Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[sunbed44] 31/5/2019 11:02

seller still dumping

[sunbed44] 31/5/2019 11:02

seller still dumping

[plentymorefish] 31/5/2019 10:40

Anyone care to hazard a guess what this nonsensical sentence at the end of Mirabaud's note released today means?!

"we don’t think that the shares won't stay here for long once Presidential sign off inevitably arrives."

I presume they meant to say....we don't think that the shares will stay here for long"

You really can't get the staff!

[thomasthetank1] 31/5/2019 10:02

Mirabaud note on Savannah Petroleum out today.

SAVANNAH PETROLEUM – FY RESULTS & OPERATIONS UPDATE

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced an update on the Seven Energy transaction this morning, alongside publication of its FY18 results. Citing 'good progress' on all aspects of the Seven deal, the group has successfully closed the acquisition of minorities’ interests in UERL (for US$3m in cash) – the local subsidiary holding Seven's interests in the Stubb Creek oil field?. In terms of the wider Seven transaction, the company reiterated that it expects completion in Q2, subject to final Government approval. We note that, following Nigerian elections in February, President Buhari was inaugurated this week which should see Government business gradually return to normal.

The FY18 ?numbers themselves are a non-event, with the face of the P&L reflecting a mix of G&A and transaction costs, culminating in a reported loss of US$24.6m - similar to the prior year. Financially, following the US$23m equity raise in Feb 19, the company remains well funded through to transaction completion. Notably, the company reiterated its intention to return capital to shareholders in 2019, either through a dividend and/or share buy-back. Once the Seven deal has completed we expect the group to flesh out the quantum and type of distribution (prior guidance was for a maiden dividend of US$12.5m).

Operationally, the Nigerian portfolio ?is performing well. Production in 2018 averaged 13 kboepd and this has increased to 17.7 kboepd year to date, largely as a result of higher gas deliveries to the Calabar power plant. Over the course of 2019 we expect volumes to trend towards take-or-pay levels (25.3 kboepd), with the addition of gas supplies to the Alaoji power plant. In Niger, meanwhile, activity is seen ramping up in H2 2019, with first oil from Amdigh-1 and the start of a multi-well exploration programme, potentially alongside a partner. Overall plenty to look forward to over the next 6 months.

In our minds, SAVP shares have been unfairly marked down by perceived risks around the Seven transaction, creating an attractive entry point for investors. At current levels, the stock trades at a hefty 80% discount to Total NAV, with Niger alone (worth 27p/shr, risked) more than underpinning the current share price. With today's news providing comfort that the group is in the final throes ?of closing the deal, we don’t think that the shares won't stay here for long once Presidential sign off inevitably arrives.

[nen2319] 31/5/2019 09:44

Good news about the dividend. Silly paying money out when you are trying to grow and are at a such early stage of growth. Biggest trade reported so far by H&L is 105k shares so guess trades are delayed.

[jotoha2] 31/5/2019 09:05

Ready to take a milion if I can get them at the right price .

[moho30] 31/5/2019 08:57

All sounds optimistic - but some concerns over near term funding. How certain are they of getting the $90m on completion (by end June) ? If not they admit they'll have to come back to the market - and at what price ?

[ghhghh] 31/5/2019 08:52

Oil tanking today, not helping sector sentiment, but one of the attractions of SAVP is its resilience to low oil.

Last 4 Broker Notes I've seen all rate SAVP around 80p. Should be some interesting updates next few days highlighting this differential with share price.

Surprised the sellers don't let this bounce a bit before dumping again, unless they know something we don't!

[zengas] 31/5/2019 08:50

Topped up in total by 400k. That's me. Was waiting for a detailed outline of where we are on the deal to make up my mind re further buying. New improved deal is worth up to $1b of value. Niger successes very repeatable.

[haideralifool] 31/5/2019 08:42

honestmarty, Zengas also sold out of i3e at just the right time! So I have him down as a shrewdie as well.

[ghhghh] 31/5/2019 08:40

Agreed, I've bought 500K this am

Niger, imply H2 farm out

Niger partial completion, rest imminent.

Directors complaining shares too cheap despite 120 meetings!

My only concern is they haven't updated re current cash position?

[zengas] 31/5/2019 08:26

Very good CEO and Chairman letter detailing the process to date.

Added a further 250k this am.

[plentymorefish] 31/5/2019 08:18

It's all his own work, he's been 'highly confident' of this deal completing for around 4 quarters in a row now. I'm more than confident the next update will be around the end of June, stating that the company 'expects' the deal to complete in H2 2019. In the (unlikely) event of the deal completing, the shares may double which will take them to (drum roll) around the same price they were a few months ago (mid to high 30's). If that's delivering shareholder value, I'd hate to see them change strategy!

[honestmarty] 31/5/2019 08:13

Unfortunately for AK, it appears that he has lost the confidence of the market.

This could go red, falling back already on an update that should have been well received.

I might have to buy some.

[sleveen] 31/5/2019 07:56

He'll take a few pies with him.

[honestmarty] 31/5/2019 07:47

Sign off is happening in the next 4 weeks.

It won't be an AGM, more like a pub crawl and coronation of AK.

IF true.

[buffythebuffoon] 31/5/2019 07:39

What’s happened to the AGM, or did I miss the announcement?

Surely we are not waiting for the sign off before announcing it?


Buffy

[honestmarty] 31/5/2019 07:39

Share price underperformance incorrectly attributed to increased risk of RTO not completing,when actually delay due to changes to RTO structure.

Share buy back attempt to address price underperformance.

[honestmarty] 31/5/2019 07:22

Not the surrender on the RTO the

market is expecting.

Stubbs Creek now secured

That's over 1000 bopd ?

What's happening on the dividend?

[sunbed44] 30/5/2019 15:32

seller in play 200k and 300k sales going through daily share price holding up strange happenings

[jotoha2] 29/5/2019 20:08

bent banana , I have many friends who will invest once we have confirmation of deal going through , at this stage there is a risk of failure , so no point going in with proper cash.

[honestmarty] 29/5/2019 13:12

Has joto a history?

[sunbed44] 29/5/2019 12:52

he is closing short positions