Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[honestmarty] 11/2/2019 07:25

Predictable given the share price

Less cash yes, but do we need it?

7E cash generation, a farm out, and EPS 1000 bopd

Less dilution to worry about is the upside.

Onwards and upwards.

[zengas] 10/2/2019 18:22

$423,859,000 debt ??? WTF? 1/2 billion!!!!!!

Keep up to date. Shows how ridiculously and poorly researched you are about Seven Energy and your endless giddy lols.

"Seven has been in default on all of its debt instruments (amounting to approximately US$900 million in aggregate) since May 2017 and has not been servicing this debt." Page 14 adm doc.

[sunbed44] 10/2/2019 17:27

Everybody understands all the debt, it's all part of the RTO with the debt being totally restructured.

[alamaison5] 10/2/2019 10:51

Seven energy have $423,859,000 debt. Check RNS bellow.
WTF? 1/2 billion!!!!!!

No trolling as I am in at 25.2p, lol.

Taken from LEK BB:
alamaison58 Feb '19 - 13:10 - 4754 of 4760 Edit
Bought SAVP at 25.2p. Another great Nigerian share, lol.

hxxp://www.sevenenergy.com/~/media/Files/S/Seven-Energy/press-release/q3-2016-result.pdf

[zengas] 10/2/2019 10:04

I stated in my previous post on Friday that VR Global were not on the shareholder list and may have been the seller -

"Don't know what the story is with VR Global - I actually think they are or could have been a seller. They were last showing 37m and on todays 879m shares in issue would mean a holding of 4.2% but they are not in the main shareholder list as of today".

Well they are on the list and they haven't sold a single share as their holding is unchanged since 12 months ago at 37.322m ie 4.24%. VR Global is run by one of the worlds top hedge fund managers, Richard Deitz.

8 Major shareholders now own over half the company.

10 major shareholders own over 60%.

4 major institutions have added substantially.

Miton have added another 40m since previous.
Standard life have bought a further 27m.
TT International added 7m.
Hambro added 15m compared to previous filings.

Petro Ventures had originally I believe 17m and would be outside the 3% reporting level as per previous.

Miton 87.8m = 9.98%
Standard Life 73.629m = 8.37%.
Ashmore Investment 57.257m = 6.51%.
JO Hambro Capital 55.335m = 6.29%.
Capital Group 50.742m = 5.77%.
TT International 48.8m = 5.55%.
IFC (World Bank Arm) 38.986m = 4.43%.
Fidelity 38.888m = 4.42%.
VR Global 37.322m = 4.24%.
Legal & General 31.731m = 3.61%

(CEO 3.15%)

[shareideas1] 08/2/2019 16:00

Looks like it - with seller out of the way, all eyes now to ministerial consents as next milestone...

[laptop15] 08/2/2019 15:51

Overhang cleared possibly now with that large delayed filled order. Also one yesterday so that might be the end of them :)

[laptop15] 08/2/2019 15:49

What an absolute fool alamaison5 is geez....filtered....a complete bumbling troll. ..ignore or filter is the best treatment for him!!

[thomasthetank1] 08/2/2019 15:46

Article on Savannah Petroleum in Alliance News today.

Alliance News
TAKING AIM: Savannah Petroleum Passes "Milestone" In West Africa
By George Collard
8 February 2019

Savannah Petroleum has reached a "hugely" important milestone in Nigeria, Shore Capital said on Friday, while there is also promise in Niger.

Shore Capital provides issuer sponsored research on Savannah, and was lead manager on its USD23 million placing in January.

Savannah shares were 1.6% higher on Friday afternoon at a price of 25.10 pence each. The stock is down 5.3% so far in 2019.

On Monday, Savannah announced the signing of an implementation agreement with Seven Energy, which legal aspects and provisions for Savannah's acquisition of some Nigerian assets from Seven.

An amended deal with Seven Energy, announced at the end of December, will see Savannah take 55% of midstream business Accugas, increasing its holding to 75%.

