Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[itsriskythat] 01/5/2019 12:14

Is this going to an up day at last?

[itsriskythat] 30/4/2019 19:45

Today the Chairman and CEO of Total, Patrick Pouyanne met the Nigerian Vice-President and the Petroleum Minister Ibe Kachikwu at the State House in Abuja, Nigeria.

The occasion was to receive praise for Total's work in Nigeria.



Am I expecting a lot for it to be Andrew Knott's turn tomorrow?

[bushman1] 30/4/2019 15:01

Many thanks Zengas.

This is extremely informative.

A great many moving parts ~ as noted by GHH GHH

[honestmarty] 30/4/2019 12:36

News from Nigeria could well land intraday.
Watch for a buying surge.

[honestmarty] 30/4/2019 12:26

Thanks Zengas.
I agree on Niger.
I assumed the cash windfall on completion of RTO would fund some flow testing, first oil to refinery and a start on a drilling campaign.

Better price then for a farm out.

[divmad] 30/4/2019 11:15

Can buy at 21.5p now. Have just done so.

[zengas] 30/4/2019 10:53

bushman, the implementation agreement was signed on the 4th Feb. Then a series of pre agreed work streams were to be concluded from that point onwards.

Given there are a number of companies involved (look at Frontier and UERL plus the UERL minorities buy out alone) it takes all those individual actions to come through at that end in a timely fashion. There's 2 fields plus pipelines and gas plant and therefore only takes the delay in one strand while the majority of the deal may already be completed before up for ministerial approval. New customers have been pursued and a new power station signed up as well as a new pricing structure to Calabar I believe plus additional pipeline construction/buy out. Stubb Creek (UERL) isn't crucial imo to the deal though it has significant 2C that will supply customers when the Uquo field depletes in the future. It has relatively small oil production but the Uquo gas field is important now as it supplies the customers and I suppose the main rationale/driver in buying the gas supply business as an overall package.

edit - Marty my understanding is Niger ops will restart asap. (board wont say what rationale they have for their plan). I feel cashflow from Nigeria would fund this in the short term before taking on any partner. That might be why they decided to delay on Niger. Maybe they feel that even with a delay that with the outstanding 100% success rate they want to capture as much of the easier earlier successes rather than introduce a partner too cheaply or early.

[bushman1] 30/4/2019 09:05

perhaps Agadem ?

[bushman1] 30/4/2019 09:03

Good post GHHGHH. Zengas, I can't remember, did you mention on LSE the Implementation Agreement had been signed or was that another investor. Many thanks.

[ghhghh] 30/4/2019 08:54

Thanks

So what can go wrong?

1. Govt Approval denied. Presumably would only be the case if SAVP 'gazumped' but we would still own the 7E bonds which would have value plus the SSF of $28m. This appears extremely unlikely but can't be too cautious re Nigeria. LEK a case in point.

2. Hold outs. Creditors refusing to accept haircuts. This should have been sorted by now,Implementation Agreement signed. Assume unlikely anyone can hold up Administration process?

3. Funding issues. Problems with the small print. Greatest risk?

Any others?

[itsriskythat] 29/4/2019 17:40

Reply to ghhghh:

Under the exchange offer nearly all of the SSN holders agreed to swap their $318m nominal notes for $50.0m in cash and $102m in value of Savannah shares at a nominal 35p.

This swap has already occurred.

On completion of the transaction the debt will comprise $105m new 10.5% SUGL notes to be held by Uquo, and $470m of Accugas facilities, comprising of several individual facilities with the largest being the $371m Accugas IV facility.

Savannah does not hold any debt under the Seven Transaction. The Accugas facilities will be non-recourse to Savannah Nigeria.

Savannah has however already issued 224m shares to SSN holders and given $50.0m cash to the former note holders.

The company has been running up corporate and legal fees for the several proposed deals inside the Seven transaction. The size of the fees will be declared in the results.

So at worst the company has been diluted by 224.0m shares and wasted upwards of $50m cash.

[plentymorefish] 29/4/2019 16:46

The share price is telling you the deal won't close - I think AK sees himself as smarter than the average bear (as he appears arrogant in the interviews I've seen him do) but his numerous 'tweaks' to the deal since it was first conceived in June 2017 (yep, nearly 2 years!) have caused it to drag on when it should have been closed by now. How ironic if he doesn't now manage to get it over the line!

[honestmarty] 29/4/2019 16:27

Small???
We were worth 100's of millions.

[honestmarty] 29/4/2019 15:28

No.
They would need to wear helmets and body armour.

[buffythebuffoon] 29/4/2019 14:54

The AGM was 3rd May last year. Have they announced when this year’s AGM is?

Buffy

[gisjob2] 29/4/2019 14:15

To be fair maybe he should as he owns so many shares. He could at least stop quoting completion dates for the Seven deal when he obviously has no idea when it will complete.

[itsriskythat] 29/4/2019 12:57

Remember that Andrew Knott doesn't pay attention to the share price!

[honestmarty] 29/4/2019 11:49

Zengas.
How did they explain the delay?
Did both say the same thing?
Why nothing on Niger?

Thanks

[zengas] 29/4/2019 11:43

If you look at yesterdays MOS tip for PPC run by Peter Levine who holds some 29% and along with institutional investors to an overall total of 70%, problem it said (share price) was exacerbated by small individual investors selling out on low liquidity - perhaps the same here given the high institutional holdings.

I spoke with 2 people at Savp in the past fortnight and while of no comfort to anyone i'm sure, both reiterated that the deal will go through.

[divmad] 29/4/2019 11:01

Someone's had enough.

[honestmarty] 29/4/2019 10:58

5 untested rusty pipes in the middle of the desert in Niger?

[ghhghh] 29/4/2019 10:53

Finals Results should be out soon.

Re delay, its a complicated deal with many moving parts so I'm not blaming directors.

I'm nervous because I don't understand the full detail.

We now own Seven Energy 10.25% bonds but these are worthless unless all creditors agree to restructuring and Seven goes into Administration.

Has ALL creditors now agreed terms?

What are the remaining stumbling points aside from Ministerial Approval?

And the big one, what are we left with if deal doesn't complete? We have Super Senior $28m but what else?

[divmad] 29/4/2019 07:11

How they could have missed their previous self declared deadline by at least 4 weeks is simply mind blowingly incompetent . It doesn't augur well for their ability to meet future operational targets in Nigeria in a timely manner, should this deal go through eventually.