Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[2theduke] 03/1/2020 19:49

Ah what was the rant? To be honest I’m now starting to get concerned with the timing and the lack of communication here. The sell and take the profits is now a question I’m considering. Shame nothing happened in q4.

[crankyman] 03/1/2020 13:49

Prefer to rant anonamously. Anyway, it out of his hands now. It's Norgine's product. What they are doing with it is not terribly clear

[ny boy] 03/1/2020 13:25

cranky, you could email Carl at Shield with your concerns?

[borromini1] 03/1/2020 11:42

250 GBX would be very nice. Otherwise difficult to calculate when still early days for revenue. As Edison stated on 26 July 2019 ... Successfully commercialising Feraccru/Accrufer through partners is now key to Shield realising its value ... We now value Shield at 273m.

Current market capitalisation = 210 million GBP
Number of shares = 117 million
Current share price = 180 GBX
After deal share price, say 250 GBX
After deal market capitalisation = 292 million GBP

Patent expiry 2034
Years for revenue growth towards substantial earnings per share, say 4 years
Subsequent investment pay back period, say 10 years
On the above basis to return original investment capital, someone buying in at 250 GBX might be assuming ...
Earnings total per year average over 10 year pay back period = 29.2 million GBP
Earnings per share per year average over 10 year pay back period = 25 GBX
To make any profit they need to see more than these figures or sell to the next believer.

Ferinject in market sales for 2018 = 900 million USD = 693 million GBP
Vifor Pharma Ferinject global sales revenue for 2018 = 380 million GBP
Vifor revenue to market sales ratio = 55 percent

Edison Feraccru/Accrufer peak in market sales figures
USA = 420 million USD = 323 million GBP
Norgine EU 5 = 130 million Euros = 110 million GBP
Total in market sales = 433 million GBP
Shield revenue to market sales ratio say same as Vifor at 55 percent
Shield peak revenue = 238 million GBP

Comments, additions and corrections welcome

[ny boy] 03/1/2020 11:22

Shield filed their reply to Teva’s appeal received electronically on 20 December, 11 pages, can view it on EPO web site putting in ref EP2668175 , click on all documents left hand side.

[nobbygnome] 03/1/2020 07:25

>> borromini1

Good to hear you have got through your scepticism. What price are you expecting post the announcement of a half decent deal?

[ny boy] 02/1/2020 22:59

Interesting big trades!

I guess we should hear something very soon....

The time limit for replying to the communication dated 20.08.2019 is 4 months plus 10 days according to Rule 126 (2) EPC, so probably on 02.01.2020 as the EPO is closed on the 30.12.2019 and first working day is 02.01.2020. Please notice that User Desk does not take responsibility for the complete accuracy of this information, the Registrars of the Boards of Appeal are responsible, but the date should be right.

As mentioned you can find all relevant bibliographic information in EP2668175:

Properietor is Shield TX (UK) Limited

Opponent, who filed the appeal, is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

This information is found on the main page of the EPR, under titles "Applicant" and "Opposition(s)"

You can choose to receive an email for every new document added to the All documents page of the EPR, this is called Dossier alert- Email. It simple to activate, but if you have many monitored applications and need to keep and overview Register Alert is more suitable.

Register Alert requires a quick registration. You can then log in to an account, edit your list and add comments etc. Register Alert sends emails for important events only and not for every new document as Dossier Alert.

[borromini1] 02/1/2020 21:48

Yep, back in over the last couple of months. Been adding in lumps.

[nobbygnome] 02/1/2020 19:12

>> borromin

You actually bought?😳

[crankyman] 02/1/2020 19:09

Whatever it was, it’s not new demand for the shares. It’s got to be a transfer between entities or something like that.

[borromini1] 02/1/2020 18:49

5.2 million shares, over 9 million GBP, reported after market close but both timed as 9:12:20.000 in the morning. I thought I was the big spender today until that happened ha ha.

New year first RNS a holding RNS?

[siriusbizness] 02/1/2020 18:26

That’s 45 x the ave volume. Is it anything to do with start of the month balancing or start of year share options being issued?

[nobbygnome] 02/1/2020 17:37

Wow. Five million shares traded in 2 lots today! Presumably one was a buy and one a sell...but which way round?

[secret investor] 01/1/2020 12:58

It’s possible that completing the US deal has been delayed for accounting reasons - that the US partner wants the costs to be recognised in FY 2020 not FY 2019. If so then we may get an announcement very soon...

[borromini1] 01/1/2020 10:11

Add to those pending deal announcements the business update around the 24 January and it could be that we are heading for double/triple bubble news flow over the next four weeks.

Any update on that patent defence submission? Didn’t NYB reckon the deadline was 2 January. Maybe that will be the first RNS of the year.

[nobbygnome] 01/1/2020 08:36

LOL regulatory affairs is most definitely not my area! In the short term it is all about the licensing deals in the US and China with the former clearly being the most important. A delay is not a problem; all that matters is the terms of the deal and if that takes a bit longer to negotiate then so be it.

[ny boy] 31/12/2019 12:30

Best wait for the US commercialization deal, obviously it was not going to be announced around Christmas/NY holidays. For maximum impact, wait for the markets to build up volumes and activity, say 2nd week of January onwards, no rush really, stay patient

Happy NY to all, stay healthy & wealth, a new decade ahead, of immense opportunities!

[borromini1] 30/12/2019 21:58

STX have mentioned a number of times about the advantages of being able to sell direct to consumers in the US, what stopped them setting up a pilot e-commerce service straight after the FDA broad approval?

[nobbygnome] 30/12/2019 21:51

Silence I guess because they didn't promise it would be done by the end of the year.

Anyway it is of no matter as a deal will most definitely come at some point soon.

[borromini1] 30/12/2019 21:45

So will we get the delay RNS, deal summary RNS or silence tomorrow?

[nobbygnome] 23/12/2019 12:18

Finncap mucking about as usual...

[ny boy] 23/12/2019 10:35

Buyers are returning, share price has dropped slightly on low selling vols, clearly another mugging going on. Still think, they will announce first week after the NY hols, still I won’t be complaining if it arrives earlier.

[best1467] 23/12/2019 06:53

They have never stated a commitment for the deal mentioned what as been stated is that they are hopefull of getting a deal done by year end but not it as to be the right deal so if runs into next year so be it