Savannah also is under the new deal to provide a facility of up to USD28 million to Seven Energy.

"In our opinion, signature of the implementation agreement is a hugely important milestone as Savannah progresses towards final completion, providing a legally binding template and securing commitments from all parties to deliver the Seven deal," said Shore's Craig Howie.

"The receipt of ministerial approval is a key next step, and we are confident this will be received timeously, highlighting the fact the ministry has already completed its due diligence and written to confirm its satisfaction with the transaction."

The deal was first announced in June 2017, and Savannah expects it to finally complete in the first quarter of 2019.

Howie, despite the long time-frame, is confident changes made to the deal during the takeover timetable are both "accretive and strategically important", meaning the delays have been for solid reasons.

"With relevant amendments now agreed and incorporated into the implementation agreement, Savannah is firmly positioned to press on with the remaining transaction workstreams, which it describes as being largely legal and procedural in nature," commented Howie.

The amendments to the deal are cash flow and net present value accretive to Savannah, Howie continued, and also grant the firm full control of Accugas.

Shore has made some changes to its forecasts on the back of both the amendments and timing of the deal, saying timing is important as Savannah will be entitled to revenue.

Shore is forecasting revenue of USD186.0 million in 2019, which would be Savannah's maiden revenue. This is expected to surge to USD344.2 million in 2020.

As a result, the broker expects Savannah to swing to a GBP30.0 million pretax profit in 2019 from a USD35.9 million forecast loss in 2018. In 2020, pretax profit is expected to surge to USD106.2 million.

These forecasts also reflect Shore's "very high hopes" for Savannah's operations in Niger, focused on the Agadem Rift basin, given discoveries made and "excellent" drilling results.

Savannah made a discovery in all five of its drilled wells at Agadem in 2018, and it is lining up a second drilling programme this year made up of both exploration and development wells.

Howie expects more detailed plans for 2019 in Niger to come soon, but given Savannah has already successfully handed over an early production system pre-feasibility study to the Niger government, he is confident the discoveries can be commercialised.

Shore's forecasts include expected first oil from Niger this year.

These is also the possibility for a farm-out in Niger, Shore's Howie continued, and he believes that sort of arrangement might be the most suitable for Savannah as it would provide the cash to accelerate exploration.

"We had been of the view delivery of deal-related milestones could provide some important event-driven catalysts for investors, and have therefore been slightly disappointed to see the muted share price response following Monday's news," said Howie.

Notwithstanding this, final Seven completion remains the main corporate event for Savannah in the shorter term and we fully anticipate a much higher share price once the deal is done and dusted."

"In the meantime, we have overhauled our models to reflect the final transaction terms and timing and confidently upgrade our risked net asset value estimate to 80p per share from 75p per share. We firmly reiterate our Buy recommendation," he concluded.

[zengas] 08/2/2019 13:43

Shareholdings update.

Holdings above 3.15% = 63%

8 Major shareholders now own over half the company. 4 major institutions have added substantially

Miton have added another 40m since previous.
Standard life have bought a further 27m.
TT International added 7m.
Hambro added 15m compared to previous filings.

Petro Ventures had originally I believe 17m and would be outside the 3% reporting level as per previous.

Don't know what the story is with VR Global - I actually think they are or could have been a seller. They were last showing 37m and on todays 879m shares in issue would mean a holding of 4.2% but they are not in the main shareholder list as of today.

Miton 87.8m = 9.98%
Standard Life 73.629m = 8.37%.
Ashmore Investment 57.257m = 6.51%.
JO Hambro Capital 55.335m = 6.29%.
Capital Group 50.742m = 5.77%.
TT International 48.8m = 5.55%.
IFC (World Bank Arm) 38.986m = 4.43%.
Fidelity 38.888m = 4.42%.
Legal & General 31.731m = 3.61%

(CEO 3.15%)

[zengas] 08/2/2019 13:42

Shareholdings update.

