Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 14:34

I agree, anything north of 50 billion listing would have a considerable impact for any holders. Fantastic Irish success story! Fintech and online payments will be a considerable area of growth this year, accelerated by Covid.

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 13:43

115billion for Stripe seems cracker but obviously that's fintech PE market for us...

[greatpepe] 08/3/2021 13:42

Couldn't resist to get back into this one :)

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 13:26

Not the full 20% of unlisted but potentially next 2 to be listed . Lilium, valued at approx 2 billion and Stripe currently valued at 115 billion on the secondary market. Just for information.

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 13:07

>>>I'm guessing the trust is trading well below current NAV. The recent discount has correctly anticipated further price falls

I'd agree that it's well below NAV but obviously we don't know what the c. 20% unlisted portion of the portfolio is and I think generally in tech the valuations are still looking stretched (remember than SMT is still up 70% over the past 12 months - I know a lot of it's holdings have benefitted from the pandemic and there's a lot of extra magic money - but a lot of those holdings were pretty well valued before the pandemic. The bottom line is that it's a moving target but would agree that the extent of the discount suggests that when the rot in tech looks like it's finally bottomed out if the discount we are currently seeing SMT persists it will be an attractive LT buy.

[s_a_b] 08/3/2021 13:00

As Hartleyjr1 mentioned the other day, that NAV is at close of business Friday so won't reflect US pre market and HK etc. Even allowing for that, I'm guessing the trust is trading well below current NAV. The recent discount has correctly anticipated further price falls but IMHO when we finally hit the bottom holders should then benefit from both rising NAV and a narrower discount (based on historical levels). The problem is knowing when that might be!! GL to all holders.

[laser12] 08/3/2021 13:00

Unfortunately quite a few SMT holdings are private equity and these are not at market value. So I think the NAV is likely to be overstated.

[arja] 08/3/2021 12:58

hartley ,
they do it as it is really human nature to not to sell something which has been higher . each time it drops more they will say " I did not sell at 11 for example and why would I now sell at 10 " . I try to avoid being in that position by just trading with CFDs on an OAAT basis as it focuses the mind and helps me to cut a loss quickly or
take a profit using intra day chart . I lack discipline and that method forces me to show discipline ! ( smile ) . eg today and I have bought and sold VMUK twice for quite nice profit each time as banks are back in favour and VMUK is dual listed and
the form of VUK in OZ gives a clue as to what might happen here . each to his won as they say and more than one way of making money !

[n0rbie] 08/3/2021 12:50

Today's NAV update (as of last Friday) is 1159.75p versus current share price of 968.80p...

[fidra] 08/3/2021 12:31

Almost a £2.00 discount to NAV just published £11.58

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 12:07

Dexter, it's clear your money to do what you want with - all I was saying I struggle to understand the strategy of HODLING when an asset has shot up and is highly likely to retrace 30-40%. Sorry if you find that patronising, but impossible for me to predict your sensitivities.

[blackfinance] 08/3/2021 12:04

Steeplejack - Excellent post in a sea of illiterate dross.

[daler1966] 08/3/2021 12:03

Yes that's what I'm going to do with ITM

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 12:02

Could you patronise me a bit more before I answer that question? It appears to be something that you have a talent for. Maybe be less so away from the keyboard.

[steeplejack] 08/3/2021 11:42

Since hitting an all time high on Friday 12 Feb 2021,the Nasdaq has fallen just 8% but SMT has fallen a third.So are we to understand that SMT has a beta factor to the Nasdaq market of 4 times.Well,yes apparently so.Far from being the steady eddies of market investment,investment trusts have apparently morphed into the ‘go karts’ of stockmarket investment!Ultimately,investment trusts will reflect the valuations more or less related to asset value.I am reluctant to believe that the movements here are predictive so much as reactive.We have selling resulting from margin calls washing throughout the tech sector. China appears to have adopted a clear cut policy of deleveraging financial markets which is contributing to a fall in investor risk appetite globally.This explains the sharp fall in China investment trusts which is souring sentiment.generally.Probably past the worst but the sheer speed of price falls is spooking the herd.

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 11:20

"Coping mechanism, lol. Last I checked I was fine and posting on message board on the Internet......are you ok?"

I was simply looking for an explanation as to why anyone would post something as absurd at "Bubbles are bull markets that you don't have a position in...." in light of the past few weeks...

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 10:58

Coping mechanism, lol. Last I checked I was fine and posting on message board on the Internet......are you ok?

[donald pond] 08/3/2021 10:56

No position here but share price went from £6 to £14 pre covid to recent peak. The argument was that covid had accelerated disruption by 2-3 years. If that is the case then earnings should start justifying valuations here pretty quickly. If it fell to £7/8 on a 10-15% discount that could be very tempting. Also a lot of the Chinese companies including alibaba are changing their main listing from US to HK in Q2 which will change the MSCI basket significantly and is expected to lead to increased demand from Chinese and global investors. I wouldn't buy now, but it's closer to the bottom than the top imo

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 10:56

Maybe because some people subscribe to the view that the more you tinker in a share price, over which you have a long position, generally the market will win. If this can go up and down so rapidly in any given cycle or economic circumstance, the chances of it averaging out over time are better than any chart or daily trading that influence human emotion.Of course you have to have quality stick and conviction in the holdings...Happy to disagree.

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 10:53

Bubbles are bull markets that you don't have a position in....

Sure Dexter. As I said, sold at 1390p. You'd need to be pretty wilfully blind to look at the charts for a lot of SMT's holdings and the fundamentals and argue that they are not supremely overvalued on technicals & traditional measures. But whatever coping mechanism you need, fella, I'm happy to be that person you need me to be.

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 10:51

*beginning of this year and most of 2020 i meant to type

[hartleyjr1] 08/3/2021 10:51

@dexter

Imagine how much more SMT you could own now had you sold after it went parabolic at the beginning of this year? I find it odd how people are happy to sit and ride out 30% falls when they could sell and buy back 30% more, but there we go, each to their own.

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 10:50

Bubbles are bull markets that you don't have a position in....

[dexter1612] 08/3/2021 10:48

I'm maybe in a different position.....I've already built one, over 10 years, so I'm comfortable sitting for another 5..

[luddenden7] 08/3/2021 10:39

the breaking of a euphoric bubble in all its definition -