Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[gray1107] 05/12/2017 15:01

It's best not to engage them at all, their only goal is to disrupt sensible discourse by constant posting of FUD. There is no resoned debate with sock puppets, engaging only allows them to further clog the boards and mute hype.

[mount teide] 05/12/2017 14:45

LH - i would take what dishonestjim says with a very large pinch of salt - he has been totally wrong about the RTO to date.

What he is trying to disingenuously suggest here is that there is likely to be little II excitement about the deal, so in the unlikely event it does proceed, the book building will probably result in a very low placing price, enabling the shorters to exit with their shirts still on their backs! Lol!

[honestmarty] 05/12/2017 13:36

I would take what Agadem says with a large pinch of salt.

I often suspect he is on the sauce at the time of his posts.

He doesn’t know anything more than is in the public domain, and the price of the offering is not yet even decided. It will depend on the level of excitement (if any) that results from the book building.

[bushman1] 05/12/2017 12:58

Agadem, no disrespect intended to IH whatsover, could you please simply verify you were advised the figure of US $ 1.43 per share for the SAVP placing ? Many thanks.

[diversification] 05/12/2017 10:36

LH, if you do some research you will notice that production from the last Militia attack’s had no affect. It was only the SAA that stopped.

How would you try and steal gas?

[dorset64] 05/12/2017 09:41

lithological heterogeneities5 Dec '17 - 06:42 - 1645 of 1649 0 0
£1.06 placing price,dividend,big surprise,huge skin in the game by BoD is fantastic if true.

FINGERS CROSSED !
============================================================

PMSL!!!!

I take it now, you don't want to sell any of your shares, are happy to hold on to them until we re-list and the BoD's could well be the best thing since sliced bread!

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 09:35

Bushy

The RNS says they are raising $250m to cover the RTO and extra Niger drills. (is not just the RTO but extra for the Niger campaign).

Agadem says he has been told this $250m will be raised via a Placing of 175m shares at $1.43 (approx. £1.06 at current exchange rate).

[bushman1] 05/12/2017 09:07

IH. Could you please advise where the above figure of ' 175 million ' comes from ?

What is based upon ? Many thanks.

[thomasthetank1] 05/12/2017 08:39

Mirabaud note out today.

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) provided an update yesterday on its proposed RTO of Seven Energy’s producing gas assets onshore Nigeria. The comprehensive update added meat to the bones of the transaction, following the announcement of the lock-up agreement with certain of Seven’s debt holders in mid-November. Notably, Savannah confirmed the headline consideration of the deal will be US$270m, via a mixture of cash (US$100m), debt (US$85m) and equity (US$85m). According to the company, this is equivalent to an EV/2P of US$2.9/boe, and EV/capital invested to date of c.35%. Savannah expects the assets to add in excess of 20 kboepd of net production during 2018, and generate an average of US$88m of net free cash flow over the next five years. This opens up the possibility of annual dividends, which Savannah expects from FY18 onwards. In order to finance the deal, the company has proposed an equity placing of up to US$250m. The proceeds of which will also finance an expanded exploration programme in Niger of at least five wells (from three) and new 3D seismic, with the first well due to spud by the end of Q1 next year. Reflecting the increased scale of the business, the appointments of four new Board members has been proposed, including Isatou Semega-Janneh as interim CFO, and Rt. Hon. Sir Stephen O’Brien, David Clarkson and Michael Wachtel as non-executive directors.

[ifthecapfits] 05/12/2017 08:01

Keep taking those drugs Litho - makes for much more positive reading ;)

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 06:42

£1.06 placing price,dividend,big surprise,huge skin in the game by BoD is fantastic if true.FINGERS CROSSED !

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 06:40

Also from the other BB last night:Mon 21:52Price: 34.63AgademI will share one more bit with youAK is a finance guy and analyst. I've met him a few times and he is very dry and detailed. In 15th Nov RNS he said "we are pleased" . Today he said "extremely excited.". The few words he wrote in the RNS today are massively positive and totally out of character I am told that we will be in for a very big surprise in the admission doc RNS GLA.

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 06:36

The Placing is to raise $250m so his figs of 175m x $1.43 do add up to $250m.Assuming he is correct then: Placing price of $1.43 = £1.06His intraday day high guess of$2.30 = £1.71.Also,I found this quite interesting in the RNS:"Mr Andrew Knott, the Company's CEO, has informed Savannah that he intends to invest up to US$0.5m in the Placing."That's alot of money so maybe we could see a good return to the market with this sort of commitment/demand.

