Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[daytraders] 10/6/2011 16:31

well i just bought 35,596 at 13.44p, im happy with that, a few big buys near close it seems also.

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 15:55

Really strange. Only thing can think is that someone just wants the cash now and unwinding a position, markets looking shaky still etc

Seems short-sighted but I guess you have to flip it on it's head and say someone clearly thinks there is value at this price and has bought all the sells in the last week

[daytraders] 10/6/2011 15:49

massive big sells today, well only selling today actually, why sale at this price thou if there get at least i think 17p in cash per share if wound up ? a easy 25% gain at worst maybe, take me 10 odd years to get that interest in a building society :)

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 13:35

the_doctor - no question that it is 90 days rather than 90 working days and an announcement should come soon.

I sent this to David Blain
'I was wondering if you could provide any guidance on the date from which the consultation period finishes, thereby allowing you to provide investors with an update? I had estimated that given you announced the consultation period on the 3rd of March, 90 days from that equates to the 1st of June, is this correct? If so would it be fair to say an update should be imminent?'

'In our interim results announced on 26 May 2011 we confirmed that we will update shareholders with our plans following the completion of the statutory consultation period. We also said that the consultation period ends in early June. So you are right to expect an announcement soon.

We have not been specific on the date of the update but it will be issued in due course. Sorry I can't be more help.'

I think it seems they may drag out other trials, but could still sell Juvidex and other IP to generate some value, as well as value of listed vehicle and cash. As you say, very low risk at this price

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 13:13

'Ferguson might want to see out trials'

IMO he might want to simply if pre-data nobody is willing to pay much, but post-data, IF things go well, they could generate a great return.

IF results are no good, then they can just close up and distribute the cash at around this level

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 13:05

, I said 'with the cash buffer'

I would not have said it was daft to have stops before

I consider it daft now because this is illiquid and anyone could spike it down.

IMO there's no need for stops because the company is now low risk

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 13:02

holly - in that case, the risk-reward with those products is very good

the 90 day consultation period started on 3rd March
So... that must now have finished, unless it means 90 working days? That would mean 1 month's time

At present, RNVO is not seeking to sell Prevascar or Adaprev until H1 2012
My expectation is that they'll sit it out (not a long time).
That could have produced sellers and there's a lack of buyers.

Of course, given the valuation, an offer could well come in?

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 12:51

unless you're leveraged!

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 12:44

'could take out a lot of stops'

with the cash buffer, I think people would be daft to have stops

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 12:27

doctor - they have said would only be £1m to bring those trials to conclusion and given they rapidly shut up shop I get the impression they're really trying to save every penny for shareholders


With $54M left, Renovo limps toward the end.(Thursday, June 2)
336 words
6 June 2011
BioWorld Week
BIOK
3
Volume 19; Issue 23
English
Copyright 2011 Gale Group. All rights reserved.

As the process of winding down the company continues, Renovo plc's CEO, Mark Ferguson, estimated there will be $54.3 million left in the coffers once the process is complete, and said the company has decided to see ongoing clinical trials through to a conclusion. That move will increase the potential value to be extracted from the assets of Manchester, UK-based Renovo, as it looks for a buyer following the catastrophic failure of its lead wound-healing product Juvista. A 90-day consultation with staff, aimed at shedding more than 100 of its 110 employees, is drawing to a close. "We are putting Renovo in a prime position to be sold," Ferguson said. "We are reducing all expenditure and ending leases and other commitments." If all staff are made redundant this month and all closure costs are settled other than the ongoing clinical trials, Renovo will have approximately £33 million cash at June 30.

The company will be reduced to a stock market listing, cash in hand and its remaining clinical programs. "These could be sold together or separately, and that is a very active process," Ferguson said. The two ongoing programs will cost £1 million to complete, and if necessary the work will be outsourced, Ferguson noted. The first of those, Adaprev, for the reduction of tendon adhesions, is being developed in Europe as a medical device. The second product is Prevascar. Renovo previously reported statistically significant Phase II efficacy data in improving the appearance of scarring. Recently it said a planned interim analysis of a further proof-of-concept study involving 1 cm skin incisions in volunteers of African ancestral group origin showed a statistically significant improvement in scar width (p = 0.03) of about 12 percent one month post-wounding. As a result, the company decided to let the trial run on to its planned conclusion at 12 months, in the first half of 2012.