Holdings above 3.15% = 63%

8 Major shareholders now own over half the company. 4 major institutions have added substantially

Miton have added another 40m since previous.
Standard life have bought a further 27m.
TT International added 7m.
Hambro added 15m compared to previous filings.

Petro Ventures had originally I believe 17m and would be outside the 3% reporting level as per previous.

Don't know what the story is with VR Global - I actually think they are or could have been a seller. They were last showing 37m and on todays 879m shares in issue would mean a holding of 4.2% but they are not in the main shareholder list as of today.

Miton 87.8m = 9.98%
Standard Life 73.629m = 8.37%.
Ashmore Investment 57.257m = 6.51%.
JO Hambro Capital 55.335m = 6.29%.
Capital Group 50.742m = 5.77%.
TT International 48.8m = 5.55%.
IFC (World Bank Arm) 38.986m = 4.43%.
Fidelity 38.888m = 4.42%.
Legal & General 31.731m = 3.61%

(CEO 3.15%)

[gmr64] 08/2/2019 11:42

Shore Cap:
SAVANNAH PETROLEUM+ (SAVP, 24.7p, BUY)
On the home straight

We have this morning published a note on Savannah Petroleum, entitled “On the home straight”. This follows an important announcement from the company on 4 February, when Savannah confirmed successful signature of the Seven Energy implementation agreement, paving the way for ministerial consent and final completion of this transformational deal in Q1 2019. Highly accretive transaction amendments have resulted in an extended completion timetable although, with these changes now incorporated into the signed implementation agreement, we share Savannah’s confidence that the transaction will be fully consummated in the current quarter (in line with prior guidance). We had been of the view that delivery of deal-related milestones could provide some important event-driven catalysts for investors, and have therefore been slightly disappointed to see the muted share price response following Monday’s news. Notwithstanding this, final Seven completion remains the main corporate event for Savannah in the shorter term and we fully anticipate a much higher share price once the deal is done and dusted. In the meantime, we have overhauled our models to reflect the final transaction terms and timing and confidently upgrade our Risked NAV estimate to 80p/share (from 75p/share). We firmly reiterate our BUY recommendation.

[alamaison5] 08/2/2019 11:35

Seven energy owe:

Borrowing 423,859,000!!!!!! WTF? 1/2 billion!!!!!!


hxxp://www.sevenenergy.com/~/media/Files/S/Seven-Energy/press-release/q3-2016-result.pdf

[alamaison5] 08/2/2019 11:08

SAVP did succeed in finding oil in Niger.
It's been months and still, no testing was achieved. Why?
Since then, nothing. No plan, no communication. Perhaps they need reminding?
Useless bod...

[nen2319] 07/2/2019 18:23

Must be selling at a loss then?

[timberwolf3] 07/2/2019 17:27

5 million shares sold at 24.75p, now we know what has been weighing this down.

[bad gateway] 07/2/2019 16:39

Guess Nigeria's not that great to depend on for deals then. Who'd of thunk it?
Still massively outperforming LEK even with the deal being tardy

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ifthecapfits] 07/2/2019 16:30

Its the BOTS which have taken control. All those trades of between £230 & £250. Games afoot.

[alamaison5] 07/2/2019 15:38

24.1p on the bid, lol.

LAPTOP: Correction. Deal expected in 2018.
Now?? well....whenever. This is Nigeria after all, lol...

[laptop15] 07/2/2019 14:58

Bought a few big chunks today.....worth the risk at this level with the deal expected this quarter.....surely has to happen soon

[divmad] 07/2/2019 10:34

I don't know who voted my last post down, but what is wrong with it? It was an unusual comment to make by the CEO and needs elaboration.

[divmad] 07/2/2019 10:13

Thomas the tank 1, can you please elaborate on AK's comment in that ends, which you do not reproduce in your post conveniently, that the "cooperation of certain third parties... will be required to implement the transaction".Who are these "third parties"?How big are they?Is it like the EU, where one nation can veto an entire piece of legislation?