Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 14:41

GS - maybe I've interpreted wrong but according to interim results and conf call they will announce as soon as statutory consulting period is up. They announced on 3/3/11 and 90 days gets you to 1st June, i.e. next Wednesday.

He says on the call it will be early June/very soon so I think it should be up pretty quick?

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 13:23

Can anyone get their hands on that note? Would be keen to see why they cut target

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 13:01

Oh - Seaenergy. Was a bit of a sore spot in the end. Bought it at 40p and went as high as 80p but then they didn't get funding so they had to put the asset up for sale, I got out at 28p or so. Now seems they might get a good price for the asset so it's back on the up.

I have a soft spot for rollercoaster shares

[daytraders] 26/5/2011 12:59

Panmure Gordon Buy 15.25p old target 30.00p new target 22.00p Reiteration

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 12:05

The way they talk about it sounds like they pretty much have a deal and just have to wait for statutory period to end. Also his comment at the start that we have fully followed our duties makes me think they have got a good price

completely IMO

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 12:02

GS - sorry not clear, renovo is only holding as shouldn't be affected by broader markets and as said by all it is just financial analysis and basic valuations. Getting that £33m number was the major uncertainty so great to have that come in as expected.

I'm no tax expert but if grahamg analysis is correct plus control/plc value plus some IP investment case really starting to look good with very limited downside at this point

Ppl should listen to investor presentation which is now on website, really short (less than 9 mins). M&A soundbite from 6.35 (the guy asking the question is a bit bumbly!)

[hollerich1] 26/5/2011 11:36

ooh g-sounds have now join the league of believers

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 10:39

90 days from announcement of restructuring on 3/3/11 is 1/6/11.

Not long now..

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 09:42

thats it.

hope that quote gets out to financial press on M&A

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 09:41

M&A question -

'we are considering all options including M&A and have done that in period and will continue to do that, and putting us in prime position to be sold. reducing all expenditure, capital commitments to leases. continuing trials where we have value:
public listing
cash
programme (IP)

all could be sold together or separately

very active process, exploring all opportunities to add value for shareholders.'

cracking

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 09:38

Not a lot
- Consultation period means they can't give any detail of what is going to happen, will be announced in early June

Now on Q&A

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 09:31

Will post things of note as they come up - conf call just starting.

Someone soaking up a load of sells

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 09:21

Hey mate - yes I have been following and been meaning to post to you, but that board is more manic then ever you can't get a word in edgeways

Flogging the dead horse here but today's announcement puts it on course to deliver some value with few uncertainties now.

I'll pop in to our old friend - if you can give me a quick low-down would be much appreciated

[reesyheli] 26/5/2011 09:02

Morning all

Not been this way for a while .. Holly one of your old haunts might be worth a visit sooner rather than later.

Hope all this works out for you guys

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 08:55

I sold all my equities in early March just as Egypt was kicking off and this is my only holding. There are some companies I really like, but I think we are in the middle of a broader, decent sized correction as it appears both developing and developed are moving down from cyclical peaks, earnings are peaking and Greece is going to have to default which will probably be the catalyst.

This is pure financial analysis so I don't think at risk from broader market. I don't think market more broadly has woken up to it. Maybe there will be a few more broker notes put out today to spike interest.

As an aside this Lex article is right on the money. If expecations exceed reality we get corrections. Operating margins forecast to exceed best of whole boom when we have commodity prices where we are and high competition and pricing to win share spells trouble
---------------------------------
US earnings expectations

Published: May 24 2011 09:41 | Last updated: May 24 2011 15:38

Introductory corporate finance textbooks describe the role of chief financial officer as little more than a glorified bookkeeper. For today's publicly listed companies though the job rivals that of CEO in visibility and complexity. Perception being reality in the stock market, the cardinal rule for success is to underpromise and overdeliver to the financial community. This maxim, combined with the pliancy of analysts, virtually assures that more companies exceed expectations than lag them each quarter in an economic expansion.

It happened again this earnings season, but barely. Less than 60 per cent of US companies "beat" through last week according to Bespoke Investment Group, the worst showing since the awful final quarter of 2008. What is more, fewer than 8 per cent of companies "guided" analyst consensus higher, the least in the current bull market.

If this is corporate America's way of giving analysts a hint of a slowdown then they are not taking it. Nearly every week since the start of the year has seen an increase in bottom-up full-year consensus estimates for the S&P 500 earnings for a cumulative increase of 4 per cent according to Brown Brothers Harriman. If history is any guide, however, some caution is warranted. The past quarter saw the highest quarterly earnings since they peaked in the first quarter of 2007, yet a further 16 per cent growth is seen this year and 13 per cent next year. Operating margins are forecast to exceed the best levels of the last decade's boom years for many industries.

One of the few certainties in investing is that profits eventually revert to the mean. The fact that thousands of myopic analysts routinely miss the turning points shows the perils of groupthink and how much CFOs' cautiousness is discounted late in a bull market. Prepare for more of them to underdeliver.

[cumnor] 26/5/2011 08:27

Any sharp but short dips (mms likely to try and pick stock up as bulk now tightly held for cash) and I will put more of my 'safe' cash on deposit in here as June July will see rerating imo. The simple fact is even our best blue chips are anything but safe in the present enviroment and frankly only very cash rich stocks are worth investing in, given the fact neither countries or big banks are immune from going under. Not a time for debt strapped assets. imo

[cumnor] 26/5/2011 08:22

Would be appreciated Holly. These guys, with the big holders, already know exactly what they want to do but won't disclose anything. But their general tone might be useful pointer.

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 08:17

Will be listening to conf call at 930 myself, analyst questions should be interesting and price action subsequently.

I'll post key messages

[cumnor] 26/5/2011 08:13

Hedger, no one in here for trading. Anyone in now is in for cash, IP, merger, tax losses (graham) and potential from having serious funds on board who don't sit on their hunches. Cash etc far more than I (post 8405)or city expected and wind up could'nt be going better so costs will be practically nil. Expect major deals on this soon with big rerating as prof wont be down for long and will be anxious to recover his reputation which he will do with the help of the large investors. invest in LLoyds or put your cash in RBS if you wan't a 'safe' investment. Chances are you might lose the lot in 12 months. For me I think i'll stick with RNVO whose relative value increases the more turmoil there is in the markets. Simple play. imo dyor

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 08:06

Disagree - if we are currently at £28m and we know there will be £33m end of June after all redundancy costs it would be very strange not to go up after that uncertainty is removed.

I dont think this is like a normal traded aim stock this is just financial crunching at this stage for the next two weeks

Really good shout on that tax benefit grahamg

[hedger123] 26/5/2011 07:59

After what cr*p Ferguson's spouted previously including the proactive presentation, taking whatever he says with a pinch of salt. Give us a product that works for starters. Think this heads lower, 33m is lower than most expected and AIM stocks definitely not in vogue at present

[holly_dog] 26/5/2011 07:56

Great spot. Don't think anyone has picked that up

It's all about cash and cash equivalents and they would definitely make a buyer pay for that (just completed a deal where we had to pay for a future tax benefit target pulled out of the bag last minute)