Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[holly_dog] 24/5/2011 12:09

I am hopeful they will get some value for the IP but nothing major. £3.5m - £4m base case to be conservative, anything above that is possible and would be great upside.

But don't think we will see them get new cash investment to push more trials. They have said Juvista would not have had different outcome with different trial, it just didn't work well enough. Can't see who would be willing to put more money in for them to continue - I think Gartmore view this as a financial transaction making a turn on a company trading below cash nothing more. Also reckon they had something to do with the bid in 2010 as a reverse takeover and are lining it up again

[alimo] 24/5/2011 11:31

So between Gartmore and other large holders and the Prof, they know far more about the worth of the IP than any of us do. Good possibility that they are for going on with Renovo and making sure the trials have successful outcomes in future.
They are way in front for scar reduction/prevention and probably have done all the R&D necessary to push on. They know, and surgeons know, the value of their IP, and let's face it the world wants them to succeed so damaged/operated on bodies can be made to look much better than heretofor. If the Prof can pull off a deal like the Shire deal, then he can do it again with others.

[holly_dog] 24/5/2011 08:18

Exactly.just under 10%

[smith99] 23/5/2011 23:34

Lets not forget that Ferguson himself is a substantial shareholder, so the more the 40 million pot gets eroded, the less he gets himself.

[holly_dog] 23/5/2011 23:11

Totally agree GS. 44m after they announced 90% redundancy, can't see how you then go and spend anything more than 2-3m. The more cash they save the more mgt team extract some value.

Hedger don't really get your points don't think anyone has said it will go close to 70p again. Highest said has been 30p which assumes most cash preserved,and some very low value for ip. Also price went up because paeds trial was positive. Why do you think it will go to 10p/5p you must be assuming they go to Vegas and lose on red cash is cash and the value of the share price is less than their cash.

[holly_dog] 23/5/2011 23:11

Totally agree GS. 44m after they announced 90% redundancy, can't see how you then go and spend anything more than 2-3m. The more cash they save the more mgt team extract some value.

Hedger don't really get your points don't think anyone has said it will go close to 70p again. Highest said has been 30p which assumes most cash preserved,and some very low value for ip. Also price went up because paeds trial was positive. Why do you think it will go to 10p/5p you must be assuming they go to Vegas and lose on red cash is cash and the value of the share price is less than their cash.

[cumnor] 23/5/2011 22:58

Agree, G Sounds to an extent. The listing combined with significant cash, 30-35ml whatever, underpins and adds value to share price and probably worth 30p min to certain bidders who might like to move quickly and capitalise on declining prices of whatever assets they might be interested in acquiring. Remember equity and bank finance getting harder to acquire by the day. Cash burn and unexpected costs/expenses etc always certainly more than you suggest i feel but even if it was 30ml for eg i still see minimum value of 25-30p as it is. I also feel upside on that if they play/use their cards right. They are certainly moving as quick as one would expect and, in their RNS's and plans, need to be sensitive to employees/partners/patients etc involved up to now so I only expect the good news for shareholders to start flowing once these preliminaries are out of the way, in a month or so perhaps? I know there are a few derampers who want in cheaper but the cash underpins the company and directors will be very anxious to maximise value of their own shareholdings, particularly after the collapse in the share price Iimo dyor

[hedger123] 23/5/2011 19:51

Aggressive stakeholder finished some time ago otherwise have to make an offer


Cumnor, there is no potential here, no products to come on-line or spin off, just the cash. Cash is going down by the day. Renovo won't exist this time next year, the only question is what is a share worth post-liquidation. Surely the reverse of your last statement is true, as other companies become decimated they become more of a takeover target?

Let's face it Renovo was trading around 22p before Ferguson did that rounds and triggered the spike higher pre-results. No reason for it to go over that level again.

[cumnor] 23/5/2011 15:32

Markets in turmoil and will get worse. Plenty of cheap commodity assets and great for companies with listing, 30ml plus in cash and aggresive stakeholder. Rnvo's share price should rise as value of potential to targets are decimated in Summer mayhem. Imo

[smith99] 23/5/2011 11:09

Just to be clear, the conversation I have been having about the distrustful MD, IS NOT anyone at Renevo. (see previous posts)

[caradog] 23/5/2011 10:42

Re P3 results etc.
If the management of any company got wind of the results of a trial before the trial code was broken, it would negate the whole trial as it would no longer be blind and would be regarded as worthless. The board would probably have to resign.

