Ryanair Share Discussion Threads

[lbo] 02/7/2008 16:37

It bought more than 43 million shares on Sept. 27 - the IPO date - at an average price of €2.37 (US$2.98); 25 million more the next day at an average €2.45 (US$3.08); 8 million on Sept. 29 at €2.47 (US$3.10); nearly 8 million more on Oct. 4 at €2.49 (US$3.13); and 16.5 million on the day its takeover plans became public at €2.79 (US$3.51)



Now trading at €1.30 means they have lost over €120m on Aer Lingus!

[lbo] 02/7/2008 16:08

Not only will Ryanair lose money in Ryanair but it will lose more money in Aer Lingus!

Ryanair and Aer Lingus 'facing €1.5bn oil shock'


RYANAIR and Aer Lingus face combined losses of up to €1.5bn by the end of next year if oil prices hit the $200 mark.

Calculations by Davy analyst Stephen Furlong suggest that Ryanair could lose €555m this year and a further €651m in 2009 on oil prices of $200 per barrel. Aer Lingus could face loses of €51.3m this year and a further €238m next year at these levels.





an exceptional €91.6 million (US$142.7 million) loss from the sliding shares of Aer Lingus, in which Ryanair has built a 29.2 percent stake.

[mickconn11] 01/7/2008 22:30

The brokers (especially the Irish ones are living in la la land).

Their 'research' says that oil at current prices means that RYA will just about break even but that seems to ignore the oil price effect on the consumer as well as the free money effect that has been printed by the banks which is now not available.

I'm looking at a loss of several hundred million Euros.

Look at the profit in the accounts and then the fuel and oil bill.

Fuel and oil at current prices ... and on a pro rata basis (currently $140 a barrel) will mean the bill for what they put in the tank will exceed one billion euros for this financial year.

Nice market today for intraday trading. Short in London first thing then as usual the lunchtime support kicked in and it was time to go long for the New York open.

Ended the day net short with small shorts in london at 277 and big shorts in New York at the 2900 level.

Closed today at:

RYA............276.25

RYAAY..........2910 .. premium...34%

OIL............141.40.. thats nymex for August.


Just a little note... is the current geopolitical situation priced in ? .

Israel has the firepower to make an attack on Iran. Their airpower is well known but as the different intifadas have proved sheer power can attack but not defend.

Only America has the capability to keep open the Straits of Hormuz. If they attempt it all hell will break loose.

Then it's a case of plucking numbers out of the air.

OIL..200..300..400. I dunno and aint got a clue but the momentum has started and it's dependant on jingo politicians.

DOW at 10,000 could be a distant memory.

Good luck all.

[zimzoot] 01/7/2008 11:36

Rising fuel costs may wipe out airline profits


OPERATING PROFITS at Aer Lingus and Ryanair will be almost wiped out in the current year due to the soaring price of fuel, according to research published yesterday by stockbroker Merrion Landsbanki.

Analyst John Mattimoe forecast that the airlines would end their financial years at just above break-even, based on his assumption that fuel prices would remain at their current level of $1,340 (€861) per tonne.

Mr Mattimoe estimates that Aer Lingus's 2008 fuel bill will be €62 million higher than he previously forecast. This will be "nearly enough to wipe out our previous operating profit forecast of €65 million if all else were unchanged".

He also predicted that Aer Lingus would "stand down" 10 per cent of its capacity in each of the next two winters. Merrion said this would benefit Aer Lingus's short-haul unit revenue.

"The net effect of these assumption-changes results in a revised 2008 operating profit forecast of €11 million," he said.

"Were it not for the partial shelter from fuel hedging previously in place , it is likely that Aer Lingus would be loss-making at the operating level in 2008 on $1,340 per tonne [of] fuel."

If oil prices stay at the current level, Merrion said, Aer Lingus's 2009 fuel bill will be €117 million higher than this year.

[mickconn11] 23/6/2008 21:33

Monday 23rd June 2008.

closing prices.

RYA....................296

RYAAY..................2991 (premium.......silly)

OIL..nymex AUG. .......137 and change.

[mickconn11] 19/6/2008 23:19

Went short at 3220 just before the close.

Closing price tonight was 3241 (premium of 36%)

[keelingr] 19/6/2008 21:48

gonna fly tomorrow....closing price 20th June 2008 = 3.30

[kbass] 19/6/2008 08:29

It's all my fault!

[kbass] 16/6/2008 08:19

In for a shot glass full.

[keelingr] 03/6/2008 13:09

city likes it....oil will fall and ryanair will make a profit this year. just my thoughts.

[gbb483] 03/6/2008 09:04

So Michael isn't going to chase the oil price, and at $130/barrel he'll just break even. The question is, how will the city take it? A lack of a profit won't affect the dividend, he doesn't pay one. It might affect his expansion / fleet upgrade plans (unless his budget includes a 'transfer to reserves' to cover depreciation). It should increase his load factor as flyers shift from more expensive carriers and that might give him an unbudgetted increase in profit (and these'll be the most expensive seats on the flights, given that the cheapest got sold first).

