Ryanair Share Discussion Threads

[farrugia] 27/3/2020 15:05

how come ryanair hasn't been dropping the extent of easyjet/IAG?

[frazboy] 26/3/2020 10:15

From the Half Year results: "Our fuel bill rose 22% (+€289m) to €1.59bn due to higher prices and 11% traffic growth. Ex-fuel unit costs rose 2%, primarily due to higher staff costs, increased pilot pay and higher than expected crew ratios (as pilot resignations slowed to almost zero), higher maintenance (as older aircraft remain in the fleet due to the Boeing MAX delivery delays), and the consolidation of Lauda costs. This was partially offset by improved punctuality and lower EU261 costs. Our fuel is 90% hedged for FY20 at a rate of $71bbl. Currently 63% of our FY21 fuel is hedged at $61bbl. We continue to negotiate attractive growth deals as airports compete to win Ryanair's traffic growth. Sadly, due to the MAX delivery delays, we will be forced to cut or close a number of loss making bases this winter leading to pilot and cabin crew job losses. We continue to work with our people and their unions to finalise this process."

[frazboy] 26/3/2020 09:20

Makes sense to me spob. Fuel costs to Ryanair were: Https://www.statista.com/statistics/864943/ryanair-fuel-oil-expenses/ So, maybe $3bn for 2020 (the AR will give the detail) of which 90% hedged so they are on the hook for the difference between the hedge and the spot price for unused fuel, I would guess. So say this lasts 12 months with limited usage of aircraft then the cost for fuel to RYA may be around $1bn - lots of guess work here tho.

[spob] 26/3/2020 09:14

I guess airlines can now aggressively hedge future fuel use at much lower oil prices which will at least offset some of the previous hedging losses

[spob] 26/3/2020 09:09

Not using fuel you have contracted to buy at a higher price will lead to financial losses Unless there are hedging contracts available to airlines which are cancelled if you do not take delivery of the fuel I dont know if such contracts are available to airlines I don't think airlines would ever have envisaged this situation of not needing any fuel So I'm guessing such contracts do not exist Please correct me if i am wrong

[farrugia] 26/3/2020 08:57

so if they are going to ground the flights what are they going to do with the fuel they've bought on a hedged basis? are they on the hook to pay out the difference in price since market prices for fuel have gone down rapidly...

[shujja1] 26/3/2020 08:46

This is 100% short

[farrugia] 25/3/2020 09:21

considering how the markets is rallying you would think the worst is behind us ha

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 06:54

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=45743623#firstpost

[pjl4] 18/3/2020 22:31

Even lower now....

[essentialinvestor] 15/3/2020 16:35

SP got down to under 8.50 last summer, before any of this. So it may be an idea to look at what the TA guys are saying atm?, as we are dealing with something unprecedented. Be careful, whatever your view.

[albert3591] 15/3/2020 16:32

What price open tomorrow or a suspension of all airline stocks.

[frazboy] 15/3/2020 11:28

Be interesting to see if we get similar developments in the UK/Ireland: Https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/delta-pilot-union-agree-on-partially-paid-time-off-as-coronavirus-forces-cuts.html As Ryanair has been a pretty fractious employee I doubt it will be quite so simple to negotiate. Maybe a combination of lay offs and staff on a partial pay? Some talk of aircraft being used for freight transport - not sure how realistic that is. Hedges: Ryanair will be in the hook for the difference between the spot price and the hedge price for unused fuel, I would guess?

[andycapp1] 15/3/2020 08:35

1NHS you need help. Take some pills.

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 23:52

Thanks. I thought they owed a good proportion and the Max situation has now arguably turned in to a benefit, delaying a large capital outlay.

[dotsie] 14/3/2020 23:43

Own pretty much all their fleet now so very few planes still on lease. Have hedged 90% of their fuel though so not sure how that will play out if they don't need to buy that fuel now given the grounding?

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 21:29

QP, they don't lease their entire fleet, at least that's my understanding. Details would be in the accounts.

[loganair] 14/3/2020 21:26

Virgin Atlantic boss Peter Norris urges Boris Johnson to sanction £7.5bn airline bailout. Peter Norris, the chairman of Virgin Atlantic Airways' majority shareholder, Virgin Group, will write to the prime minister on Monday to warn that the sector needs immediate financial aid to survive. The bailout request will come ahead of what could prove to be the bloodiest week in British aviation history, with British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, easyJet and Ryanair all expected to announce mass groundings of aircraft and potentially huge redundancies.

[quepassa] 14/3/2020 21:23

Thanks . Appreciated. So an average of some 66 monthly instalments still to pay on a very large and expensive fleet to fund then!! 3 or 4 months of limited revenues would nonetheless make a real dent in their cash pile.

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 21:12

5.5 years is the average fleet age.

[quepassa] 14/3/2020 21:05

i haven't checked but my guess is that, as they have such a very young fleet, the average leases would likely have many, many more years to run. if you happen know the facts on the maturity profile of their lease portfolio, could you kindly share the details. - Thanks. QP

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 20:40

A lot depends on how long this lasts.