Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[cumnor] 14/4/2011 15:36

I have to admit this is exciting.

[argylerich] 14/4/2011 11:41

Topped up just before... damn it! Sods law to miss out on the extra shares!

[the_doctor] 14/4/2011 11:14

Nice shake earlier!

[the_doctor] 14/4/2011 09:58

'time value of money'

for us, yes, but for investors that are going to be sticking with it?

it also works both ways. If they can add value with coming data etc

[holly_dog] 13/4/2011 16:59

Sounds pretty plausible. I would just like to see it happen asap, time value of money etc they must be in discussions at present

[the_doctor] 13/4/2011 10:19

Well, a timely front cover in today's City AM highlights how the IPO window is closed

I therefore think that Gartmore will use Renovo as a vehicle for VCs to exit a private biotech - or at least starting that process.

1. Renovo to merge or acquire/reverse takeover a private biotech
2. Renovo provides funds. Possibly some additional funding added/sale of VC stakes
3. This allows VCs to set up an exit route. It also allows the private biotech to get more funds without further VC input
4. Rather than sell off Renovo assets on the cheap, they can take longer and sell them/outlicense at the right time, adding more value

Makes sense.

[the_doctor] 12/4/2011 09:43

'Back in 2009, Gartmore was a prime mover behind the use of AIM-quoted Evolutec, another former pharma company, as a shell in which to reverse nanotechnology company Nanoco'



'Panmure Gordon reckons that if the company were liquidated it will cost up to £7m and Renovo would be worth 19p-21p a share. There could be additional value from IP sales'

With the IPO window pretty much closed, I'd have thought that reversing into a shell with this much cash would be an attractive option to many private companies at present?
If the house broker is saying 19-21p before adding IP value, then I cant see them recommending a price of anything less than this.
IMO there could be a reverse takeover valuing the RNVO component at 25-30p per share depending on further trial results over 2011.

[the_doctor] 12/4/2011 09:26

Yeah. I'd imagine that a few buyers put off by the overhang may now be getting back in.

We await news on a Juvidex deal...
Prevascar data...

I wonder if the Juvidex deal will turn into an offer instead.

looking at other companies, it doesnt take long for approaches to come in.

Gartmore up at 28%... they'll want to ensure that things move the way they want.

20p looks a good first step to me, with upside to 25-30p..

[holly_dog] 12/4/2011 09:07

could be a bit of action today..good start

[the_doctor] 11/4/2011 11:11

I'd imagine that any further hint of 'for sale' or 'offer period' should see a nice rise in share price to the levels you suggest or higher

[holly_dog] 08/4/2011 18:51

Price was able to tick up today on pretty low volume, so either seller is waiting for it to rise a bit more before another dump or seller is gone.

If so it could quickly push up towards fair value of c.20 - 22p with £0 attributed to IP

[supernumerary] 08/4/2011 12:58

It's possible Gartmore are still buying, and the TR-1 was only triggered by the change in ownership when Henderson bought Gartmore (see Section 2). If they had an order in the market for say 2% they wouldn't normally report every 1% step, only when the order had been filled or cancelled.

[the_doctor] 08/4/2011 12:29

Thanks, yes, I figured that was the case.
It means, IMO that the 'before' number is pointless.

It would be far more useful if the before number related to shares at the last time it had to be reported, so that one could determine the exact change in ownership.
The current approach means someone could acquire say 20% of the company, but to someone not digging back to find the last holdings, it wouldnt be clear if they'd just bought 1 share, or 17-20% of the company.

[gnnmartin] 08/4/2011 11:22

TD, they only need to declare the trade that takes them through the integer percentage holding. So they did not need to declare the trade or trades that took them up to 52.77m.
Nigel Martin

[the_doctor] 08/4/2011 10:31

After the last holdings RNS, Gartmore said it had 51,761,873

but before this one, it has 52,773,351

Not sure if they've filled it in wrong - I hate these RNSs, since the 'before' part can be very misleading!
It should refer to their last reported amount.

Here, it means that Gartmore has added a further 1.6m, as opposed to just the 600k the RNS implies.

Now 53,367,102

I didnt see the 4-6m odd trades the other day.
Clearly Gartmore didnt get these.
So... who did? or where they some non-trade transfer??
Would be good to see another inst with over 3%

[bill182] 08/4/2011 10:19

Gartmore still buying. They now hold 28.01%. Share price creeping up, and it definitely looks as though the selling pressure has gone!

[the_doctor] 07/4/2011 12:58

ok, thanks

Well, the recent volume would seem sufficient to have finished the seller(s)

depends where it's all gone. Would be good to see a holdings RNS

UBS had reduced some - possibly them down/out?
RA was reducing, but is totally out

Holders in Nov 2010

Gartmore Investment Management 43,532,167 22.9%
JP Morgan Asset Management 18,998,953 9.9%
Shire Pharmaceuticals Group 12,378,689 6.5%
UBS AG 11,473,760 6.0%
Legal and General Investment Management 7,502,624 3.9%
National Financial Services 6,375,139 3.4%
Goldman Sachs collateral account 5,942,259 3.1%

[holly_dog] 07/4/2011 12:49

less than 300k, but no seller keeping it down so far so perhaps the big icebergs gone

[the_doctor] 07/4/2011 12:13

what's the vol today?

It would be intriguing if Gartmore went over 30%, but I dont expect it.
I cant see them making a bid for RNVO, unless they/a friend own a sufficient chunk of another biotech and want to merge then. Gartmore has 5% of AKT and to get a decent return there, the company could do with more cash IMO - since I think the business model falls down otherwise.
Could be a coincidence though.

[holly_dog] 07/4/2011 12:10

finally moving? been enough volume to think that all those who bought on the way up who want out have found a buyer

[the_doctor] 07/4/2011 07:43

I didnt see directly, but was the volume about 4m yesterday?

Gartmore only needed about 1.6m to increase a %

If others have been buying, then we should soon see another above 3%, depending on how that 4m was traded etc.

[bill182] 06/4/2011 17:24

Smith99, I think you will find most of the Board will be leaving after the statutory 90 day period, if not before.

[smith99] 06/4/2011 16:54

I guess the bod's are in no hurry to get themselves out of a very cushy job either.

[the_doctor] 05/4/2011 17:29

Prevascar
'The interim data are histological and biomarker analyses of Prevascar and placebo treated incisions excised at one month'

Recruitment completed at the start of Feb, so they should have the results soon?

[the_doctor] 05/4/2011 17:18

'Main thing is quick conclusion'

well, I think it'll take a while to conclude, but a first step is certainly a decision on what they're going to do.

That's likely to require:

1) H1 2010 product data
2) time to assess trade interest for products

But the ball could get rolling soon and this price is well supported by cash