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 12:23

Hard to say - if they're going to wind the company up, then it's good value probably

If they're going to spend a chunk of cash waiting for ongoing trials over the next 12-18 months, then it could drop a bit lower.
How much could they spend in that period?

Low risk now though IMO

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 12:09

They (gartmore) have such a large position would be difficult to shift. But in any case the volumes that have gone through would make you think a holding RNS should arrive shortly

I really thought it would drift between 15p - 17p to reflect the confirmed 17p in cash they will have at a minimum. Fair enough they might not get loads for IP/listed vehicle/tax credit but there is £33m of confirmed cold hard cash

Joe - when emailed Blain he said should be announcing shortly, it's gotta be Monday

I'm maxed out but someone is getting this at a steal

[cumnor] 10/6/2011 12:06

When news imminent mm tactic is to drop price just before as each day you always have a few leveraged Pis watching rns's and getting more impatient they panic and sell as the mms drop price. easy way for mms to gather stock.

[the_doctor] 10/6/2011 11:53

'wonder if it's gartmore dumping?'

I doubt it.
IMO Gartmore bought with a view to reversing something else in.
So, wouldnt sell unless that fell through

Still, while there 'could' be upside, I tend to think RNVO wont get much for its products - you never know though.

[joeblogg2] 10/6/2011 11:42

I bought in at 15.25 thinking this would nice and safe rather than cash for my brother's ISA with 17p minimum :( Not sure if anyone can chase up the BOD to find what is going on? thks!!

[holly_dog] 10/6/2011 11:33

This is getting really frustrating...wonder if it's gartmore dumping?

[holly_dog] 09/6/2011 16:31

doctor - i think they will do whatever will generate maximum value. they said it would cost c.£1m to bring those trials to result using the outsourced model they proposed.

what i don't know is if there is a way to structure a deal where shareholders can get the benefit of those down the line but cash in most of the chips now...

perhaps through a reverse takeover, where the acquiror retains the IP of those two products, with RNVO shareholders getting some shares in new vehicle, and then if they are successful company would sell so they get the second bit of upside?

sounds very convoluted..

[holly_dog] 09/6/2011 15:30

GS - I did the same somewhat, cost me a few quid but hey saved me a ton no way could have predicted was a leak.

My maths said that the consultation period lasts for 90 days, and was announced on the 3/3/11, suggesting it was finished on the 1/6/11 which was confirmed by Blain. Hopefully they will announce that the company/products have been sold rather than up for sale, investor call suggests that they have been active in discussions with acquirors so hopefully there is just the usual last minute wrangling. I'm hoping Monday we hear something. 2.3m shares have changed hands since results on the 26th, someone has built up a position since wonder if we will get any more holding RNS'

supern - will check them out sounds v.interesting

[supernumerary] 09/6/2011 12:45

holly_dog - try Oncolytics Biotech. Listed on Nasdaq and Toronto, so I'm not sure about spreadbetting. Lots of info on the company site: and there's a quiet board here and a couple of busy boards on Yahoo. If the lung cancer survival curves (to be released early July) match current clinical benefit figures, there should be a reasonable breakout followed by good growth to approval in 2013. Currently in Phase 3 for head and neck cancer, with interim results due out late this year or early next.

[the_doctor] 09/6/2011 10:50

'In all seriousness, this has lost so much value I do feel it is very much derisked now'

yes, low risk, although I think it's possible that RNVO will spend through much of the cash waiting for H2 2011 and H1 2012 results that could disappoint.

When does the consultation period end, I forget?
I'd imagine that MF will then say the company/its products are up for sale