Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[frrinvest] 07/6/2020 09:31

Deal end of summer or could just be round the corner. Take your pick!

[nobbygnome] 07/6/2020 07:51

Much easier to do a deal with one partner than multiple partners. Overall I don't think that will affect the upfront or the sales royalties. Don't forget the purchaser if they are going to sub license, will probably just be selling in one area so sub licensing will maximise profitability for them beyond their core area which increases the potential for them. Just a comment about the size of the company which does the deal. Of course we would all like to see a big company like Pfizer or GSK. However, there is an argument to say that smaller midcap Pharma will do a more efficient job because they are likely to be more focused on this project. On balance I think I would prefer a big company but there are pros and cons.

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 23:06

We have not been told there is one partner “farming out “either. The main thing is one major US buyer. Let’s not negative spin something where there is no negative spin. You’ve sold. So why back here ? Not to encourage us holders to sell as an act of human kindness

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 22:57

Why on earth would shield collapse !!!! Give up Cranky. Not doing yourself any favours mate. And your futuristic views have an agenda. I think you said there would be a drop to 55p again. Good luck waiting

[crankyman] 06/6/2020 22:13

When you say the whole pie - I think the prospect of a margin above 20% has faded in my mind. We're told that there is one partner who will farm out the indications to separate specialists and take on a part themselves. That will mean a further cut for them as middle men. If it works - great - but I can't see Shield ending up with a very large share in the end - probably 15%. That would still be a handsome revenue stream. However, we are also told there is a lot of interest. Presumably, if this was the case, there would be other options to turn to if one was stalling in the hope that Shield would collapse and they could pick up Accrufer in a firesale. It's a bit high risk.

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 20:50

I can't see him stepping back in, whatever happens. I still have a feeling at the back of my mind that the Americans want the whole pie, and that is why it's taking so long to finalize. If that was the case, I feel CS would have opposed this as co-founder, and after much deliberation, stepped down. Just MHO, based on frequent dealings on a personal level. Could be completely wrong, of course !!

[crankyman] 06/6/2020 20:43

I don't doubt the previous CEO did everything possible to get a deal - it's just that his strategy and the selling of himself and the company as a viable partner -in the end- hasn't delivered it. Maybe trust was eroded. Probably the covid situation didn't help. There is a potential that, once a deal is signed (if it is signed) Sterritt steps back into the job. There's nothing to stop him.

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 19:50

Just a bit of fun re peachies comment concerning Carl S ! Hopefully a good inspiration for him staying on to help push the US deal through on good terms.. I believe he holds just over 10 million shares.

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2020 13:51

>> dave 10 million shares??

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 10:41

10 million shares - now that's what I call a proper, exciting investment!!

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 10:26

Welcome back NY Boy. I was beginning to think you are actually Carl Sterritt after we hadn’t heard from you !! Great points Nobby.

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 09:58

Morning Nobby, Yep, valid, salient points, well made. I feel like they have have turned the corner, and things will go smoothly from here on, as they have a clear pathway finally(fingers crossed)! I’d buy more if I had spare funds, but in near max level for me. Hi NY, hope you’re well. Good play on BP - wish I had purchased more(got some at £3.13, but then stopped). Funny how the mass sell off affects even rational minds. Lesson learnt this time!! GLA.

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2020 09:15

>> dave That is a very good point about taking stock of where we are. Last Autumn when we were awaiting the deal, the price was in the 180s, if not higher. What has actually changed since then yet now the price is below £1? Yes there has been a largely inconsequential problem with a trial (yes I know they had to repay the money to Norgine which is material), the CEO left and there has been a further delay. On the plus side they have signed a Chinese deal with an upfront which more than covers the Norgine payment So ultimately you have to say the asset is worth more or less the same as it was before. The patents are valid until 2035 so the loss of 6 months is neither here nor there. Anyway it seems they are already gearing up in terms of stock for the US partner to launch at the end of this year which was always the stated plan. So for me little has really changed and there is clear value at this level. Just IMHO and DYOR....

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2020 09:07

>> bor Bizarre post. So now you are predicting the past (will this and other delays drop the share price from 180GBX to 100GBX)! Wel done that takes some doing.... Because of the mode of action, a capsule taken twice daily is bound to perform less well than an iv drug in the first few months. However, anaemia is a chronic didsease and patients and physicians are looking at the long term effect not just the next 2 months. There are distinct disadvantages of the iv approach, in terms of overdosing at the start, inflexibility in the iron levels and the cost and inconvenience of going into hospital to have the procedure. There is also the current problem of vulnerable people attending hospital due to Covid 19 which is probably going to be an issue for the next year maybe longer. If you look at the whole picture there is no doubt IMHO that Ferracru will be the preferred drug over Ferrinject.

