Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[rafboy] 06/12/2019 14:59

Blue, something up!

[borromini1] 05/12/2019 23:40

Norgine took over the distribution reins from STX last December, they probably require two years leeway to get their house in order and get a full set of country and regional approvals and remuneration agreements in place and functioning. The next results are due soon around 24 January, they should show a big upturn but it may be patchy. It is the full year 2021 results due 2022 that need to start a solid run of 40%+ CAGR to build out revenue levels to justify the projected/expected/desired share price levels. After all 38% CAGR is the rate that Vifor have achieved with Ferinject over the last six years and that is the supposed turkey that STX and Feraccru are aiming to supplant.

[ny boy] 05/12/2019 21:43

Not forgetting a big market ...Switzerland!



"Together with the new label, we expect the recent positive result from the AEGIS-H2H phase 3b active comparator study of Feraccru(R) versus intravenously delivered Ferinject(R) will have added importance and will provide an enhanced commercial opportunity to Ewo, our Swiss commercial partner. We look forward to working with them to deliver commercial success for Feraccru(R) in Switzerland at the earliest opportunity."

[crankyman] 05/12/2019 14:29

By Europe you mean Germany and the U.K. norgine arnt launches anywhere else

[78steve] 05/12/2019 13:44

When is the next update due from Norgine with sales from Europe (UK + Germany)? I believe royalties of 25% plus are due on these sales?

[nobbygnome] 05/12/2019 12:11

Yes slowly getting back to the level before the mark down on Monday. Just shows it is MMs mucking about. There is buying pressure here and as NY boy says they routinely shake out a few weak holders.

[ny boy] 05/12/2019 11:49

Tick tock, you sense a break of 200p soon

[rafboy] 04/12/2019 11:31

Best, good post that reflects my thoughts too.

[best1467] 04/12/2019 11:27

I am expecting a decent upfront and high teens royalties with some juicy sales milestones.As for saying Deal is already in the price shows a considerable lack of understanding in the valuation it would have to be a deal similar to The Sbtx for it to have no effect on the share price.
When we get the next Nordgine numbers and the expected deals in place I would imagine this will really start to take off ,as posters have correctly pointed out when you look at the excellent progress made the valuation is way to low at this juncture

[ny boy] 04/12/2019 07:42

Nobby, I think so, the FDA broad label approval is significant, a game changer, not long before we finally break above 200p

Looking forward to hearing about the US commercialization deal to be announced.

Hopefully either we end this decade off in style or start the new decade off in style

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 22:01

You do have to expect the terms of the deal will be quite impressive though. With Pharma desperate for approved products, there should be a healthy competition. It is clearly a seller's market...

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 21:59

>> cranky

So you are saying £5-£6 whereas some others here think the deal is already in the price. I guess somewhere in between....

[secret investor] 03/12/2019 21:14

Presumably it is the insurers who are in charge - they pay the piper. If they can solve patient x's problem at a much lower cost than before, without having to lower premiums, then they will profit. The doctors will have to do what will enable them to get paid.

There was a large after-hours buy today (132k shares @ 189.5p) - things are certainly more active than a few weeks ago!

[2theduke] 03/12/2019 17:38

@cranky. That is exactly correct in my view. It’s about a skilled player stating there is a market that can be utilised.
We all know there is a market, ferinject shows us that. Whether someone can incentivise doctors or health providers to switch to a potentially lower profit product is going to be interesting (in the us)

[ekcs] 03/12/2019 16:41

I guess the significance of the upfront is that it shows the partner's commitment (and gives them plenty of cash thus taking the potential of a cash raise off the table), but presumably in a licence deal the real value is in royalties and the partner's ability to execute. Can't see it makes any difference if it is this side or the other side of NEw Year. Haven't they said they were aiming for Q4 but wouldn't be forced into getting something done just to meet an unnecessary timeline. Better they get it right than rushed. Isn't there a big global healthcare investor conference in January? Perhaps that's their target? WHo knows!!

[rafboy] 03/12/2019 16:03

These large trades that keep appearing suggest to me a deal is coming. Just my personal view.

[crankyman] 03/12/2019 15:29

The key effect to the deal is not the cash directly (though that is, after all, cash and can be used to capitalise the R&D needed for the pipeline), it is that someone who knows what they are talking about has put up a lot of money and *believes* in the potential of the product. That belief will flick a switch for this company. The price will rise a lot more than people are expecting but that will come back to fundamentals. I'd expect to see some big highs - maybe £5 or £6 and then a fall back to around £4 before it drifts again.

[ny boy] 03/12/2019 15:15

Flight to safety going on during this sudden market sell off, we should see more buyers parking cash here over the short term.

[rafboy] 03/12/2019 13:53

I think the price will rise on a deal. How much by depends on the deal.

[secret investor] 03/12/2019 13:47

On 78steve's suggestion that a US deal is already priced-in, it's worth pointing out that the share price peaked at 188p in early April 2016 (shortly after the IPO). In the intervening 3.5 years then we've had EMA approval, the Norgine deal, growing sales and revenues, and FDA approval - and the share price is currently only 188p (the same as in April 2016)!

[78steve] 03/12/2019 13:30

Does anyone know what the market value of ferinject is which is a competitor so we can see what the potential is for feraccru

[ny boy] 03/12/2019 13:20

They are looking for more mug sellers to fill buy orders.

US deal will be announced just a question of this side of the NY (as Company have previously indicated, or just after to start the new decade off in style.

Market correction may have started, so investors will view this as a safe haven, great news coming, not any need to sell

[78steve] 03/12/2019 12:42

Then again if management have said a deal was to be done before eoy then who knows it could come at anytime

[nobbygnome] 03/12/2019 12:32

We are broadly at the same level as after the approval. I don’t think a deal was immediately priced in 4 months ago so to me there is clearly upside from here. How much depends on the nature of the deal, who it’s with and the size of the payments particularly the upfront.

Also don’t forget the licensing deal for China which is also imminent. There has been debate on here about the potential size of the upfront payment. Personally I think it will not be substantial because the partner will have to pay for a phase III trial but others disagree. So definitely more upside from that too as I am absolutely sure that is not priced in particularly if there is a half decent payment.

[2theduke] 03/12/2019 12:26

I dont think they'll be a deal announced this year now, it's getting late and approaching holiday slow down time.
Makes sense some people will sell and come back later, also it's unusual for management to be so quiet. Last guidance remains aims for both deals in this quarter, so guess they'll say something shortly. I'm not expecting anything other than "they need more time" and a small sell off related to this comment.