Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[honestmarty] 05/3/2021 09:41

After this type of asset boom, the typical fall from the peak is about 70%.

That would make sub 800 a possible entry point.

Who to blame?

That slimy old deceiver, Cathy Wood, she is being ramped as a feminist icon by the media.

Her ARKK fund is behind much of these absurd valuations. She runs her stock picks past her Pauline hoax apparently, that should reassure anyone long.

[s_a_b] 05/3/2021 09:40

Latest NAV just published 1147p - that's quite a discount!

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 09:12

What have the covid vax got to do with SMT, you bozo? You realise that SMT rallied because of covid (as did all tech stocks) and now we have a vaccine all consumer cyclicals that got hammered in 2020 are receiving the flows coming out of tech?

But yeah, lOoK aT tHe CoViD vaCcInEs, bOzo....

[12toes] 05/3/2021 09:09

Just look at the Covid vaccines you bozo

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 09:09

Why would you want to buy SMT now even on a 5 year view when you will be able to buy it in a couple of weeks for 15-20% less? Obviously everyone's choice to invest how they see fit - personally I'm looking to maximise returns by getting close to the right entry point. Given sentiment switch out of tech it's not like this is going to +30% in a week... but it could -10-15% in a week given how overbought tech is.

But best of luck. Remember that the long-term is just a series of short-terms....

[craftyale] 05/3/2021 09:00

I'm sure I'm not alone, watching and waiting. Ready to buy but trying to be patient. We like round numbers........what happens at 1000 will be interesting.

[jockthescot75] 05/3/2021 08:45

“This afternoon”....”near term”....̶1;in a few weeks”.
All irrelevant for SMT IMO. This is a 5 year+ play and with this level of pull back a great opportunity if you’re looking long term.

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 08:42

Almost certainly a lot less than you are stating taking into account US AH prices & you also need to bear risk of continued sell off this afternoon in US tech holdings. Brave to buy above 1000p near term, you will be able to pick up cheaper in a few weeks imho...

[18bt] 05/3/2021 07:25

Discount out to nearly 8.5%

[honestmarty] 04/3/2021 20:55

800p looks like the buy trigger.

[topvest] 04/3/2021 20:24

Its always difficult to call the top. £14 is looking like it might have been though. Valuations in tech are absurd. Once this goes into decline its going down 50-80% from the top in my view, using the Minervini logic. Already down 22%.

[arja] 04/3/2021 18:43

hammwered after UK close and looks ominous for tech trusts on friday and might be a black friday unless it recovers in next few hours !

[arja] 04/3/2021 18:42

thanks for confirmation Hartley and can only really do day trades with CFDs or spreadbet or give government most of the profit . nasdaq hammere

[hartleyjr1] 04/3/2021 11:22

Yes, stamp duty is payable on purchasing SMT.L

I can see the bearish sentiment on tech lasting for some while - risen too quickly as market pivoted out of cyclicals, and TINA (there is nothing else). Obviously a lot of hope about recovery in cyclicals (probably overly optimistic) but flows now into stocks which got hammered in 2020. Lot of tech stock valuations still look bonkers even with ZIRP / -ve rates (even putting a near 0% discount rate in tesla's DCF requires absurd long-term growth to get to today's share price). Apple / Amazon / FB / Alphabet I reckon might fall 10% from here, but a lot of SMT's holdings I think could be subject to bigger falls over the coming months.

but as you say certainly opportunities for intra-day trading.

[arja] 04/3/2021 10:45

but really bearish market today and not just nasdaq falling . good luck Hartley . Incidentally, I only trade using CFDs for some years but can you tell me if stamp duty payable when buying SMT ?

[arja] 04/3/2021 10:43

normally not and out at 1094 as it looked like turning down - I often need a quicker trigger finger ! ( smile )

[hartleyjr1] 04/3/2021 10:41

Braver person than me.

[arja] 04/3/2021 10:33

i was talking about an intra day trade hartley and I entered at 1077 and watching like a hawk !!

