Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 17/6/2011 07:48

they're in discussions for Juvidex

It's unclear whether RNVO will sell the products off,

OR will outlicense (partner) and retain a stake



For example, shareholders could be given £30m and have the company mothballed,
but with a stake in 3-4 products, any milestone payments, the ultimate sale of the products, or royalties, would still come to shareholders
If I was an inst, that's what I'd want.
The partnered products would be pure upside and maintaining some form of public/private vehicle would ensure shareholders got maximum value from the products over time.

Selling them is neater, but may not bring full value.
Certainly I expect the products to remain with shareholders until the trial results come in. That'll be when we find out how big the bonus will be!

This should now be valued at over £30-33m, since there's now next to no risk to that cash.

The question is - how much higher?

[smith99] 17/6/2011 07:46

I get the cash to 16.8 - 17.0p so to sell at any price above 16p makes perfect sense. Wonder how long the share price will stay below 14 ? Not long I imagine. Easy 15% to be made there, no risk.

[holly_dog] 17/6/2011 07:36

As you say doc totally makes sense with l&g now and AIM

[holly_dog] 17/6/2011 07:35

Yes agreed. Only thing they have not mentioned is whether there is value in other IP and if they can sell that on (e.g. Juvidex)

I think this should b good for short term price as if they plan to distribute cash in shorter term should go to 17p..then potentially increase with positive results.

I would now plan to sell if we get close to 17p and buy back when results are coming up.

[the_doctor] 17/6/2011 07:25

costs minimised and cash as expected - good

I like the plans to distribute or use cash. It would seem pointless sitting on it.
Distributing would seem more efficient than buybacks, since it is guaranteed to evenly go to shareholders at the right price

Glad to see a shareholder go on the board

Delisting from the full list to AIM makes sense and no issue for most
I suspect this is why L&G sold
This is exactly why they had to sell AKT I think
Presumably they were told about it in advance?

The end result IMO would be RNVO with little more than the £1m cash and shareholders returned the rest.

IF positive results, and after products sold, shareholders would get further cash.


The best possible plan for full realisation of max value IMO.

[the_doctor] 16/6/2011 14:40

'That has to have gone to an institution'

or various PIs!?

L&G apparently had to sell AKT due to it falling out of some index they were tracking. May not be true and it would depend on what RNVO is in, but that could be why they sold. ie. not always intended per se, but could be required under the terms of a fund.

[holly_dog] 16/6/2011 14:23

Legal & General: -7.6m

They last were active in March 2010 (I only looked at RNS' from June - June)

Makes sense...now will we see a holding for an increase in shares? That has to have gone to an institution

[holly_dog] 16/6/2011 13:36

I think Juvidex could raise at least £5m - they expected to generate low single digit million royalties p.a. (although not sure what effect negative Juvista has on Juvidex), so if the p.a. value is low single digit £m a full sale should be worth in the region of £5m

Buys (albeit v.low vol) just coming through at 13.75, maybe suggests seller is gone?

[the_doctor] 16/6/2011 11:43

Juvidex wont raise much.
I'm not sure the other products would yet, which is why I think RNVO will mothball and wait for trial results.
That'll take time and may explain our seller?

[cumnor] 16/6/2011 11:37

Given the carnage in small caps in particular I think Rnvo's value, as cash rich potential predator, increases by the day and makes it more attractive by the day.

[holly_dog] 16/6/2011 11:32

Given how these processes work and there is always a leak, if we get a surge in share price prob suggests news is imminent

[the_doctor] 16/6/2011 10:16

They're aiming to sell Juvidex whatever and it would make sense to complete that, if possible, before announcing the strategy.

It would also make sense to thoroughly check any potential company acquirers before selling Juvidex. The Juvidex party may been interested in taking the whole lot.

[holly_dog] 16/6/2011 09:58

RA capital I think sold into Gartmore, they had about 13.4m shares pre announcement, and Gartmore bought 21.4m so that must have been a big chunk of their increase.

I think the fact we have had no announcement immediately after the end of closed period suggests there is negotiation on a deal. If they just planned to sit back and wait for the trial results later this year and next year they would have announced that as there would be nothing holding them up.

They said in investor call they would update in beginning of June, which was confirmed by CFO. So that tells me they are trying to get something done of note

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 17:37

just odd that those in the first camp wouldnt have sold before when Gartmore was actively buying?

however, we have highlighted a few reasons why that might be.

the buyer was picking them off the offer at 13.5
and also at 13.5 on the offer when sold to by sellers
I guess it wouldnt matter which way around that's been!

is it possible that RNVO are ready to announce but have been advised to hold off until the seller is done??

[holly_dog] 15/6/2011 16:52

I think of the large investors you have two distinct camps, those that bought for the news last year, and those that are interested in it as a distressed asset

JP, UBS and RA Capital were the large buyers anticipating positive P3, and I think it's one of these that are selling down for whatever reason (maybe the guy who took out the position was booted and they are closing down the position with someone new - one of the large holders in my company recently dumped just because he was new and had a different strategy irrespective of prospects)

Second camp of Kestrel and Gartmore have bought in while distressed and both recently so doubt their investment case would have changed that much since. I suspect Kestrel have been adding, or a new fund as Gartmore have too much and would trigger a takeover offer.

According to sharepirce.co.uk, every single trade today was at 13.5p...not sure what that means but there is clearly a buyer and a seller with an agreement at this price

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 16:39

well, it's possible that a manager picked them up or held onto them on the basis of a hoped takeover/quick asset sale, but if they thought it'd now be a year plus to wait, maybe they gave up to invest elsewhere.
similarly, with the markets plunging, they may have had little option?

Who knows! :o)

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 16:20

I struggle to see why anyone would stack the offer like that?

IMO it's possible that there's one/more main sellers and someone with knowledge of what they're doing, is piggy-backing down shorts.
If so, some of the stacked orders might instead be dummies, aimed at encouraging sellers/discouraging buyers against the aims of the genuine seller?
At the same time, it could even be the buyer holding it down for a low price?

[holly_dog] 15/6/2011 14:32

I would prefer second option doctor - make it happen

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 11:30

I think the way forward will be announced as this:

Spending to be cut down to a bare minimum
No company sale (yet)
Juvidex to be sold near-term
pre-clinical products to be sold when they can

Adaprev sold off late 2011 onwards if results are good
Prevascar sold off mid-2012 onwards if results are good

I dont see a company sale yet on the basis that somebody is unlikely to pay a decent price for Adaprev or Prevascar yet - BUT they could still try a bid. Depends what Gartmore wants really

Waiting for trial results is a low risk option with only upside

An alternative is for a merger now
Company X gets cash and the products
RNVO shareholders get a small premium incentive and full upside if Adaprev or Prevascar perform later...

[holly_dog] 15/6/2011 11:20

Doctor - since the 2nd of June, when price started to fall, 10.7m shares (+c.1m today), so certainly coming close to hitting their holdings.

I would be surprised if it was Gartmore, as they got involved in the low 20s in 09/10 (around when takeover offer came in) and then sold on way up, only to buy again after black Friday. For me this suggests they view the share differently and may be involved in any M&A.

A holding RNS must be due soon given the recent volume

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 10:49

Well, the 13.5 offers taken out, leaving 45k at 13.75
The 111k was bought, plus a load more totalling 540k

Good to see active buying off the offer, rather than all dumping

Is THAT the end of our seller(s)?