Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 22:01

You do have to expect the terms of the deal will be quite impressive though. With Pharma desperate for approved products, there should be a healthy competition. It is clearly a seller's market...

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 21:59

>> cranky

So you are saying £5-£6 whereas some others here think the deal is already in the price. I guess somewhere in between....

[secret investor] 03/12/2019 21:14

Presumably it is the insurers who are in charge - they pay the piper. If they can solve patient x's problem at a much lower cost than before, without having to lower premiums, then they will profit. The doctors will have to do what will enable them to get paid.

There was a large after-hours buy today (132k shares @ 189.5p) - things are certainly more active than a few weeks ago!

[2theduke] 03/12/2019 17:38

@cranky. That is exactly correct in my view. It’s about a skilled player stating there is a market that can be utilised.
We all know there is a market, ferinject shows us that. Whether someone can incentivise doctors or health providers to switch to a potentially lower profit product is going to be interesting (in the us)

[ekcs] 03/12/2019 16:41

I guess the significance of the upfront is that it shows the partner's commitment (and gives them plenty of cash thus taking the potential of a cash raise off the table), but presumably in a licence deal the real value is in royalties and the partner's ability to execute. Can't see it makes any difference if it is this side or the other side of NEw Year. Haven't they said they were aiming for Q4 but wouldn't be forced into getting something done just to meet an unnecessary timeline. Better they get it right than rushed. Isn't there a big global healthcare investor conference in January? Perhaps that's their target? WHo knows!!

[rafboy] 03/12/2019 16:03

These large trades that keep appearing suggest to me a deal is coming. Just my personal view.

[crankyman] 03/12/2019 15:29

The key effect to the deal is not the cash directly (though that is, after all, cash and can be used to capitalise the R&D needed for the pipeline), it is that someone who knows what they are talking about has put up a lot of money and *believes* in the potential of the product. That belief will flick a switch for this company. The price will rise a lot more than people are expecting but that will come back to fundamentals. I'd expect to see some big highs - maybe £5 or £6 and then a fall back to around £4 before it drifts again.

[ny boy] 03/12/2019 15:15

Flight to safety going on during this sudden market sell off, we should see more buyers parking cash here over the short term.

[rafboy] 03/12/2019 13:53

I think the price will rise on a deal. How much by depends on the deal.

[secret investor] 03/12/2019 13:47

On 78steve's suggestion that a US deal is already priced-in, it's worth pointing out that the share price peaked at 188p in early April 2016 (shortly after the IPO). In the intervening 3.5 years then we've had EMA approval, the Norgine deal, growing sales and revenues, and FDA approval - and the share price is currently only 188p (the same as in April 2016)!

[78steve] 03/12/2019 13:30

Does anyone know what the market value of ferinject is which is a competitor so we can see what the potential is for feraccru

[ny boy] 03/12/2019 13:20

They are looking for more mug sellers to fill buy orders.

US deal will be announced just a question of this side of the NY (as Company have previously indicated, or just after to start the new decade off in style.

Market correction may have started, so investors will view this as a safe haven, great news coming, not any need to sell

[78steve] 03/12/2019 12:42

Then again if management have said a deal was to be done before eoy then who knows it could come at anytime

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 12:32

We are broadly at the same level as after the approval. I don’t think a deal was immediately priced in 4 months ago so to me there is clearly upside from here. How much depends on the nature of the deal, who it’s with and the size of the payments particularly the upfront.

Also don’t forget the licensing deal for China which is also imminent. There has been debate on here about the potential size of the upfront payment. Personally I think it will not be substantial because the partner will have to pay for a phase III trial but others disagree. So definitely more upside from that too as I am absolutely sure that is not priced in particularly if there is a half decent payment.

[2theduke] 03/12/2019 12:26

I dont think they'll be a deal announced this year now, it's getting late and approaching holiday slow down time.
Makes sense some people will sell and come back later, also it's unusual for management to be so quiet. Last guidance remains aims for both deals in this quarter, so guess they'll say something shortly. I'm not expecting anything other than "they need more time" and a small sell off related to this comment.

[78steve] 03/12/2019 12:04

After the broad label US approval people are probably in no doubt there will some sort of deal and so that is probably all priced in. The price may move depending on the size of the deal. dyor

[rafboy] 03/12/2019 11:19

Just a few bored traders selling this morning I suspect. Quite a nice entry point now if you are thinking of buying. Good odds on a deal before end of December I would have thought.

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 10:06

Because they were keeping the price at that level to get enough shares to fulfill the buy. Once it is completed there is no longer any buying pressure to keep the price at that level so down we go on a few sells.

[luisfrg] 03/12/2019 09:57

Why would a buy cause s fall?

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 09:42

I suspect that is a buy which has been worked over a while, was completed this morning and hence the fall.

A deal will surely come here. It is just a question of when , with whom and how much the payments are!

[luisfrg] 03/12/2019 09:39

I can buy at 185.70 very strange

[secret investor] 03/12/2019 09:38

Someone just bought 127k of shares (£250k) at 193p - the ask is 186p - WTF?!

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 09:31

Yes Finncap forcing the price down. The next best offer is still 194p!

[ny boy] 03/12/2019 09:29

Tree shake to mug a few more, this has been going on every decade since the 30’s. I remember the 120p to 100p just before FDA news. That left a few unhappy sellers!

[luisfrg] 03/12/2019 09:28

Why the drop?