Sefton Resources Share Discussion Threads

[california joe] 07/2/2008 13:27

Thin bitumen deposits are less attractive for SAGD operators because they present reduced economics and increased environmental footprints. The key factors are as follows:

Thinner deposits contain less oil over the producing horizontal well.
�� In SAGD, a gravity drive must be maintained. This dictates the maximum width of the steam chamber as a multiple of its maximum height. Thinner deposits result in a narrower steam chamber and therefore reduced well spacings. This increases capital costs and the environmental footprint on the surface.
�� Thinner deposits will lose more heat to the over and under burden.

So I guess thicker deposits are better then :O)

Edit: Anything less than 20m considered not viable!

[bobbyg2] 07/2/2008 12:57

relishing - 7 Feb'08 - 12:56 - 12525 of 12525

Not quite sure of the relevance of the productive oil sand thickness comment

me neither - anyone with some technical knowledge help out here?

[relishing] 07/2/2008 12:56

Seriously though its very hard to guess as the Snow lease has not been drilled on by Sefton before. Not quite sure of the relevance of the productive oil sand thickness comment, but I assume that the wells are expected to be of economical flowrates and they have a good idea of these before drilling them. I will say 15bpd each to be conservative.

[deanroberthunt] 07/2/2008 12:54

lol Relishing, you are the ultimate optimist.

[bobbyg2] 07/2/2008 12:54

split the difference at 33bpd - im happy with that :)

edit: now now rel thats not fair, you just trying to make my maths look bad? ok split the difference at 30bpd - still happy with that.

[relishing] 07/2/2008 12:53

50bpd each..... :)

[unionhall] 07/2/2008 12:51

10bpd each.....

[bobbyg2] 07/2/2008 12:49

oh go on drh lets speculate, its fun!

anyone care to speculate what bpd we might see from these snow wells?

[deanroberthunt] 07/2/2008 12:38

I agree lets not speculate, one step at a time.

[bobbyg2] 07/2/2008 12:34

MT

spoilsport!

:)

[mickey take] 07/2/2008 12:33

You cant quote a date for steaming results until they start the thing up

[fleascool] 07/2/2008 12:25

1st production would be on or just after 1st May, but you don't normally count the first flush rates as stable steady production off which to base a re-rating of reserves.

So 1st meaningful production will be 1st June ish.
I understand your point though.

[relishing] 07/2/2008 12:14

"2-4 weeks of soaking into the oil sands. 1st May.
1st production from steaming likely 1st June."

No, 1st production from steaming would be shortly after 1st May.

But I agree it may take a while to get enough information to measure the increase in reserves.

[fleascool] 07/2/2008 12:13

Afternoon all.

In my phone call to Je a few days ago, he told me that he and the board are aware of the manipulation of the share price But that there is very little they can do at these prices.

Regarding the steaming, don't expect to see an upgrade in reserves when the results are announced.
Look at time scales.
Lets say the pilot begins on 1st March.
2-4 weeks of steaming the well. 1st April.
2-4 weeks of soaking into the oil sands. 1st May.
1st production from steaming likely 1st June.
I am sure the engineers will want a fair bit of data about increased production before raising the reserves.
I'm expecting that the reserves increase (if any) will be published mid to late 3rd quarter of this year.
However, I am expecting this update on reserves to be positive, so I don't mind waiting a short while....

Flea.

[deanroberthunt] 07/2/2008 12:12

shorting's with us, like it or not, use it to your advantage....without it I would never have picked up Woolies at 8p.

[shadowchaser] 07/2/2008 12:12

SER--DO we really need facile explanations at kindergarten level to explain what were all up to any way ?

Lol!

-SC

[unimog] 07/2/2008 12:10

It only takes a couple of people off a BB to talk to a director,mention the sp, the BB and a few names. The next guy speaking to the director hear's him mention shorting and a name or two and hey presto 2 + 2 = 5.

[griffzinho] 07/2/2008 12:07

I've just been looking over the drilling map on Seftons web site.

The snow lease is an unknown factor and these wells could be highly significant in enhancing conventional production. Three wells are planned this time round on the snow lease, but six more producers could follow in the full step out.

The mention of Yule sand net thickness being greater than 120 ft on the snow lease is highly encouraging imo..

[california joe] 07/2/2008 12:03

There may be a few people here that don't realise how this works, so here's a brief explanation:

Lets take it that I, California Joe own 100000 shares in Sefton at 5p per share. You reckon they're way overvalued and likely to suffer a big fall very soon, so you call me up and ask to borrow my 100k shares of Sefton and you then sell them at the current market price for £5000. The agreement you have with me is that in a set time agreed, you pay me back what you have borrowed. So now you have sold them, you have £5k in your pocket.

The following week, as you had guessed, Sefton falls to 4p.


You get on the phone to your broker and buy 100000 shares at 4p, pop over to mine, give me my 100000k back, pocketing a cool £1k for yourself!

If you are sure that the stocks you are picking are suitable for this, it is far easier to make good money than waiting for a stock to rise.

Short of a positive RNS coming out unexpectedly, it will not be often you will end up paying more than you borrowed!

[yas0] 07/2/2008 11:56

So let us have names then minerman - and how would a director access the names

[murrayteller] 07/2/2008 11:55

MM, why so many aliases? I only just got used to Matador

[california joe] 07/2/2008 11:46

Unionhall, the stock HAS been shorted by a small group over a period of time.
The reason being that it is one of many that can be easily taken up and quickly brought down.
Who? Well, I will let you work that one out for yourself, but when a company director is aware of what is going on and discusses this without prompting, naming names, then I daresay there may be something in it.

[unionhall] 07/2/2008 11:42

Joe,

Can you explain -

How it is manipulated,

To what end is it being manipulated,

by whom is it being manipulated.

Cheers,


California Joe - 7 Feb'08 - 11:20 - 12501 of 12502 (premium)


I can tell you that the trading on this share has been manipulated and that the board are fully aware of this.

[yas0] 07/2/2008 11:34

Minerman,

There is no manipulation, as you put it. There have been no willing buyers to support the price.

Perhaps the buyers shall appear now that the company have indicated improved cashflow and a reasonably robust drilling schedule.

[yas0] 07/2/2008 11:32

Was MPH anailed on bull position at 50p? lol

You seem to use these phrases in all your stockpicks, and all end up as wrong calls.

Now do seftoners a favour and disappear.