Ryanair Share Discussion Threads

[mickconn11] 28/7/2005 19:01

techmark. It's worth having a look at the ADRs on the Nasdaq.

[techmark] 21/7/2005 16:22

mickconn11,

Trading it in Euro's.

I suspose a weaker euro against the pound may be helpful to Ryanair, but I still think the euro/dollar rate and the price of oil will have a greater impact.

[mickconn11] 18/7/2005 18:04

techmark.. good point about currency.
The media seems to have a one eyed opinion towards negatives and positives on currency exposure. Alot of comments in the press about how some big FTSE companies will benefit from the stronger dollar improving their earnings in Sterling, which is correct, but they're silent on the fact that oil at $60.oo and the Euro/ Sterling rate against the Dollar means the oil price is much higher than it was a few months ago.
Are you trading this in Europe or the US because there is another currency factor in play.

[techmark] 16/7/2005 08:37

Mickconn11 & Spob,

Thanks for the info.

Although they have hedged 75% of their winter oil at $47 I wonder if they hedged the currency risk. Last December the euro was 1.36 to the dollar, it's currently 1.20. Unless the currency risk is hedge as well, it's still possible for their oil costs to rise in euros despite the hedge.

$47 at 1.36 = €34.55 a barrel
$47 at 1.20 = €39.16 a barrel

It's worth bearing that in mind for the unhedged summer period as well, oil rising and a falling euro cannot be good news for Ryanair.

[mickconn11] 15/7/2005 17:40

spob.
Similar article in yesterdays FT but the price is going up in the US.
Maybe they don't read it over there. Once I've loaded up with shorts I might post them a copy.
Does anyone know if you can still post on the really slow surface mail or should I just leave the stamps off and let the paper get lost for a few weeks before they receive it.

techmark. more about oil/fuel costs. They've hedged for winter at $47 Brent but buying on the open market at the moment. The best oil analysts and economists in the world have been caught out with the price so you can't blame Ryanair for getting it wrong but one thing the market fails to appreciate is that with their cost base being the lowest in the world the high oil price probably eats into margins more than any other airline.

Anyway at the moment I think it's going higher. The bulls look like they want to test $50.oo on the Nasdaq and that will probably cause more short closing and possibly a breakout of $50.oo but in my opinion if that happens it will be a false breakout and then come back down.

We'll see but I'm short and adding slowly but it's hard work at the moment.

[mickconn11] 14/7/2005 17:59

Today's article in the FT could have been a thinly veiled profit warning as I think yields were suffering before the events of last week. Lots of offers in the papers and on their website. All staff apart from Dublin pilots recently received a 3% pay rise. They're totally unhedged on fuel for the crucial summer season and Easyjet have recently gone head to head with them on some of the Irish routes.
I also reckon the consumer slowdown must be impacting on them. Even if you fly somewhere for 40 or 50 quid you need a couple of hundred for spending money.
Despite all this the bulls are bossing the price and it looks very expensive to me.
I trade it on the Nasdaq and try and catch the swings, going short and then buying back on the dips and then reopening shorts thereby improving my average short entry point. That's easier said than done but on the whole it works.
On the Nasdaq though it's very Wild West and the price can run up 80 or 90 points in minutes so you have to be careful. There is also the unusual premium that they pay over there. As I write it's trading about 20% higher than the London closing price.
Cheers. Mick.

[techmark] 14/7/2005 08:20

Mickconn11,

Too long. I started shorting the shares in 2003 when the share price was at a similar level to today. I did take some profit when the shares slumped in 2004, but apart from that I remain short.

Unless the market is forecasting a big slump in oil prices I really can't see the attraction of the shares at these levels. In fact it wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a profit warning in post.

[mickconn11] 13/7/2005 19:56

techmark.
Ryan Air bulls are bossing it at the moment. The oil price is very bad for them but the market in it's wisdom chooses to ignore this. There's a bit more as well.

How long have you been following Ryan Air.?

[techmark] 13/7/2005 08:58

Last summer the oil price in euro's was roughly €32 a barrel. Currently the oil price is around €50 a barrel. I would be grateful if somebody could explain how this is bullish for Ryanair, given they are unhedged for the summer period. That's one hell of an increase.

Looking back at last summer's results I see the company expected oil prices to fall !

[cat100] 07/6/2005 18:05

$47 is a very good price IMOP for next winter........

[cat100] 07/6/2005 18:03

Holding some not a big amount. Have done well with RYA but not trading now. Will buy back if I see a big pull back from here . Could be waiting quite a while though...........

