenue per prescription rising fast because they finally got their act together.
I disagree with your maths! An extra 13.3k prescriptions in Q4 24 means 57k prescriptions at $210 is $12m. We only need 50k at $210 to hit $10m. That is 6.5 extra/3 = 2,166 a month.

[olosnah1] 14/1/2025 15:04

Skcots48 - 2024 was not a good year all in all, which ever way they try to spin it.
Q1'24 US revenue was lower than Q4'23, Q2 was good, then Q3 was up 4.5% (something to do with summer buying pattern, which I presume effects all pharma and would have been a known event)!
Reading the OAP placing literature it was obvious they realise there is a problem of under performance. The issue is what can be done, espically if it lies on viatris side of the sales team.
Q4 revenue needs to exceed $10m to know we are moving in the right direction.
Or looking at it another way, an extra $2.8m / $210 per rx. = 13,333 in Q4 / 3 = 4444 a month / 100 reps = 45 per rep per month!

[olosnah1] 14/1/2025 14:18

Hargreaves currently selling at 2.30 and also offering to buy my shares at 2.30.
The share price is currently down 23% from the recent placing of 3p (or down 42% from the original 4p OAP were going to buy at)
Long term holder and a very large (stupidly) holding.
I think I am correct that STX end up with a 43% margin from the net sales, taking into account COGS, 5% royalty to Vitra, etc? In which case net income needs to exceed $7.5m a month, of which $3.2m ends up with STX to cover costs/overheads.
Or 36k rx per month at average $210.
Of course, I may be incorrect, as I was regarding the loan covenant/placing.
Whichever way you look, we desperately need an inflection point on the scripts written. My glass half full thinking disappeared a couple of years ago and only hope is some kind of exit near a 8p.

[purchaseatthetop] 14/1/2025 14:15

I am going to add a few now. 2.35p odd with AOP paying 3p! Cannot last.
Actually cost 2.3p.

[supernumerary] 13/1/2025 21:36

21% non- voting is perfectly normal for AIM. And what AOP want is what makes them the most money. If the results look good, owning the whole thing might well be their preferred option.

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 21:14

27/4/23 RNS for sales in 2022:

“Europe/Australia
Norgine, our partner with responsibility for Europe and Australia, saw 10% growth in Feraccru® volume during 2022. Germany now represents approximately 72% of the total unit sales of Feraccru® for Norgine, followed by the UK with c.18%.”

Per the website

Sales in the UK were £496k. That makes German sales about £2m in 2022.

Sales in the UK in the first 10 months of 2024 have been about £970k. So we could expect total for the year of around £1.2m. Would be very interesting to see if Germany is experiencing a similar rise. Must be rising fast aswell as UK was only 18% of the total and H1 24 royalties were almost as large as the whole of 2023.

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 19:04

Supernumerary. If only 75% voted, snd AOP snd concert party voted in full, it would mean that only 21% of the 46% not concert party actually voted. Which is very low.

But anyway, AOP want a listing. So they can sell their shares at a profit.

[skcots48] 13/1/2025 19:00

So for long term holders rather than new investors what exactly do you propose we do to be careful?.Our mistakes were made long ago not to get out.And if it goes at 3p I've got to own it.For new investors they can get in at 2.5p so they have minimal ability to lose if AOP come in.If they don't come in it's because they're hitting their targets and we all make money.Well that's my take

[supernumerary] 13/1/2025 18:10

patt - 'getting 75% to agree with a delisting'. I hope you realise that PW is wrong, as usual? It's 75% of votes cast not 75% of shares. So if there were to be an application to delist and only 75% of shares were voted, then it would only need 56% (75% of 75%) to push it through.

Not too hard I wouldn't have thought - how many do AOP currently hold?

[qipincha] 13/1/2025 17:39

Pwhite, US list was previously mentioned

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 17:23

Which is where I am sure it will end up. For now though we just need a decent Q4 24 update showing over 50k prescriptions at over $200 average. That’s all. We can all reassess when we have the newest data which should be around end Jan.

[pwhite73] 13/1/2025 16:56

The requirement in this case is only 20.47% as AOP already hold 54.53%.

