Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[smith99] 22/5/2011 21:51

Doc, if I were the MD and was aware of some testing going on within my organisation I am pretty sure i'd have a good idea how things were going, especially if they were going badly before the test timeframe had elapsed. To cut and run like that just stinks and to try and say, hey just coz im the md i didnt know doesnt cut the mustard with me either.

On another note, Have our rather expensive MD's here had a salary cut after the failed P3 trial. If not why not. Its not their money its ours.

[the_doctor] 22/5/2011 21:14

'I hope that the industry persued the MD and brought FULL charges against her'

well, it may have been that anyone could see it was a risk
insiders dont necessarily have much more data

[holly_dog] 22/5/2011 20:56

I would hope given they were cutting 90% of staff and holding back spend significantly shouldn't see a dent of 14m in just 3 months.

I think we will see cash go down to c.40m or so, but it won't matter as a bid will be announced at 25-30p which values at cash of 40 less wind up offset by control premium and some low valuation of ip (which is where there is the best chance of upside)

Not long to wait now,will be interesting to see share price action this week if there is a late surge of interest

[cumnor] 22/5/2011 13:08

Holly, I suspect you are being a tad conservative in your estimate of winding up costs which are usually higher than expected. I expect residual cash to be 30ml, taking ongoing expenditure into account as well. This underpins present mrkt cap and along with listing, ip, bid potential and number of new big holders should give a share price of 25pplus min. Of course if they come up with some good news and more residual cash then share price will rise substantially. I would like to see venture into o/g or mining, given recent retrace and value you can now get for cash. But cash burn will be a fair bit higher than 4 to 5ml so best not create false expectation. There is still possibility of major surprise and upward rerating. In any case very cheap at present. Imo dyor

[holly_dog] 22/5/2011 11:49

they reported £44m in cash in dec, i think £4m - £5m is prob conservative wind-up cost.

does anybody hold any other UK small cap pharma? Looking at the rest of the sector at present

[smith99] 22/5/2011 11:17

I hope that the industry persued the MD and brought FULL charges against her.

Does anyone know the current cash value after redundancies etc

[caradog] 22/5/2011 09:02

PS if you want too read a similar story, check this out:



Dropped 80% in a few minutes after phase 3 failure of flagship product. CEO luckily resigned and sold all her shares 2w before trial results announced on May 9th.

[caradog] 22/5/2011 08:58

I think you just have to accept that once a the flagship drug of a small pharma company fails phase 3, it is dead in the water and only salvage awaits. It is to management's credit that they recognise this and try to save as much cash as they can for the owners. The research around Juvista may throw up some useful compounds in future, but I don't see a commercial company paying much for the privilege of finding out. This research probably ought to be university-based.

The failure of phase 3 was a shock to us all (not least Prof Ferguson, I suspect) but that's the nature of clinical trials. If you could predict results with absolute certainty, there wouldn't be any point in doing them.

[holly_dog] 21/5/2011 14:47

Juvista doesn't work. Company is trading below cash and is attractive as reverse takeover. On thurs they will cash out at 25 -30p which no one expected 6 months ago. Pharma is binary and that's it. Good money to be made in short term

[the_doctor] 21/5/2011 13:33

cumnor, I dont recall the company giving any indication that there were flaws in the trial
Several of the PII trials failed

While Justiva MAY still be shown to work, who is going to gamble the sort of money required - Shire opted not to. Who would?
Unlike cancer drugs that can get funded by charities, Justiva wont do

Sorry, but like Caradog, I've personally written off Juvista
(not that I hold shares)

[caradog] 21/5/2011 13:28

Juvista failed. Nobody is going to fund years of research in the remote hope that the trial result was a fluke. It may have been, all new drug trials have an element of chance, which is why a 1 in 20 likelihood of a result being due to chance is, by convention, deemed significant. To run another trial after the first has failed would be like putting a bet on a 20-1 outsider after the owner has declared he is asking local butchers for a quote for the horsemeat!

[cumnor] 21/5/2011 13:13

Doc, THAT trial failed. Perhaps it was flawed? Results of 1 and 2 not entirely meaningless, though. New methodology, partner etc and many's the product has staged a spectacular resurrection. Unlikely but not improbable. Already well discounted in share price but given potential market i'd still say Justiva not entirely ready to be binned yet. Imo dyor

[the_doctor] 21/5/2011 12:56

alimo - the reasons for the mistake re optimism have been stated
the trial failed. The product doesnt work.

[hollerich1] 21/5/2011 11:59

alimo- to be honest with you i have that suspicion myself, because if something passed the first and second stages and then failed woefully on the third, i think that posses a lot of question, imop ithink someone does not want to pay for the fully potential of the stuff, hereby the setup , in order to get it cheap and either asset strip the thing or reopen the research. watch and keep your eyes open.

[hollerich1] 20/5/2011 13:33

thanks holly-dog- thought something was wrong, and selling now will be the greatest mistake, when the rest of the trial results are not out yet and the actual value of the company is still yet not know. imop the company worths more that what it is, if not gartmore will not be stocking up and there is also 44 million of cash which after all said and done could be reduced to about 30 million which is not yet reflected in the stock. any other view is welcomed.

[holly_dog] 18/5/2011 11:41

there is someone at the other side of that sell order snapping up all the shares, but their order probably just isn't visible to the market. if there was the same sell order with no buyer, price would drop.

so the buyer clears a sell order and then if they continue their buying when sell order is done price will rise.

tbh the price movements the last few weeks are pretty difficult, esp when volumes have been low.

seems a bit short-sighted to be selling with prelims so close

[hollerich1] 18/5/2011 11:17

can someone explain this strange thing happening rnvo is always up when there is a lot of sells.

[holly_dog] 18/5/2011 10:45

Chunky trades this morning, someone just autofired c.600k, still buyers for this could be the start of some positioning pre next thurs

[holly_dog] 17/5/2011 13:26

Kestrel? 6 days to go...

[hollerich1] 17/5/2011 13:03

hollydoggy- i agree very much with you something starnge is happening, someone is trying to buy without pushing the price up.

[the_doctor] 16/5/2011 18:57

'up on a buy of 301 shares? not exactly a large dose of coffee!'

haha