Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bent banana] 29/5/2019 12:03

jotoha2 can't you get your mates to buy a load?

[jotoha2] 29/5/2019 10:12

And another 80k , once we get closer to deal completion will take around 1m

[nen2319] 29/5/2019 10:09

Marty - made me laff! We could always have a whip round?

[honestmarty] 29/5/2019 09:48

If they took AK, at this stage I'd probably pay them to keep him.

[honestmarty] 29/5/2019 09:06

Small???

I'd love to see big.

[jotoha2] 29/5/2019 09:03

Thanks honesty , have taken a small initial amount this morning 136 k

[sunbed44] 28/5/2019 15:07

shorts being closed slowly and surely looks like some are expecting or know news is due soon first blue day for weeks and week 100p next stop

[honestmarty] 28/5/2019 11:08

Jotoha
28p

[sunbed44] 28/5/2019 11:03

looks like a few little shorts been closed today maybe news coming soon

[jotoha2] 28/5/2019 10:56

Does anyone know the price at which the last shares were issued , thanks

[beergut] 28/5/2019 09:45

sunbed44

is that for the whole company?

[itsriskythat] 28/5/2019 08:49

So no update this morning, what does that say about the communications side of the business?

[plentymorefish] 26/5/2019 14:52

The MCAP, quite possibly....

[sunbed44] 26/5/2019 14:07

One pound by Christmas?

[sunbed44] 26/5/2019 14:07

£1 by Christmas?

[buffythebuffoon] 26/5/2019 12:56

Ngms, can you imagine what five consecutive sucesses would have done to the share price if James Parsons was in charge. He got SOU multibagging on far less.

I don’t trust the bloke farther than I can throw him, but he would have given us a great opportunity to cash in.

Buffy

[ppceh] 26/5/2019 10:49

Sunbed

The purpose of these boards is to share knowledge. I do what I can.

Your rudeness is unnecessary

[ngms27] 26/5/2019 09:34

100p perhaps Buffy

[sunbed44] 25/5/2019 20:50

Ppceh grow up and do your own homework and then report back please be great for you to contribute rather than question others

[ppceh] 25/5/2019 19:05

Zengas

Company and brokers I believe were using circa $6/b for Niger.

They have supposedly around 52 mmbls from the 5 discoveries and using $4-$6/b = maybe $200m-$300m/£150m/£225m value - so at 880m shares = 17-25p range. Near term production for cash flow.

Thanks, good post

Can you please clarify when this $4 - 6 valuation was made? The problem with Niger has been commercialising any discoveries via transportation. What time frame is this broker’s note working off?

[zengas] 25/5/2019 10:59

At the time of the last placing - "As announced in previous regulatory updates, the Company expects a cash inflow of US$90m upon completion of the Seven Energy Transaction."

They have a $50m facility from the oil trading group arranged just over 6 months ago. I believe they were going to lease/rent the EPS facility equipment. They've submitted the feasibility scheme to Niger government 2 months ago.

One thing they do have is 5 separate discovered fields in Niger and near term production. There have been other entrants into Niger since. CNPC/Government are favouring the Benin route. I've no doubt there will be interest in us and our fields there if not already.

Exploration wells are still low cost (circa under $4.5m) to drill the Sokor alternances to where most of the easy oil can be discovered so not one shot wonders or high cost wells - ie miss and the moneys all gone.

With up to 2.8 billion bls RISKED recoverable (about 4 billion bls unrisked) mid case, it's an opportunity that can't be ignored imo given the 100% success rate so far.

As regards empire building, i suppose it depends on how you look at or gauge their strategy. If it was to derisk - have 2 separate asset bases ie Niger and Nigeria and keep as much of the upside in Niger as possible and Nigeria would be a cash cow to fund Niger ? At the moment we still have all of Niger and around $10-$15 billion worth of oil at $4-$6/b for the risked figure to chase and a good chunk of it very low risk so imo if I can't get a 100p out of this for Niger alone i'll be surprised. Niger will kick off sooner or later. AK has a huge stake in this to deliver value and there's too many top end institutions involved in this not to recognise the huge value potential here from Niger alone.

[buffythebuffoon] 25/5/2019 10:25

Without wishing to awaken JohhnyT/Ngms, just think where the share price would be if we’d not tried to empire build so soon, and drilled the 5 Niger wells without the suspensions.

Of course, we may get the Seven deal signed off, having incentivised the appropriate person/people, and then AK will look like a hero.

I’d be delighted if he looked like a hero, but I’m increasingly looking at the fallback position, as more and more posts like Zengas’ above will appear.

Buffy

[zengas] 25/5/2019 10:19

Div

Company and brokers I believe were using circa $6/b for Niger.

They have supposedly around 52 mmbls from the 5 discoveries and using $4-$6/b = maybe $200m-$300m/£150m/£225m value - so at 880m shares = 17-25p range. Near term production for cash flow.

With a 2.8 billion recoverable range there's still huge upside even with a partner.
10% success from that 2.8 billion bls is around £1-£1.50.

I know the deal is holding everything up but I definitely haven't lost sight of what's in Niger at very low exploration risk as evidenced to date. Even at this diluted level solely for Niger the upside is substantial and why I haven't thought about selling. I think many have forgotten about this as they focus on will it/won't it happen in Nigeria.

With the oil discoveries there, they have a $50m loan facility they might tap from the oil trading group.

If the Nigerian deal successfully closes I think they said it would bring in some $90m (nearly 6 months ago). I did ask one time what's happening to all the cash that's being generated by continuing operations the longer this goes on and if I recall I think I read it correctly that this was reducing the overall debt level that Accugas/Savp/IIMB were taking on and ultimately beneficial for shareholders.

Also regards elements of the deal causing delay, another factor is the Nigerian Electricity Regulator approval of the Creek Town - Calabar gas pipeline that was being bought. With that going through the regulator for approval, it in turn would have to be wrapped up and finalised before everything submitted for government approval. We as PIs can't pinpoint what is causing the delay. But if shorters, PIs others etc drip sell as the share price goes lower exacerbating the decline over the Nigerian deal uncertainty while ignoring the 100% success rate and upside in Niger, there's not much anyone can do. If the company hasn't got all clearance yet they may be just waiting like the rest of us for sign off so can't say much other than before and i'm sure they know investors don't want to hear another expected time frame for completion... ??

[buffythebuffoon] 25/5/2019 10:03

Extra notes required to be put in the envelope.

You heard it here first.

Buffy