I am not saying the company is bad but it is patently clear at this stage in its trajectory the company should not be listed on the AIM but can be better served on a US stock index that appreciates pharmacological breakthroughs.

Be careful.

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 16:50

“Process for Cancellation

Under the AIM Rules, it is a requirement that the Cancellation must be approved by shareholders holding not less than 75% of votes cast by shareholders at a general meeting. Accordingly, the Company's notice of Annual General Meeting will contain a special resolution to approve the Cancellation (the "Cancellation Resolution").

Furthermore, Rule 41 of the AIM Rules requires any AIM company that wishes the London Stock Exchange to cancel the admission of its shares to trading on AIM to notify shareholders and to separately inform the London Stock Exchange of its preferred cancellation date at least 20 clear business days prior to such date. In addition, a period of at least five clear business days following shareholders' approval of the Cancellation is required before the Cancellation may become effective.

In accordance with AIM Rule 41, the Directors have notified the London Stock Exchange of the Company's intention, subject to the Cancellation Resolution being passed at the Annual General Meeting on 26 November 2024, to cancel the Company's admission of the Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM. Accordingly, if the Cancellation Resolution is passed by the shareholders, it is expected that the Cancellation will become effective at 7.00 a.m. on 31 December 2024.”

Good luck with getting 75% to agree with a delisting. It is usually only possible when combined with some sort of crisis.

[pwhite73] 13/1/2025 16:46

Skcots - "If that happens it goes to 6 to 8p depending on highest price in the proceeding year"

Wrong. A delisting to take the company private and a takeover by buying out the other shareholders are not the same. The AIM is currently a graveyard of delisted companies claiming lack of liquidity and the company/shareholders can better be served by private investment. Furthermore if they did go for a full takeover they only have to hang on until October 2025 to offer you 3p.

Just be careful here for it appears to me that's exactly the direction this stock is going in.

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 16:33

Funny. AOP pay 3p a few weeks ago and are now supposedly selling at 2.33p when the company is now cashed up with around $13m in the bank snd cash burn dropping by the month. Seems like my next buy will be a really good price considering that any decent Q4 24 update will send the share materially upwards.

There are 1b shares in issue plus. Not sure that a 1.5m sell is really material!

[zeus19] 13/1/2025 16:16

Each one was worth £11.5k LMAO

[skcots48] 13/1/2025 15:58

If that happens it goes to 6 to 8p depending on highest price in the proceeding year

[pwhite73] 13/1/2025 15:54

3 x 500k sell just gone through at 2.33p. That's not PI money. Warned you all months ago about this stock. With their increased holding to 54.53% is it the intention of AOP to delist and take the company private?

[qipincha] 13/1/2025 13:31

So far, what we have been told was good volume of sales and improved unit price of Q4. The exact number will be released shortly

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 12:44

Base7. Only when it is generating cash positive!

[base7] 13/1/2025 12:34

the majority of our revenues are in US$s so we may have hoped that would improve our SP?

[zeus19] 13/1/2025 11:40

A friend of mine emailed investor relations querying the lack of holdings RNS. This was their responseMany thanks for your email. I hope to be able to assist you with your enquiry. In regards to the recent fundraise I can confirm that the number of shares in issues is as stated on our website (1,041,690,484) and this is confirmed by the filing with Companies House and AIM in regards to the allotment of shares issued. AIM Rule 26 | Shield Therapeutics plc (link) SH01 Return of Allotment of Shares (link) Unfortunately we do not have control over the postings on the London Stock Exchange but will however bring this to their attention. In regards to the holdings RNS you refer to, we can confirm that this was included within the RNS published on the 24th December 2024 which also included the details of the results of the General Meeting and the Tita Voting Rights. Result of General Meeting & Total Voting Rights | Shield Therapeutics plc I hope I have been able to assist you but please do not hesitate to contact me should this not be the case.

[purchaseatthetop] 13/1/2025 11:13

My plan right now.
Watch the share price slowly drift on really low volumes.
Wait till 21st Jan or so and see what the Nov 24 UK prescription data is.
If it is above £120k for the month then the European sales are really rising and nobody else knows about it
Buy as many asI can before the Q4 24 update that should arrive end of Jan/early Feb. Normally a bit earlier but this is also year end so they might need a few extra days.