Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[smith99] 15/6/2011 10:30

sorry GS, the coffee hadnt kicked in at that time of the morning.

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 10:12

300k or so dumped on the bid again (I think - didnt see the trades going through and havent checked bid/offer prices at the time) and 111k now sat on the offer at 13.5

seller not cleared out quite yet - anyone kept track of these larger trade days.
Just the last few, there's been 3m or so sold to the bid

As you suggested holly, I think it must be JPMorgan or UBS unless Gartmore has had reason to change strategy
With JPM and UBS at around 10m before, if it's just one of them selling, they must be nearly there or now under 3%, going by rough daily volumes and the notion that most equates to sells.

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 09:38

thanks, that's what I thought
The chat was about sbs, but clearly expanded into CFDs then

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 09:37

13.5 offer taken out.
We now have about 70k on the bid at that price

Just one order at 13.75 (about 50k), then Cenkos the only order at 14

[holly_dog] 15/6/2011 09:33

That's interesting, thanks doctor.

GS all good here, happy to patiently wait this out and hoping it stays at this level for another few days now as pay day soon so can bring average down.

Smith, with sb i would highly recommend guaranteed stops unless it is something unique like rnvo at the moment where you can be as confident as is possible in investing of a floor price. the great thing about guaranteed is that you know your exposure and its in the account, and also as pointed out with volatility it goes to phone only and you'll find it difficult to unwind a position. I'm even using sbetting now when trading in my own company shares, you just can't beat guaranteed stops for tax, efficient capital allocation and safety.

I bought in because I believed a reverse takeover would occur so completely buy that a deal is just being wrangled over at present hence the delay..have worked on numerous deals and the timetable always gets pushed back

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 08:55

A different story today

All trades taken off the offer
Only one order at 13.5
CNKOS at 14 and the only order/MM at that level

Could be a plan to coax buyers out, or given the volume that has passed through and limited number of sources likely to sell at these prices, it could mean the overhang has gone.
If so, I'd expect a rapid return to 15p (without news)

[the_doctor] 15/6/2011 07:57

'IG offer a DMA upgrade within the standard account'

is that for CFDs only or spreabets too??

[smith99] 15/6/2011 07:38

long time no see? I'm everywhere mate :-) in the TNT forum, in here, over there :-) Im just sitting this one out now, really got burnt with this one so hoping to get some damage limitation at about 22p. I've opened up a SB account with IG and am playing with that (with little micro trades) to stop this daftness happening to me again hopefully. The other thing ive noticed, especially with my SIPP account which is with Sippdeal. If things go wrong and you need to get out quickly, Sippdeal cant sell, you just get the Call our Helpdesk message until the masses have stopped selling, then they let you take the trade when the damage is done, normally just before the slight bounce! I like the fact as the SB account is one press of the button and its exited. I accept that it wont replace my trading accounts but feel as its an essential part of our toolbox.

[smith99] 14/6/2011 23:11

are we looking at the 90 day period the wrong way around ? what I mean is just because they cant release an RNS during that period does not mean that they have to release one straight after. That RNS could be a month away, especially if they are finalising a deal somewhere. Im overloaded with these shares at the moment so darent take any more but think that providing you hold your nerve then at least 17p will come to you as a minimum.

[daytraders] 14/6/2011 18:42

Yeh just because there is a big seller means nothing, as there has to be a big buyer also, i was in CAD at 16p when there was a big seller and buyer, and went to 40p+ quickly, also was in uniq when everyone was selling at 9p, eventually got 30p+, and in ray when everyone selling under 5p, and we all got 19.5p cash back per share, i think 13.5p is deffo the floor as at worst 25% upside from here in cash alone without rest of assets, to some people they wont wait for that, but that will give me a couple of grand profit for doing nothing, might be alot more, my point being seen it a hundred times before when there was a forced seller, and then a little while after a good rise in share price

[the_doctor] 14/6/2011 18:08

'90 day period ended beginning of june and announcement should be shortly'

if that's from the company, thanks for clarifying

good work with the holdings
I must have missed the release when Gartmore got over 29%, but was away

The volumes could fit with a holder selling just under 3% (and therefore not registering), but either way, unless Gartmore (which would seem unlikely), they should be done soon...

I guess it's possible that someone got wind that the strategy is to mothball for a year and wait for the trial results to add value. I'd understand them wanting to do that. I'd hold on, but it could have caused some to sell??
I also continue to think a bid is likely, albeit with not a huge amount of premium

[holly_dog] 14/6/2011 17:58

doctor - have posted a few times but spoke with rnvo cfo, 90 day period ended beginning of june and announcement should be shortly.

not worried per se, as this is worth an indisputable 17p, whether that crystallises now or in a year could be up for debate. I wanted this to mature sooner as have some companies I'm keen to get into at good prices which don't want to miss out on. No question will be waiting this out though

i have done some research on holding RNS' for the last year. Present shareholder situation of anyone active in the last year according to TR-1s is

Gartmore: 53.3m shares
JP Morgan: 10.6m shares
UBS: 10.5m
Kestrel: 8m

RA Capital sold out entire 10.5m holding on 17/3/11

Gartmore sold down in the rise from 46.4m on 23/9/10 to 31.9m on 2/2/11, and then started buying back from the 25/2/11 finishing up on 8/4/11 to just before 29.9%

Kestrel started buying 5/5/11 and 6/6/11 latest holding

Conclusion: I think JP/UBS are the seller and whoever buyer is has said to MMs you have to bring the price down to around this level to offload that kind of volume. Why they are selling could be for a ton of reasons, perhaps the guy who said to buy last year has been sacked and they're clearing the account, who knows.

News which should be imminent will clear everything up

[the_doctor] 14/6/2011 17:10

why blame MMs?

there's a large seller (or has been - 2m traded today, virtually all to the bid)
that's not any game.

[undertaker] 14/6/2011 16:14

I topped up my Isa this am with 39384 @ 13.46, but can't see it reported anywhere!

[the_doctor] 14/6/2011 16:04

To follow that up, every trade today has been by someone dumping onto the bid, apart from about 4 from 8:22-8:29 this morning, that were bought off the offer (or bid/offer prices in each case)

It's odd really. Why would the seller not have sold to Gartmore before if they wanted out?
I can only guess that they've been forced by the recent downturn in other stocks

[the_doctor] 14/6/2011 15:20

I've not been watching it, but from the vol I can see still on the page, it has been a seller/sellers dumping to a buyer/buyers on the bid

Cenkos sat at 13.5 with other sell orders
then a few larger blocks
Looks to me as if someone wants either to sell more, or hold it down here.

As I've posted before, if Gartmore wanted to reverse something in, it could be in their interest to have the share price held low

I'm happy waiting, but if it bothers you, have you tried calling RNVO to ask when the 90 days period ends, or if they can say anything about Gartmore's stake?

[holly_dog] 14/6/2011 14:57

Does anybody have L2 who can make sense of all the trading, is there a big iceberg etc?

[daytraders] 14/6/2011 13:51

yeh just give us back 17p+ in cash a share, and at least 4p to 6p later for other assets.

[hollerich1] 14/6/2011 13:37

can the company do us all a big favour and just announce this awaited news.