Opened up today - so the city isn't totally unimpressed.

[bmw30csl] 02/6/2008 22:20

i see a new low tomorrow when he comes out and talks of a bloodbath of competition etc.

[shavian] 29/5/2008 06:47

BBC Radio 4's Today programme investment slot just now (06:20) featured City investment guru David Buik. He commented on EZY CEO's share purchase yesterday. Words to the effect of:
"This guy knows what he's doing. The future of airlines lies with the business model of EZY and RYA, which will now come into its own. Like food and drink, people will not give up their two weeks in the sun. People are going to pay their £39 to get to Malaga or wherever - never mind that they might then pay £70 for a taxi to get to their hotel - the annual holiday is not discretionary spending."

With Standard Life also upping their stake in EZY and DB doing the same with RYA, it's looking like time to buy low cost airlines.

Biglosses, if you want to make Bigprofits, look at Socgen's covered warrants, where you can trade calls in RYA. Follow this link to a call option which put on 33.33% just yesterday!



No advice intended DYR etc.

[biglosses] 28/5/2008 22:09

Can RYA shares be bought on the LSE?

[spob] 28/5/2008 06:50

it worked until the brash barstard thought he could predict oil prices

LOL

[bmw30csl] 27/5/2008 22:12

Mick - I think that on average the EZJ fleet is newer and hence more fuel efficient. I guess having American aircraft as RYA do would help with the weak dollar at present.

EZJ trade at a discount to their fleet value while RYA trade at a slight premium I read in a broker note - not sure why or if it is true.

The connections of the Chairman aren't what did it - it was very bankable at the time and he is a good negotiator having spoking to bankers who have met with him.

I was referring to a comment by o'leary that he would hedge at 100/110 going forward so not that he was going out stocking up now but that he was not betting on a return to 80/50 etc anytime soon.

I'm keen to get involved with a 3-5yr view and like the company - just don't think the bottom is in yet. EZJ look cheaper on valuation metrics but I like the leaner unit cost of RYA especially if there are tough times ahead.

[jamesclives] 27/5/2008 22:05

mick, post #205

regards, RYA buying cheap planes around 9/11,

yes, you're right, i read that somewhere recently -
apparently they got a bloody good deal.

[mickconn11] 27/5/2008 22:02

bmw..
my point about ambiguity was based on your post about.. ''ryanair hedge lightly going forward''. I do not think they would go into the market and buy fuel at these levels .

I'm happy to discuss it further if you like but if they do decide to go and buy a few tanker loads it'll smack of desperation.

I also have the view that RYA do indeed have the most efficient fleet in the world. Easyjet run Boeing and Airbus. Ryanair only Boeing. That's an immediate advantage. Tools/ mechanic training/cleaning...etc.

They also bought their fleet of planes cheaper than EASYJET mainly because they had the balls to go and buy them straight after 911 and with their Chairman being one of the best connected men in the world they secured a loan on very generous terms from the IMEX bank.

Closing prices.

RYA................271

RYAAY..............2629 ( premium about 21 or 22%)

CRUDE for July....128.5 ish ...down about 5 dollars.

[jamesclives] 26/5/2008 22:48

Belfast Telegraph:

Aer Lingus can go bust if oil spikes: O'Leary
Monday, May 26, 2008

Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has warned that Aer Lingus could go bust if oil hits $200 a barrel.

Half the airlines would certainly go out of business if oil hit $200 a barrel," said O'Leary. "That could include Aer Lingus. Only the strong airlines would survive and that would be British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair."

[jamesclives] 25/5/2008 18:09

The age of cheap jet travel is over
Daily Mail
25 May 2008

British Airways boss Willie Walsh has warned that the golden age of cheap travel is over as airlines struggle to cope with soaring fuel prices.

He said passengers face a bleak future of higher fares and surcharges to cover the rising cost of oil. Green taxes imposed by the Government will add to the burden.
Mr Walsh said many airlines will go bust or be forced to merge.

He predicted that the death-knell would sound for smaller no-frills budget airlines, led by the likes of Ryanair and easyJet, which have boomed with headline-grabbing cut-price deals as low as £1 plus taxes.

[bmw30csl] 25/5/2008 00:37

Mick their aircraft are not as fuel efficient as that of EZJ.

'don't be ambiguous' - care to elaborate? It was an opinion on a subjective matter until we get confirmation of their intentions.

[mickconn11] 24/5/2008 22:58

rya has the most efficient fleet in the world. Thats their achilles heel.

[mickconn11] 24/5/2008 22:57

bmw30csl.

hedge lightly going forward... no.. and don't be ambiguous.. rya's hedging policy [or lack of it } has cost their shareholders billions of euros in profits. In market cap... well roughly 4 {four} billion.

Their running at a loss right now and their cash pile is running out daily.

Look at the numbers. They don't lie.