Sefton Resources Share Discussion Threads

[yas0] 06/2/2008 18:38

Now ferny is telling Relsihing off. Such shilly shallying.

It seems that the seftoners are getting rather frustrated by a lacklustre shareprice, and are having a go at each other.lol

[relishing] 06/2/2008 18:37

Thanks for that griff.

[griffzinho] 06/2/2008 18:36

Relishing.. I'm as bullish on Sefton as anyone here, but without steaming Tapia is not much of an asset. I'll stick by that statement as reserves from conventional production are around 1 mllion barrels. Quite a small field. Around 10-13% of estimated oil in place (10-11 million barrels)

Figures for EOR are roughly 40-70% and you will see that accounts for the variance in reserves up and down from 4 Million to 7 Million barrels WITH steaming.

In essence Tapia is 4 to 7 times the asset with steaming!??

The steam pilot will reaffrim this. The fact that a previous operator has had success with steaming has allowed Sefton book these reserves and they booked them at the higher end of the range in the first Hardman report, hence the 7.7 Million barrel estimation of reserves and the 51p NPV.

The last hardman report has the core NPV of Sefton as a company as 10p based on conventional production. That isn't much of an increase on the current share price (Alright it is 100%+) but below most bullish targets on here. You will notice that based on the new reserves (conservative one last year end 31/12/06) that assumed only a 40% ultimate recovery from steaming, based on 4 Million barrels approx has the core NPV with steaming at 28p.

I firmly believe my investment here is based on the success of the steam pilot and conventional drilling is of benefit in the interim to cash flow, but not as significant to the ultimate value of Tapia.

Any prospective predator would be paying for reserves and the difference between 1 Million barrels approx from conventional and a prospective 4-7 Million barrels approx from steaming is quite considerable.

Think about it for a while.

[relishing] 06/2/2008 18:19

Oh no tim00, we must ignore the facts and figures.

Lets just believe that Tapia "isn't much of an asset" and "not an attractive bid proposition" like yas0 would like everyone to believe instead.

After all, the shareprice is only 5p, so how can the maths be right?

[tim00] 06/2/2008 18:15

re: £2 mn profit. The sums aren't difficult. £2 mn equals $4 mn implies revenue of about $6.5 mn. At $75 per barrel for Wilmington 17, production needs to be just over 7000 bopm. We're already at 6000 bopm without the impending new wells! £2 mn really isn't a stretch for 2008.

[yas0] 06/2/2008 18:08

relishing - 6 Feb'08 - 17:29 - 12405 of 12416

LOL. So why are you invested this share MT? "Only buy shares if you would buy the whole company" etc.

Can't you do basic sums MT?


Well, to answer your point relsihing, no he cannot. But then neither can you, judging by that garbled nonsense of a spreadsheet you formulated recently.

Now answer me this - if sefton do not achieve 132k bbls this year, will you finally accept defeat, or will you still offer some nonsense in mitigation?.

[fernygrade] 06/2/2008 18:08

Lucky I did not say I would eat a horsE.

[yas0] 06/2/2008 18:05

Relsihing writes '' 2 mln profit from conventional production''. I remind him of my seminar from this afternoon.

''Incidentally, I reviewed the Hardman report again today to reinforce my stance. The one thing that sticks out a mile to me is their forecast of 132000 bbls in 08. Now, take a look new readers, at production over the past two years. Not even half of that has been achieved. Any wells drilled this year? Any enhancement of production using the steaming facility?

It takes some considerable (and in my view misplaced) confidence to even begin to accept that a projection of 132000 bbls shall be met. In the event Sefton fall short (and my view remains that they will) then the shares will be subject to the kind of pummelling other tiddlers (especially those with debt) have seen recently when missing broker, analyst or company forecasts. Remember folks, the Hardman report is commissioned by Sefton.''

Now how many wells have been drilled by Sefton this year?
Enhanced production does not appear out of thin air - it needs new wells to be drilled.

[yas0] 06/2/2008 18:01

I see that for once morris submitted a reasonable statement. Perhaps he is not feeling well. Anyway, he indicated that there is no prospect of a bid.

He is right. But he was knocked to the canvas by relsighing, his former chum. The point is that Seftoners are turning on their own if anypone dares to make a remark that is not fancifully bullish. It beggars belief.

The reason for this is that they think new readers shall not fall for their ramping campaign. Well, the gracious fellow is here to ensure new readers are afforded a balanced view. Hence I think seftoners are wasting their time with ill judged bullish rants, and lambasting anyone with an opposing view.

But it was good to see morris hitting the canvas. He deserved it for violation of rule 5 the other day, but whatever the reason it was good to see him getting a ticking off from his chum.

[uknighted] 06/2/2008 17:49

Ferny
Make it a tengallon hat :-)
Regards
UK

[relishing] 06/2/2008 17:48

Come on you can do better than that Ferny.

[fernygrade] 06/2/2008 17:47

If they make 2 mill profit this year relishing not only will I buy a new hat I will eat it as well.

[relishing] 06/2/2008 17:46

That figure is from the Hardman report.

And is probably on the conservative side.

[uknighted] 06/2/2008 17:45

Relishing talking of sweeping statements :"Over £2m profit expected this year from conventional production alone." :-)
Regards
UK

[relishing] 06/2/2008 17:40

The silence is deafening...

[relishing] 06/2/2008 17:38

Over £2m profit expected this year from conventional production alone. Market cap about £5m. Would you like to explain why this "isn't much of an asset", griffzinho, or "not an attractive bid proposition" MT?

No you're not going to argue with me, because you can't.

Don't make sweeping statements if you can't back them up.

[mickey take] 06/2/2008 17:34

Forget it... I am not going to argue with you

[relishing] 06/2/2008 17:29

LOL. So why are you invested this share MT? "Only buy shares if you would buy the whole company" etc.

[mickey take] 06/2/2008 17:28

Rel – Without demonstrating success in steaming, this is not an attractive bid proposition

And forget CBM, again until they can demonstrate some progress any potential bidder will be doing just that waiting- just like us here for the last four years