Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[holly_dog] 16/5/2011 18:38

It closed up to 16p at the auction but as said vol was pretty low. Price action recently suggests someone is trying to accumulate very subtlely without pushing up price.

8 days to go until news (IMO)..to keep things interesting why not throw out potential takeover price.

I reckon 30p

[argylerich] 16/5/2011 17:49

up on a buy of 301 shares? not exactly a large dose of coffee!
Strangely though, while here shows virtually all sells, the Spread/CFD market showed an uptick today :/

[hollerich1] 16/5/2011 17:39

someone most have smelled the coffee, it closed up 16p today.

[holly_dog] 13/5/2011 14:09

well yes. they don't accept an offer.

Gartmore has an average price of probably about 20p at this stage (they built up their stake in the 20s before the rise from Sept 10 and topped up now). So given they have just under 29%, why would they accept giving away money they own at a discounted rate to a third party when they and all the other shareholders, including the board who also own about 10 - 15% can just say no. when the offer came in 2010 the shareholders were quite aligned to them about ensuring value is realised and not selling out, no shareholders would win if an offer was made at this price so I can't see why any would accept

You would expect at a minimum shareholders would not accept less than 24p, which is broadly 44m value. That doesn't include control premium/value of listed vehicle, or any value to IP, offset by winding down costs.

Got the dates wrong, its the 26th May for results not 31st so we'll find out soon enough

[hollerich1] 13/5/2011 14:03

ooh sorry doc, now i got yeah.., but one more question doc, i hope the company won't declare a loss on the 26th (i mean intereme statement), what is your or anyoneelse take on this.

[the_doctor] 13/5/2011 13:53

hollerich, I didnt say it was bad


'why would shareholders accept giving away their own cash?'

do they have much other option?

[hollerich1] 13/5/2011 13:20

why is gartmore stocking this up, if it that bad, and what happens to the 44million

[holly_dog] 13/5/2011 13:18

GS - will take a look sounds right up my street

Still like FDI and CGH,have fantastic assets and are funded but requires patience. Generally a bit bearish at present but looking out for some binary stocks to keep me interested in the meantime. This is a great little play imo and seems to be off the radar..will be interesting to see if it rallies coming up to 31st

[holly_dog] 13/5/2011 12:21

Agree with reverse takeover as a likely potential outcome but don't agree that would not be at premium to current share price as they are below cash,why would shareholders accept giving away their own cash? Trial data will influence how much ip is valued at but core valuation case is 44m cash (-some winding down) vs 28m at present

[the_doctor] 13/5/2011 09:22

I'm not expecting any takeover per se, but a reversing in of another company.

Given this will be done more for the benefit of the reversing company, it perhaps wont be at any premium for RNVO holders from the current price.
That depends on pending/coming trial data

The performance from then on will depend on how the merged co. fares.

[holly_dog] 11/5/2011 11:00

Will definitely be putting on a few extra quid the week of our interims, makes perfect sense as a deal timetable that we get an announcement then

[holly_dog] 11/5/2011 10:14

Yes same for me, I completely agree with your logic, the bigger FTSE companies will just be dragged down with the market, but the punts even in bad times can come good if the news expected materialises.

Would be keen to hear more, are you expecting news on either of those two soon?

Despite what happened here trying to seek out more opportunities for 'binary' companies in similar positions to renovo where there was big news due, so price gets bid up in anticipation/speculation, and you can sell some on the bidding up pre-news holding out some for if it comes off

[cumnor] 10/5/2011 12:35

No one is in this for Prevascar imo. It's cash, potential bid or perhaps merger/reverse to benefit from listing. imo

[holly_dog] 10/5/2011 12:20

- exactly the same as you. Have been buying back over the last month, in anticipation of an announcement at interims for some sort of M&A, which should be valued at >25p.

Only potential risk is Prevascar being released beforehand and being negative, but I think anyone buying this is for cash so hopefully shouldn't impact.

You hold anything interesting at the moment? I have reduced most exposure as think we may be coming to end of cycle and will be choppy waters, although looking to add new holdings where there is great value

[amt] 09/5/2011 07:15

March 2010. A bit slow to get their numbers out LOL

[holly_dog] 08/5/2011 19:36

very interesting, there's been about enough time for someone to do some due diligence since black Friday. From Kestrel website

Kestrel is a fund management company that capitalises on years of underinvestment in quoted smaller companies, caused by mainstream investors allocating capital to larger and more liquid assets

One of our core investment principles is to constructively engage with the management of our investee companies on a regular and pro-active basis. We believe that such a dialogue is essential in aligning interests and in bringing together the broad range of skill sets needed to refine corporate strategy and assist companies achieve their potential. We aim to create and release value in our investee companies over the medium to long term through partnership and collaboration.

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All very positive if there are two buyers. Should hear something material on the 26th I suspect, looking for a 30p takeout

[hollerich1] 08/5/2011 16:56

cumnor- i thought as much, there something on the horizions, don't think gartmore will be that stupid to keep adding more, i am thinking of adding more myself before the interim reports and the 3 month consultation which ends in june, that was announced when the stage iii test failed 2 months ago, i believe this 2 dates are key to the insight of the furture of this company.

[cumnor] 06/5/2011 08:03

Are these new guys building up a small stake as well. Few reasonable size stakes now along with mgmt make it interesting. After shutting bulk of ops and moving away from bio it will have a fair whack of cash with it's listing which will make it a decent prospect, esp with aggresive stakeholders looking for a good return. Cash is King in this enviroment of collapsing markets and commodity prices so the relative value of RNVO, and it's ability to pick up some nice little /mineral/o@g producer/explorer for zilch improves with each passing day. Even if the cash pile shrinks a bit it's buying power is also improving. imo dyor

[argylerich] 18/4/2011 15:50

very few AT's on the buy side today, Gartmore reached their limit?

[bill182] 14/4/2011 16:44

Interesting that the share price was market up to 16p at the close. Tomorrow could be a blue day, or maybe not!

[argylerich] 14/4/2011 16:37

It seems that Gartmore are happy to hoover up slowly, so I wouldn't be expecting things to happen too soon.

[holly_dog] 14/4/2011 16:25

Would like to see more vol