[mickconn11] 06/6/2005 20:31

cat100. still playing ???

[mickconn11] 31/5/2005 16:54

Unhedged for summer. 75% for winter at $47 Brent.

Place your bets.

[mickconn11] 31/5/2005 15:27

Reopening shorts closed from Friday.

[cat100] 31/5/2005 10:56

Mick hope you got rid of that short.......

[mickconn11] 27/5/2005 20:08

Short on RYA but lightening up and buying back alot in the US this evening.

From experience RYA bulls are not to be played with on results day.

[cat100] 27/5/2005 14:10

Buffet loses $310 Million on anti-dollar bet
^


Posted on 05/01/2005 5:33:43 PM PDT by soccer_linux_mozilla


Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.


Berkshire also plans to announce an insurance acquisition of ``a little less than $1 billion'' in the next few weeks and increased first-quarter profit from operations by about $400 million before taxes, Buffett said today at the company's annual meeting of shareholders in Omaha, Nebraska. The increase suggests profit rose 24 percent from a year earlier.


Buffett, who's been betting against the dollar since 2002, said the company kept slightly more than $21 billion in forward currency forward contracts through the first quarter even as the dollar rose 4 percent against foreign currencies. Buffett said he'd buy more foreign currency forward contracts if it weren't for the skepticism of Vice Chairman Charles Munger.


``Charlie is less enthusiastic about our foreign currency position than I am,'' Buffett told thousands of shareholders and admirers in an arena more frequently used for rock concerts. ``I might have somewhat more if I didn't know I'd have him sitting next to me here next year.''


Buffett, 74, is making the dollar wager on concern that widening U.S. trade and budget deficits will erode its value. The New York Board of Trade's Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, fell 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter, leading to a $1.63 billion gain for Berkshire. Forward contracts are agreements to purchase foreign currencies on a future date at the current price.

He is down $310m I am up $19k Some difference ...........

[cat100] 27/5/2005 10:02

$ and oil would be a concern . repayments on all those planes . My view is parity between $ and euro in the next year or so. I have a big exposure to the $ from around the 1.31 ish mark and doing v. well at the moment. Was worried when Buffit bet against the $ but what does he know. Shag all if you ask me I think he is losing it. Not as young as he was. I think he has even admitted his mistake . Ryanair are tops when it comes to airlines so whatever happens they will stay on top of the heap .......

[cat100] 27/5/2005 09:53

Ryanair (Buy, Current Price e6.15)
Star Trek
Captains Log: star date 270505. The ship is tense. As we prepare to enter the galaxy Resultisfinals the crew are nervous. Dr McCoy has organised six search teams to shuttle into alien territory "Captain, I've given them extra strong phasers for this one". He's had to deal with some of our own crew too. A number of the engineers have become delirious and think they run the ship. A quick dose of turbo-option injections should sort that out. This mission takes us into contact with the Klingons again. The Hedgeisfundis people who live on the moon Shorttermis are the toughest. Always looking to pick a fight. Spock has spent the week preparing his greetings "we come with logic, only lowest costs matter" "fares plus seats minus frills equal great wealth" "People from the star system Corkus have clear minds and" Steady on Spock. Chief Engineer Scotty is nervous. He has worked hard firing up the propulsion engines since our last docking in March. "Och Captain, the plasma generator is humming, and earnings revolutions are tip-top. Just avoid those Oilcrude asteriods and we'll be fine"" Ah, yes, I'm looking forward to this one. Just hope those dodgy navigators Davius and Morganstatus have got the Transporter room working. OK Mister Zulu, warp factor eight. Uhuru, are you planning to wear that mini-skirt on the planet? And what exactly does that thing sticking out of your ear do? Never mind, its time to boldly go.


Not holding in trading acc. Do have some exposure in long term acc.

[superdealer] 26/5/2005 16:41

mickconn11 - I have traded it in the past but don't hold any shares or spread positions currently. I don't know how much higher it has to go. Ryanair's fares are still much lower than Easyjet's (although for some reason Ryanair charges higher taxes and extras on the same routes) so RYA does have the option to increase the fares without the customer noticing too much.

[techmark] 26/5/2005 07:24

Double whammy for this one - Stronger oil, weaker Euro.

[mickconn11] 20/5/2005 22:24

superdealer. do you trade this one.

[superdealer] 20/5/2005 12:10

Share price looking strong.

[mickconn11] 15/5/2005 23:11

Oil now below $50 but dollar strong.