Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[marie1980] 04/2/2020 19:41

Imagine those who invested at 190ish.
Feel sorry for them.

[best1467] 04/2/2020 14:02

Just looking at Ferrinject from 2006 sales grew from $16M to $59 in 2009 they took off to grow to reach $985 in 2018 so in the first three years it was steady progress especially Bering in mind the Clout they had behind them

[marie1980] 04/2/2020 12:54

Good point Boro.

May I ask you that do you hold mathematics degree ?

You good in mathematics and seems genuine member here. Appreciate

[borromini1] 04/2/2020 10:52

2TD - STX stated revenue from Norgine from pack sales is 600,000 GBP. Assumed in market packs for 12 week course price 142.50 GBP, i.e. 3 x 47.50 GBP per pack.

[2theduke] 04/2/2020 10:29

Borro - what is the sales figure you are using? Is it exc. milestones?

[crankyman] 04/2/2020 09:31

There is no way these reps are doing Feraccru only. It would be 3rd line plus detail.

[nobbygnome] 04/2/2020 09:06

Yes good stuff borro!

[crankyman] 04/2/2020 09:02

@borro I think it’s a good analysis. Hard grind at the moment for sure.

[marie1980] 04/2/2020 08:25

Ramping :)

I’m long but 600+ is hilarious

[borromini1] 04/2/2020 00:49

By my calculations ... Norgine 2019 Feraccru sales equate to 16,850 patients each taking a twelve week course. STX enthused about Norgine having a UK and Germany sales team 80 strong, so on average each sales rep’s efforts resulted in 210 patients over the year, that is 17.5 per month. Even at these figures if Norgine had a gross margin of 75% on each pack of Feraccru, each sales rep could be said to have pulled in 1,875 GBP per month margin for Norgine and 625 GBP for STX.

[2theduke] 31/1/2020 15:23

It absolutely could be a positive like you say nobby. Without doubt there is risk I’ve left a share at the worst of times due to the reason you say.

[nobbygnome] 31/1/2020 15:07

>> 2theduke

I respect your decision and some of what you say is of course true. However, also there is loads of speculation mostly in a negative way. For example you could see the US delay as a positive because it shows STX are driving a hard bargain. Personally I think they are going for an all encompassing deal with a big player to cover primary care in the future as well and that explains the delay. However, this is pure (positive) speculation! I will be at the Proactive presentation next week so will try to get as much information as possible.

What did Buffet say about investment being the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient...,

[montyhedge] 31/1/2020 14:07

We all know flu makes you weak, perhaps iron tablets to build strength back up, with Coronavirus, what did you think is it possible?

[crankyman] 31/1/2020 11:19

It’s impossible for us to know the best approach to the US because we are not on the inside. I am sure they are doing the best to optimise it. I see no reason to doubt that. What I’ve said many times on this forum is that I don’t think European payers will buy the premium oral story and will want to push the price down. That could be fine if it tripled the volume. It could be more than fine. But the current set up is not getting that bullet bitten and we are going to be 4 years since the label before we will know that

[2theduke] 31/1/2020 10:34

I’ve always been open to sharing my views and risking a ticking off when I get it wrong as it involves some forecasting. However, a part of why I sold is:
• The US deal delay is worrisome. Carl stated they were talking to China for a year before the deal was approved. This also means they’ve been talking to U.S partners for a very long time already. I appreciate the FDA wide label will have changed those conversations 6 months ago – but its should have helped them.
• The Brokers. Now they talk about dilution even if a US deal is done. This is new and wasn’t on noted before. This implies to me a smaller US upfront payment and the potential need to fund the US paediatric study.
• The US partnership. Nothing but speculation here, but I now expect a partnership with multiple, smaller companies across the states. This will result in a lower total payment upfront and dilute the peak earnings potentially.
• EU sales. The figures are really low, even with the excuse of changing from own sales force to 3rd party, and the narrower initial label.
• Drug uptake. There are reasons for US PR actioners not to prefer Accufer. One of which is the revenue of the drug.
• Patent. Once the patent expires, do we have generic pill? That doesn’t leave a lot of time to sell and adopt this, it is also why Ferrinject could remain popular.
• China is great. I do think that deal is great, also where there are limited established iron treatments, this pill could do wonders. None-the-less, the market does really like the proposition.

I dont have a position here any more. And this isnt a recommendation (obviously), just a post to provide an alternative view and for challenge - risky on the internet I know.

Ultimately this is a fantastic drug for patients, there is no getting away from that.

[borromini1] 31/1/2020 09:27

STX too relaxed an approach to getting the US deal done just because they can, having received the China deal upfront payment. STX are running down the patent life at a cost of 27 million GBP per month. More China revenue at least 3 years away. STX now saying Norgine not expected to get things going until 2021, somewhat contradicting Hardman projected figures citing a revenue increase for 2020 of 340 per cent from increased markets and sales. Too casual not enough urgency.

[crankyman] 31/1/2020 06:43

Classic CFO subtype. Slightly vampireish. City accent.

[best1467] 31/1/2020 06:19

Finance Director not the best interviewee let’s hope Carl is state bound finalising the deal.

[montyhedge] 30/1/2020 19:00

Yes the dosh arrived in the bank account, that's good.

[crankyman] 30/1/2020 09:58

just change those xx to tt

[ny boy] 29/1/2020 15:40

Sorry I am on holidays Asia, with various distractions of a pleasant kind.

All seems fine to me, not selling any, added a few recently, nothing more to do.

Just attending to some other little gems in the making such as PPS & ITX, imo

Catch up in a few weeks, off to Vietnam, face mask to the ready

[peachie 74] 29/1/2020 10:11

Can you copy and post it nyboy ?
Cheers