[ny boy] 06/6/2020 09:01

Just popped in to say hello, happy to hold, I will check back here in Q4 for an update Stay safe, happy holidays

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 08:56

Reading through all the data again, as I needed to refocus on why I invested here originally. It just reiterated the massive potential. Sky really is the limit in x years time. Facts speak for themselves and everything else is merely background noise. I need to remember that and stop micro managing! Good luck to all the patient!

[peachie 74] 05/6/2020 22:50

For you as an investor it’s a negative. I feel the same , but perhaps they really are after the BEST deal and not being steam rolled into a sub optimal deal. I don’t think the BOD and main investors are taking their time on purpose ! The founder was the CEO btw. He only left once !!! :)) And him and Tim sound like best mates !

[best1467] 05/6/2020 11:43

A deal will be done but it's a negative how long it's taking along with the H2H Debacle and the Founder and CEO departing. The current CEO stated earlier this year a deal in first half of the year now we have by the end of summer I just hope when it arrives it's a suitable partner who can fully exploit the massive potential I'm slightly more interested in Nordgines sales growth in the last 3 months at the moment

[borromini1] 05/6/2020 11:12

EKCS - thanks for your reply, I may be wrong. The interest in the H2H analysis is in the 0 to 12 weeks period and how that competes with the proven beneficial immediacy of Ferinject, the STX simplistic presentation bar chart shows a distinct difference in performance in the first period with Feraccru catching up later. In early February I discussed this with Tim and his response was that the detailed analysis paper to be published soon will provide much better insight into the early better than depicted performance shown by the presentation bar chart. The impression given was that the detailed analysis would have a positive impact on the equivalence performance in relation to Ferinject in the first twelve weeks. This and the article as a whole would further support the value and pricing strategy for Feraccru in all subsequent pricing negotiations, whether used by Norgine or in conjunction with the US deal. That is why the error and delay is a shame and has a broad range of consequences not fully recognised on this BB. Will it stop the US deal by the end of summer or by the end of 2020, probably not, will this and other delays drop the share price from 180 GBX to 100 GBX, yes.

[nobbygnome] 05/6/2020 09:55

>> shandy I agree with regard to the reference to Summer 2020. They didn't have to put that so it's very revealing IMHO!

[ekcs] 05/6/2020 09:51

@borromini1: With your definitive statements it sounds like you're actually in the know. If you study the various presentations/publications on the H2H data (UEGW 19, ECCO 20 etc...) critically the data presented goes out to 52 weeks. The project the company seems to be undertaking, listening to the CEO, is specifically relooking at the 12 week timepoint. Nobody has ever or is currently contesting that the ITT population just missed the p<0.05 target (and that will not and cannot change) and that further to the March 20 PR, unfortunately that (technically) gives the study a negative result compared to the March 19 statement. However iron deficiency is a chronic disease caused by age and lifestyle-related chronic diseases, e.g. CHRONIC kidney disease, CHRONIC heart failure, crohn's and colitis etc.... Therefore the long term data is likely where the real diamonds are in the H2H dataset and that data seemingly is not remotely being challenged (why would it be as it is observational and never subject to prospective statistical analysis according to the company). I guess they may have to make allowances in the warranties a 3rd party might be wanting in a deal structure to accommodate any further -ve findings in the project they are undertaking, but One would imagine they are just as likely to ID additional +ve findings in that project. Unless One is on the inside One doesn't know how long this US deal 'piece of string' is, but it is clear that such negotiations are complex and lengthy. In presentations past the former CEO said they worked on the China deal (the huge potential value of which simply has not been appreciated or recognised in the SP) for almost a year if I remember correctly. In his presentation last night the CEO (who seems like a pretty conservative guy when you watch and listen to his numerous past presentations) was fairly definitive and positive about the likelihood of a US deal. He'd be a fool to be so positive if he didn't have the information to back it up and give him the confidence to say what he said so clearly in answer to a specific question. DYOR... there's plenty of information out there from covering analysts as well as the company's own pronouncements.

[shandypants2] 05/6/2020 09:35

Borromini i think you are one of the most negative posters i have ever read. Do you actually hold STX stock? Always remember your active iron post just before FDA approval (guessing you found that via Amazon). The H2H results are already known, this review is clearly to get some independent verification - the results between weeks 12 and 52 weeks speak for themselves. Feraccru is non inferior to IV. H2H wasn't used in FDA approval so will not stop or delay a US deal. The presentation states US deal summer of 2020. They could have been more conservative and said H2, they didn't.

[borromini1] 05/6/2020 09:25

Nobby - the complexity of the task has and will delay the US deal, the H2H error is only one factor of many to contribute to that delay.