[hartleyjr1] 04/3/2021 10:10

I would be wary about trying to catch a falling knife on the rotation of out tech tbh... it might bounce today but the trend is still lower for tech generally - lots of momentum in both directions in this market - rotation into consumer cyclicals is strong and tech looks very overbought. Tesla I can see more than halving from these levels over the next 6 months, zoom, nio, etc all looking very toppy. Amazon more resilient but still scope for disappointment given zoom's results this week.

1 Tencent 6.50%
2 Illumina 6.10%
3 Amazon.com 5.90%
4 Tesla Inc 5.10%
5 NIO 4.80%
6 Alibaba 4.60%
7 Meituan Dianping 4.50%
8 ASML 4.20%
9 Moderna 3.60%
10 Delivery Hero 3.30%
11 Kering 2.10%
12 Spotify 2.00%
13 MercadoLibre 1.90%
14 Netflix 1.90%
15 Zalando 1.80%
16 NVIDIA 1.70%
17 Pinduoduo 1.70%
18 Denali Therapeutics 1.60%
19 Ferrari 1.60%
20 Ant International 1.60%
21 Affirm 1.50%
22 HelloFresh 1.50%
23 Zoom Video Communications 1.40%
24 ByteDance 1.20%
25 Adyen 1.20%
26 Tempus Labs Inc 1.10%
27 Shopify 1.10%
28 Wayfair 1.10%
29 Ginkgo BioWorks 0.90%
30 Carvana 0.90%
31 Vir Biotechnology 0.90%
32 Ocado 0.90%
33 TransferWise 0.80%
34 You & Mr Jones 0.80%
35 Kinnevik 0.80%
36 Zipline 0.80%
37 Palantir Technologies 0.70%
38 Stripe 0.70%
39 Space Exploration Technologies 0.70%
40 Workday 0.70%
41 Atlas Copco 0.70%

[arja] 04/3/2021 09:33

hartley ,
I think we understand about the lagging effect of the NTA and today's figure later today is still only at wednesday close in USA and nasdaq futures has fallen another 100 points since then but that is small . Certainly SMT has fallen much more in % terms than the nasdaq which is alarming . it will bounce today at some point and timing is of the essence - now down to 1076 and no sign of bottoming yet !

[contrarian joe] 04/3/2021 09:23

Trying to time this fund to perfection is a fools game!,scaling in over the next couple of months then holding for the long term will reap the better returns imo.

[hartleyjr1] 04/3/2021 09:12

Pointing to Space X landing as good new for SMT is a bit like seeing your house burning down and being happy that your kids scooter was in the garden!

Their stake in Space Exploration Technologies is 0.70% of the portfolio. Sure it might end up 'doing a Tesla' in the next 10 years, but equally it's likely that the 5.1% that SMT holds in Tesla will tent towards 0.7% of the portfolio as the multiple compresses massively on BEV stock valuations.

I'd avoid SMT until well under 1000p given the rout in tech - the rotation into cyclicals and out of tech has some way to go yet...

[hartleyjr1] 04/3/2021 09:09

It's not oversold.

A lot of the people on this group seems to fundamentally misunderstand how SMT.L works. The NAV figure is historical and lags what's been going on post-close in the US and also in Asia. Tech stocks are being pummelled.

Anyone interested in SMT.L can download the holdings from Baillie Gifford's webbite and see how the holdings are faring overnight in the US AH market and also in Asia.

IMHO we are in rotation out of overbought tech stocks and into consumer cyclicals for the next 6 months at least I think, and a prolonged blow-off in tech multiples is likely. I sold my SMT holding at 1390p and won't start looking at it until probably under the 1000p level, possibly lower if the momentum away from tech continues as we have seen as markets are overshooting in both directions with FOMO and FUD.

[arja] 04/3/2021 08:47

SMT seems to fall more in % terms than PCT and ATT when nasdaq falls and goes up more when nasdaq rises ! Looks a bit oversold now and might be a good intra day trade if nasdaq futures starts to recover later today

[29palms] 03/3/2021 23:40

More good news for "Unlisted" holding SpaceX as it lands Starship prototype rocket for the first time after a high-altitude flight test