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 06:24

From the other BB last night:Mon 21:41Price: 34.63AgademRaise price & highest on openin dayIf it helps you guys, the raise will be 175m shares at $1.43. My guess of an intra-day high of 2.30 could still well happen as there will be a lot of upward pressure from new money and shorts closing. Malcy will be blogging and Im in close touch with IR Based on my numbers here the annual dividend will be 2.14p So if your average is circa 40p the same as mine, your yield will be 5.35% I'll take that, tax free all day long - and plus the huge capital growth Lets not forget, Agadem alone in Niger could have potentially given 16 per share even without the new transaction

[bushman1] 05/12/2017 05:44

Many thanks Zengas, excellent research.

[zengas] 04/12/2017 23:50

Checking the figures given in June to those given today, the 5 targets have increased again since June by 43% in unrisked recoverable.

"As part of this CPR, CGG has conducted a review of nine exploration leads and prospects ("Targets") across the Savannah PSCs which have been high-graded for potential drilling. CGG has assessed these Targets to carry a low risk profile (i.e. similar to those drilled elsewhere in the basin to date)".

These figures below are therefore from the upcoming Niger CPR and are greater than the figures issued back in June which were themselves greater again than what they started out with.

Latest figures in brackets compared to June 2017. Looks to be a further increase of 43% in unrisked recoverable.
Bushiya 31+17 = 46 mmbls. (Now 28+38 = 66 mmbls).
Amdigh 41 + 12 = 53 mmbls (Now 33+25 = 58 mmbls).
Kunama 10 +25 = 35 mmbls (Now 24 + 78 = 102 mmbls).
Damissa 74 + 41 = 115 mmbls (Now 82 + 55 = 137 mmbls).
Mena 39 + 15 = 54 mmbls (Now 54 + 16 = 70 mmbls).
Above 5 targets Total unrisked June 2017 = 303 mmbls.
Now = 433 mmbls.

[parisv] 04/12/2017 16:22

pro active article

[lithological heterogeneities] 04/12/2017 16:17

The dates below show the latest price targets for SAVP in Sep & Nov 2017 of 70p & 75p.

The obvious question here is are they based on the old SAVP. If so, then why are they issuing them both recently,well into the RTO period.Very misleading if they are and strange if they are not.

How can Panmure possibly issue a Research Report on 27 Sep 2017 when they have no idea of what is going on?

04 Dec 2017

"Savannah Petroleum Plc had 12 analyst reports since August 27, 2015 according to SRatingsIntel."
"Panmure Gordon maintained it with “Buy” rating and GBX 75 target in Monday, November 16 report."

06 Nov 2017

" Panmure Gordon restated a buy rating and set a GBX 70 ($0.87) price objective on shares of Savannah Petroleum PLC in a research report on Tuesday, September 27th."

[zengas] 04/12/2017 16:10

All down to the pricing but if the full $250m raise is completed I think it would leave the company with £100m cash.

Plans to turn the remaining 2C into 2P reserves - from circa 92mmboe P2 to 136 mmboe.
Cash producing. Established wells, infrastructure, significant production upside to 20k+ boepd (Personally i'm expecting decent future oil production increase at S/Creek).
Debt not due until 2027. Envisaged a n/term starter dividend of £9m/yr at current ex rates.

Expanded Niger drilling and likely full retention due to being cash rich.

If on the other hand we had not pursued this transaction. We could have given up some 850 mmbls recoverable target on a 50% farmout for say an initial $70m and staged commitments in a $250m farmout package and nothing else underpinning the company.

With production, significant reserves, cash flow and n/term dividend expectation and full exposure to Niger, what value the new entity considering £100m may be cash after this fund raise ?.

If successful in Niger they plan to have 18,000 bopd plateau production there in 2020 on a 70 mmbo development scenario at a cost of $200m to fist oil. Although some slippage by about 6 months now, if oil discovered i would expect 5k, then 10k bopd milestones. 40k+ boepd potential in the making over next 2 years ?

[gray1107] 04/12/2017 15:36

Moving forward with 100% of Niger is a vote of confidence for the anticipated result.

[ifthecapfits] 04/12/2017 15:17

I jest of course.

[ifthecapfits] 04/12/2017 15:17

£6 ;)-