If any member of the board traded shares after the code was broken and before informing the market, it would amount to serious insider dealing.

Of course, it is possible that a CEO could have a serious disagreement with the board on an entirely unrelated matter and resign without being aware of the upcoming results. This degree of luck would naturally raise suspicion and the regulators would want to look at the circumstances which, in Diamyd's case, they have announced they will do.

Although I lost money with Renovo, I have no doubt that Prof Ferguson acted honourably throughout. He just turned out to be wrong, as I did.

[alimo] 23/5/2011 10:18

Under the R&D - Relevant Literature

Our lead products are based on over 20 years of academic research into the fundamental biology of scar formation and regenerative medicine. The groundbreaking work of Renovo's co-founders produced a wealth of potential drug targets on the strength of which Renovo was launched. Further research within Renovo discovered additional new targets and further developed a selection of those towards clinical evaluation.

A comprehensive list of publications is available from the download in the Related Items to the right >> 15 pages of articles written by key scientists on the development of Scar reduction biochemistry.

The stuff works!

More reports are due on other trials. It would be great to hear that people like Novartis are checking out RN1005 for scar prevention.

[holly_dog] 23/5/2011 10:08

Cara - agree that this won't be bought because of Juvista. This will be bought as either a vehicle for a private company to list, or just flatly taken over and money distributed back to the acquiror (I believe the former most likely). Gartmore have raised their stake c.7% since black Friday, and Kestrel, another fund, have also been buying and I think they are following the same investment thesis some are here.

I think all will be revealed on Thurs, and have put up cash to back my bet but could be wrong. Looking at it from risk/reward the company has taken action to stop cash burn which was £44m in March so that mitigates any downside given we are currently below cash, and as good a chance as any scenario above will occur which I think should see it move to 25p or so, which would be >60% return. Good risk/reward balance which is what this game is about

[smith99] 23/5/2011 09:49

doc, are seriously saying that it was just pure good fortune that she just happened to sell ALL of her shares and resign (which MD does that) just before the "unknown" results of tests that were being conducted within her organisation were about to be released as a P3 Fail ?

[cumnor] 23/5/2011 09:48

Agree, Cardog. But Gartmore did'nt pay 15p a a share if they could have paid less, for whatever reason they want in. They did because it is cheap and they see value over and above the cash which easily underpins the shareprice. imo

[the_doctor] 23/5/2011 09:44

Smith99 - your organisation probably doesnt run blinded trials where nobody knows the results early?

[caradog] 23/5/2011 09:38

Who knows what Gartmore are up to? They are interested in Renovo for their own reasons, e.g. mergers, tax planning etc, They will act in the best interest of their customers which may not exactly correspond with that of small shareholders. I sold out at 17 and don't regret it. Hanging on for a break-up divi is just a shot in the dark. Good luck to you if it comes off, but if it does, it won't,in my opinion, be because someone wants to buy the rights to Juvista.

[smith99] 23/5/2011 09:18

Sorry Hedger, Juvista is dead, Gartmore are too aware of this and yet they increase their holding, Hmmmm, Why do you suppose that would be ? Perhaps so that could sell it all at your 2p level and claim the tax benefit of a massive loss ?

Are you a holder/shorter here or just another Schadenfreude

[hedger123] 23/5/2011 06:05

The chart looks like it's going to fly. NOT. I can't believe some are still talking about Juvista coming to save the day. It's been discontinued as it's been proved not to work. Renovo haven't produced one drug that works. FACT. Forget the clinical trials, most been proved meaningless. Get out before this gets to 10p, 5p, 2p. As that's where it's headed as these boys are taking eveything out of the company before they retire

[smith99] 23/5/2011 00:59

I know what you mean, I am so very tempted to stick another load in here to bring that average right down and even walk away with a decent profit. I just cant bring myself to do it though. I happened to take some profits from my SIPP when the results were delayed (nerves etc) but didnt do the same from my trading account ? WHY ? I guess this is it for me, 23p clears my losses in my sipp and anything above that softens a harsh slapping in my trading account.

We're actually in quite a few shares by the looks of it, I tend to lurk rather than participate in most of my holdings, Ill make a point of saying HI when it happens again. GL2A for next week.

[smith99] 23/5/2011 00:15

Hi GS, This share for me, and I guess for many others is more about damage limitation now, I took the big hit on the back of the RNS, managed to bottom pick to average down on the hope of the 40 odd million in cash and a hopeful takeover or break up. I hope that some of the IP can be realised too. I Guess this week will enlighten us.