Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[honestmarty] 27/2/2019 22:26

Nigeria appears to be in the bag.

4, 6, even 8 weeks?

I believe it is now ,finally, going to happen.

Niger is about to come back into focus.

Some healthy flow rates and a few pictures of tankers could work wonders.

We must be due an announcement on the 2 new rigs soon?

[thelung] 27/2/2019 21:55

Same article:

While the opposition is highly likely to challenge the results in court, alleging massive voter fraud, the potential for violence to erupt in the immediate aftermath of the vote remains limited. However, there is potential for violence, including in the oil-producing Niger Delta region, in the context of the upcoming state-level elections on 9 March,” Malte Liewerscheidt, West Africa analyst at risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence, said in a note Tuesday.

However, not all analysts agree and some say that threats of more disruption could be bluster. Nigeria is unlikely to descend into another period of oil sabotage regardless of won the election at the weekend, experts told CNBC last week

[red rook] 27/2/2019 20:03

Great potential here, but still too much risk and further delays possible in completing the Seven deal.


Holly Ellyatt
Published 9 Hours Ago Updated 5 Hours Ago

"With the opposition alleging fraud and refusing to the accept the outcome, the risk of further unrest remains high in the weeks ahead, especially in the restive oil region, which was the scene of some of the worst Election Day unrest," Croft said in a note Wednesday co-authored with RBC analysts Christopher Louney, Michael Tran and strategist Megan Schippmann.

"If this election does bring a return to militancy in Nigeria's oil region and major infrastructure attacks, it would be a very material event for the oil market, with two OPEC countries (Venezuela and Iran) under U.S. sanctions and Saudi Arabia continuing to cut production," they noted.

[sammy g] 27/2/2019 13:30

Interesting comments today by Hannam & Partners which shows the value on offer here.You don't see such bargains very often these days and it is only a matter of time before this will have to be marked up closer to core NAV of 55p per share.



Hannam & Partners – Oil Daily Download

27/02/2019

BUYING OPPORTUNITY - Today's news of a result in the Nigerian election, Buhari winning a second term, and the scheduling of the General Meeting to complete the final shareholder approvals of Seven deal (as above) we fully expect Savannah to continue to move to the final stages of completion of the Seven Energy deal.As a result of the new structure of the deal announced in December,we upped our risked NAV to 89p/sh.

Savannah stock trades at 30% of our risked NAV and 50% discount to our core NAV of 55p/sh.SAVP is trading on relatively low cash flow multiples already in 2019 before substantial growth in earnings and cash flow in 2020 puts it on very low multiples (e.g. EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x in 2019,dropping to just 2.5x in 2020). We also note that the valuation of Uquo/Accugas has virtually no exposure to oil prices since contracted gas prices are escalated by some 6% p.a.

[sammy g] 27/2/2019 12:43

Pressure building on level 2,could finish 27.5p - 28p region with a push to 30p tomorrow IMO.In just a few weeks time there is some rather significant developments arriving which will transform the share price Thinking of adding to my SIPP too :-)

[mount teide] 27/2/2019 12:37

Underhand, duplicitous shysters like 'dishonest' have well earned their zero credibility rating!

[honestmarty] 27/2/2019 12:32

Ho,Ho,Ho....

[nen2319] 27/2/2019 12:23

It’s your fault Marty. You’ve put everyone off. 😀

[honestmarty] 27/2/2019 11:57

Intrigued at the total lack of retail interest.

On paper the market cap puts it beyond the reach of the ramping classes.

But,

With the very limited free stock,

A mob arriving could have a significant impact.

