Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[tosh123] 29/4/2019 13:16

And the village idiot returns.... One would have thought that he had taken enough hammerings.... But like the proverbial headless chicken, still he runs around not knowing what he's doing.

[inanaco] 29/4/2019 13:00

Tosh does not agree with you Loz

another Tosh Classic

""""I was tempted to sell more in the early teens, but my average is so low, it wasn't worth the risk of something happening whilst i had no shares, so a ballsy shout on your behalf, congratulations."""

[gooosed] 28/4/2019 20:53

Thanks Bs - with relatively little progress in well over a year & in what would have been the largest trial of any Scancell product to date, I'm disappointed in the lack of progress there. Yes the SCIB1 combo trial is slated to start this quarter but I'm not convinced the trial numbers even if successful would be sufficient to attract a deal.

The SCIB2 (Immunobody+) trial with a larger cohort & with a prioritised evaluation of the nano-vesicle tech would imho have allowed CRUK to press ahead.

Lets hope that the new recruits free up a sizeable portion of Lindy's Scancell time.

[bermudashorts] 28/4/2019 19:35

gooosed,

Yes would be good to get some clarity from Scancell. CH did said in the Q&A session of the Proactive event that it will be an off the shelf nano-vesicle delivery system and that CRUK will need to independently license it. My understanding is that Scancell's role is in evaluating different systems, I assume based on preclinical testing in the lab to compare performance. Then I guess they'll make a recommendation to CRUK.

[gazza] 28/4/2019 17:54

That's a very good question gooosed.

[gooosed] 28/4/2019 13:18

Scancell have previously confirmed what funds would be used for.

In the case of SCIB2 when they confirmed the development collaboration with cancer Research UK :

"Under the terms of the Clinical Development Partnership, Cancer Research UK will fund and sponsor a UK-based Phase 1/2 clinical trial of SCIB2 in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor in patients with solid tumours, focusing on NSCLC in the first instance. The charity's Centre for Drug Development (CDD) will be responsible for manufacturing the clinical trial supplies of SCIB2, conducting pre-clinical testing, sponsoring and managing the clinical trial, including the clinical trial timelines."




Months later it was confirmed that a cash raise was to be used in part to :

"Support the Cancer Research UK ("CRUK") development of SCIB2 for non-small-cell lung carcinoma ("NSCLC");"




CRUK confirmed slow progress being made merely advancing from Due Diligence to Exploratory in a 15 month period.




The latest update confirms that nano delivery system to be used still not sorted - so who's responsible ? Scancell or CRUK ?

[bermudashorts] 27/4/2019 12:24

Wild,

Of course email Scancell but the point is that 2mg per kg is an adult dose too, it's the equivalent of the 200mg fixed dose. It's not specifically a paediatric dose, they have simply retained the per kg weight dosing for children as obviously a fixed adult dose would equate to a much higher dose.

[bermudashorts] 27/4/2019 10:10

Wild,

Not sure whether you read advfn but if so hope you're well. Regarding dosing levels of Keytruda in the SCIB1 trial, when Keytruda was first approved by the FDA, the recommended dose was 2mg per kg of weight. This was changed to a fixed dose of 200mg regardless of weight in 2017 as pharmacokinetics data showed very little difference between the 2. So I don't think it's using a lower paediatric dose, just that Scancell have been using that slide for a long time and haven't updated it!!

As far as I know Keytruda has been approved for paediatric use in a couple of cancers and for those they seem to have retained the weight based dose of 2mg per kg (makes sense) but I'm pretty sure it hasn't been approved for melanoma .

[the real lozan] 26/4/2019 10:19

Yesterday provided ...More questions than answers -
'Questions' *WE ALL* might ask ourselves, like -
Did inane'n'co "retire", so HE could devote more time to the BUY,BUY,BUY SCAM ???
Since HE awarded HIMSELF a PHD, Does HE refer to HIMSELF as *Doctor* or *Professor*???
Does HE wear 'A white coat' {The one HE got off the icecream van} whilst posting ???
Why CAN't such an 'educated ex purt' get anything RIGHT ???
If Trump visits UK, will Donald ask to meet HIM [along with other top politico's}???
OR
Is inane'n'co just the 'prawn' { underwater Crawler} *WE ALL* think HE is ???

[gazza] 25/4/2019 22:25

Goy,I didn't realise Onan had so many ids!

[goyathlay] 25/4/2019 18:51

LSE warriors need to post on here:





This was created (tongue-in-cheek, I might add) in the bad old GKP days. It makes a quite amusing read.

[gazza] 25/4/2019 18:40

Bermuda, The 21p was for the first 5 targets. The SCIB1 value by TD was 4p. I calculated an share price of 68p by 2026 (launch) (SCIB1)The NPV calculation at 12.5% discount equates to 27p today.

[ivyspivey] 25/4/2019 18:37

Evening
Posted by Crumbs on LSE tonight’s presentation

[gazza] 25/4/2019 18:36

Tosh, no I won't repost. It was extremely offensive given my personal circumstances that most people on LSE know. Anyway, it got removed. Still waiting for an apology!

[bermudashorts] 25/4/2019 17:30

Gazza,

Will need to go back and double check but thought the TD valuation of 21p was the current valuation - is that what you're trying to get at or are you trying to arrive at a valuation in 2024?

[tosh123] 25/4/2019 17:28

Gazza,
i didnt see the offensive / threatening message over on LSE, would you share it over here ?

[tosh123] 25/4/2019 17:19

Thanks Gazza,
a lot more scientific than just plucking a random £8 out of the air.

[gazza] 25/4/2019 17:11

Tosh, Bermuda, ONW, All,

VALUATION (REALISTIC)

Interesting to see TD re-iterate their valuation figures. We had a discussion on valuation on LSE not long back. Ray Pointer provided a link to an article explaining Biotech drug valuations and it had a link to a spreadsheet you can download. It is very complex and takes into account all sorts of development costs (PDFU which I hadn't heard of but is quite substantial, orphan drug credits etc etc)

Anyway it did motivate me to investigate NPV which I now understand - Still not too bothered about rNPV (risk adjusted) that TD use.

So just as an update, if you take the TD sales forecast for SCIB1, use a 17.5% royalty, a PE of 20, a 60% GP and factor in 100% dilution, I get 68p per share when revenue starts to flow. If this is in 2026, the NPV using a 12.5% discount is an share price of 27p.

That's just for SCIB1. The dilution factor is high, maybe £20M allocated to SCIB1 alone is a bit high. What do you reckon it will cost to see SCIB1 through to market?

[tosh123] 25/4/2019 16:51

wriggle wriggle squirm squirm.

[inanaco] 25/4/2019 16:09

already have seen it ..

Hanna coming

[gazza] 25/4/2019 16:04

Inan,

"That will do for starters"
"We value Scancell at £82.0m, equivalent to 21.1p a share."

Are we to take it that this is your latest estimate/target?
Could you put a date on when we might see this?

[tosh123] 25/4/2019 15:48

Like i said, at least we have a sensible valuation from a professional outfit, not the £8 ramblings of a mad man who cant even tie his own shoe laces.