Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 05/3/2021 19:47

anyone who took a gamble and bought at close will be well rewarded on monday after US indioes really took off after UK close . Nice weekend all !
awaiting a meaningful contribution from Luddenden , obviously a low IQ individual and i bet he was a brexiteer ( wry smile )

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 19:08

Just under 30% retrace

[adorling] 05/3/2021 17:40

I think a 40% retrace in a few weeks is more than enough for me so have re-entered and will add anything below £10 given NAV of £11.50

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 17:13

@2torrence. No. Have held SMT for years up to 1390p, sold out because tech looking super toppy and because of expected market pivot into cyclicals with vaccine, end of lockdown. Not a day trader at all, but very interested in avoiding building new long positions that drop 10%-20% in the first week. I look at overnight trading just because I'm interested in the market's mood on tech - clearly massively overbought in 2020 and into early 2021. Long-term I totally agree stocks that SMT hold should do well - have been worried about their stake in Tesla for years but credit to Tom and the team they played a blinder in reducing their holdings at the right moments.

Today clearly wasn't the day to go in. People on here have been calling entry points on here since 1200p based on historic NAV. Don't jump into tech until clear signals the bear market has well and truly bottomed out would be my advice - likely somewhere between 800-900p for SMT I reckon.

[craftyale] 05/3/2021 16:38

Still watching and waiting. Sub 1000p on Monday I think.

[luddenden7] 05/3/2021 15:58

what a load of hot air

[arja] 05/3/2021 12:54

trades possible . I SMT is great for that while keeping close eye on the nasdaq index . sunny here in "English Med" and off for a brisk walk but missing my golf lately !

[arja] 05/3/2021 12:53

Ztorrance ,
the thing you have overlooked is the chart and best to folloow what it is saying , eg it is in a downtrend but of course always intra day trade

[2torrance] 05/3/2021 12:35

hartleyjr1 While you may be right in predicting tech and SMT's downfall, you should perhaps admit that those doing this over the past 3-4 years are the ones who have lost their shirt. The fact is holding long-term has proved a magnificent strategy for SMT investors over the years, despite the dips. Looking back | can only wish I had been more confident, not less. You sound very short-term, even covering possible dips overnight, but that all costs money and precious time, in the end. Meanwhile speaking purely short-term today might well have been the day to go in at start. Up around 4% whatever happens next!

[s_a_b] 05/3/2021 11:17

Latest NAV isn't meaningless, it's the best data point we have on valuation.Understand it doesn't include Asia and US post/pre market but as there are no big moves (so far!) IMO the discount is more reflective of risk attitudes and fund flows. Rightly or wrongly it is pricing in more bad news from last night.

[steeplejack] 05/3/2021 10:52

Financials in the US are up slightly less than 20% over a year.Consumer discretionary are up by 30% lagging just 5% behind information technology sector which still leads the way up 35% over twelve months.Arguably,the switch out of tech into cyclical is not far off complete.This doesn’t suggest you should start ploughing headlong into buying tech orientated investment trusts since things tend to overshoot on both the upside and the downside.

Covid has expedited years of growth for a number of tech leaders like Amazon into a matter of months.The high street might reopen but shopping habits will have been permanently altered.The benefits to a number of other tech stocks will be similarly enduring.SMT is now about a third off recent highs.After that fall and given the discount to NAV,its arguably too late to sell and thus by implication,its probably time to prepare for purchases.

[kikkeridirect] 05/3/2021 10:51

15%down on this not sure if I should sell or hold it ? Can wait a year but not sure if the tech will pickup

[arja] 05/3/2021 10:17

bank stocks such as BARC and NWG are in favour even in this bearish market and again recovered well after early dips - obviously increasing bond yields are good for banks

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 10:16

"hartley ,
it was always a bigger risk to hold a trust trading at a premium to NTA as get a double wammy effect when share price starts downtrending and goes to a discount - hence PCT has not done so badly I think as always traded at a discount to NAV ."

Totally agree. Also you're locked in to it after 16h30 when the US is open and AH and Asia overnight unless of course as you say you hedge with derivatives.

[arja] 05/3/2021 10:08

hartley ,
it was always a bigger risk to hold a trust trading at a premium to NTA as get a double wammy effect when share price starts downtrending and goes to a discount - hence PCT has not done so badly I think as always traded at a discount to NAV .

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 10:08

It was in answer to his question what good has come out of Brexit, you bozo

Bozo answer - was a flip of a coin outcome, totally irrelevant to Brexit, bozo.

[12toes] 05/3/2021 10:01

It was in answer to his question what good has come out of Brexit, you bozo

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 10:00

"Latest NAV just published 1147p - that's quite a discount!"

Meaningless. Doesn't reflect US AH prices, doesn't reflect Asia. Slightly reflects the anticipation of further falls in tech. For the past 18 months SMT has been trading at a small premium to NAV - for the next 6 months at least I would expect it to trade at a discount owing to big sentiment swing out of tech and v. toppy valuations for some of SMT's holdings. SMT (and other tech-heaving ITs) went up like a rocket from March 2020 when valuations were already quite ambitious - the whole sector is due a significant multiple 'haircut'....

[arja] 05/3/2021 09:51

always quite amusing to hear people say something is a long term investment and they hold and watch the "paper" loss mount and kid themselves that it is not really a loss until you sell .They should at least hedge with a CFD short when a stock seems to have topped out as a form of insurance ,.
US indices futures are trying to rally but quite a battle and we will not know until physical opens at 2.30pm UK time .

[honestmarty] 05/3/2021 09:41

After this type of asset boom, the typical fall from the peak is about 70%.

That would make sub 800 a possible entry point.

Who to blame?

That slimy old deceiver, Cathy Wood, she is being ramped as a feminist icon by the media.

Her ARKK fund is behind much of these absurd valuations. She runs her stock picks past her Pauline hoax apparently, that should reassure anyone long.

[s_a_b] 05/3/2021 09:40

Latest NAV just published 1147p - that's quite a discount!

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 09:12

What have the covid vax got to do with SMT, you bozo? You realise that SMT rallied because of covid (as did all tech stocks) and now we have a vaccine all consumer cyclicals that got hammered in 2020 are receiving the flows coming out of tech?

But yeah, lOoK aT tHe CoViD vaCcInEs, bOzo....

[12toes] 05/3/2021 09:09

Just look at the Covid vaccines you bozo

[hartleyjr1] 05/3/2021 09:09

Why would you want to buy SMT now even on a 5 year view when you will be able to buy it in a couple of weeks for 15-20% less? Obviously everyone's choice to invest how they see fit - personally I'm looking to maximise returns by getting close to the right entry point. Given sentiment switch out of tech it's not like this is going to +30% in a week... but it could -10-15% in a week given how overbought tech is.

But best of luck. Remember that the long-term is just a series of short-terms....