[sammy g] 27/2/2019 11:03

Two HUGE BUYS just published from this morning ! one £259k and another £127k

Someone is loading up big here

25.50
1,017,004
259.34k


25.50
500,000
127.50k

[sammy g] 27/2/2019 10:04

Huge delayed buy of £65k @ 25.5p and also a number of £10k - £20k buys around it :-) This has been held back so far today for a very big buyer,but this will have a strong finish today IMO

[rimau1] 27/2/2019 09:54

The risk/reward is massively skewed to the upside now. Political risk removed and confirmation that the deal should land in March, I am surprised this is still 26p, And have had a final top up. I appreciate all Nigeria O&G gets a well deserved discount applied to NAV but on deal completion we will be north of 35p

[itsriskythat] 27/2/2019 09:49

Obviously the higher the price goes between now and the Transaction closing the less the dilution from new shares, the Universal, Stubb Creek and New Money shares.

[sammy g] 27/2/2019 09:43

This is now looking far too cheap for what is on offer,i would be surprised if this is not north of 35p in a few weeks time.I predict this will be hitting the radar of quite a few investors when they see the numbers involved and multiple upside.

[thomasthetank1] 27/2/2019 09:13

Hannam & Partners – Oil Daily Download

BUYING OPPORTUNITY - Today's news of a result in the Nigerian election, Buhari winning a second term, and the scheduling of the General Meeting to complete the final shareholder approvals of Seven deal (as above) we fully expect Savannah to continue to move to the final stages of completion of the Seven Energy deal. As a result of the new structure of the deal announced in December, we upped our risked NAV to 89p/sh.

Savannah stock trades at <30% of our risked NAV and >50% discount to our core NAV of 55p/sh. SAVP is trading on relatively low cash flow multiples already in 2019 before substantial growth in earnings and cash flow in 2020 puts it on very low multiples (e.g. EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x in 2019, dropping to just 2.5x in 2020). We also note that the valuation of Uquo/Accugas has virtually no exposure to oil prices since contracted gas prices are escalated by some 6% p.a..

[thomasthetank1] 27/2/2019 09:01

Morning all - please see below from Mirabaud this morning.

It emerged overnight that the incumbent Nigerian President Muhammadu Buharia had won a second term at the helm of the country. The elections were billed as being too close to call, however the winning margin ultimately was wide, with almost four million votes separating the two leading parties. We see the result as positive for E&Ps operating in Nigeria. A decisive victory either way is key to ensuring stability in the aftermath of Nigerian elections, and Buhari’s second term mitigates against any risk of sweeping changes to the Ministry. We therefore expect the likes of Seplat (SEPL LN), Eland (ELA LN), Lekoil (LEK LN) to react positively to the news. It is arguably Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN), however, which will be most encouraged by the result, with its reverse takeover of Seven Energy in its final throes now effectively awaiting just Ministerial approval. Yesterday, in a largely procedural RNS, the company reaffirmed its expectation that the transaction will complete on or before the end of March, and with the election result going in Savannah’s favour, the risks to this timescale have further reduced.

[laptop15] 27/2/2019 08:37

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1100676156699918336?s=19

[laptop15] 27/2/2019 08:12

NICE blue start guys and I expect more buying pressure today as the day goes one :)

[divmad] 27/2/2019 06:26

This must be our preferred outcome. Now let's get the Seven Energy deal finally put to bed.

[bushman1] 27/2/2019 06:08

Nigerian voters reelected Muhammadu Buhari to serve a second and final term in office as president of Africa’s most populous nation and its biggest economy.

Buhari beat a former ally and ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar in a vote that was seen as a close contest in the run up to the February 23 vote.

At the end of the process, however, it turned out that Buhari’s support for a final term was big and wide. He beat Atiku by close to four million votes to emerge winner.

He becomes only the second man to achieve the feat of securing two straight terms. The first president was Olusegun Obasanjo who won two terms (1999 – 2007).

The other two presidents post-1999 were Umar Musa Yar’Adua who died in office and Goodluck Jonathan who won 2011 vote but failed to secure reelection in 2015.

[honestmarty] 26/2/2019 22:38

President re-elected.

Hopefully a speedy return to normal government.

The latest RNS suggests that deal closure is imminent.

[shareideas1] 26/2/2019 18:50

No change to prior terms