Renewi Share Discussion Threads

[george stobart] 18/6/2024 08:47

creeping up broadly as expected ahead of the 21st, but surprisingly, volume is muted/about average (both in London and Amsterdam)

heavy buying volume pressure has not started yet by the looks of it

[george stobart] 13/6/2024 08:37

Can this RWI print 7 quid by the 21st? Frankly likely to take a bath post the rebalance ie on the 24th but we'll see

[theolonghair] 12/6/2024 17:23

Little reminder:
Green obligations
(from July 8th 2019)
with a coupon of 3%
ending this July 2024.

I really don't know whether this has any impact on anything.
But I wanted to throw this in here.
It ends around when the ex-div 28th & pay-date 31st of July 2024.

Maybe it can be prolonged as well... Who knows.

[george stobart] 07/6/2024 11:34

As per RBC Capital Markets, Renewi is anticipated to see 9.94 days worth of buying volume (only from passives) on the 21st June.

@Kindwah fully agree on that. I'm just talking about the ramp up from the 5th June to the 21st June - given it is formal, active midcap managers can start building positions during this period anticipating ~10worth of ADV on the 21st, instead of paying as you say 850p

[kinwah] 07/6/2024 11:06

George Stobart. I think the reverse is true. What tends to happen is the passive funds tend to push for example RWI's share price to an unsustainable level say 850p on the day before it joins the index. This means the index funds are underweight in an overpriced share when it joins the index. The price naturally falls as they build up their position towards a market weighting. This gives them a 'profit' over the index.

[george stobart] 06/6/2024 12:44

literally if oil prices didn't collapse on Monday/Tuesday, Tullow Oil's share wouldn't have tanked -5% for that day and it would have taken Renewi's place in the FTSE 250.

sometimes 'better lucky than good' but here we are.

So going into the FTSE was a combination of RWI leaking the sale of UK business causing the price to rally weeks ahead of the cut off and oil prices falling leaving Tullow out

Renewi - a UK Midcap stock that owns zero UK assets ('better leaky than good' probably for that matter)

[george stobart] 06/6/2024 08:58

FTSE Russell announces the quarterly changes to the FTSE UK Index Series.

"All constituent changes will be applied after the close of business on Friday, 21 June 2024 and will be effective on Monday, 24 June 2024 (rankings by capitalisation are as at close of business on Tuesday, 4 June 2024)."

Quite frankly and as it always happens, active managers and hedge funds will front run the ETFs (iShares, Vanguards etc) and tracker funds (L&G) well ahead of the 21 June rebalance date

[george stobart] 05/6/2024 17:56

*FTSE 250: RENEWI PLC TO BE PROMOTED TO THE FTSE 250

FTSE 250 changes:

◦ Alpha Group, Ocado Group, Renewi, RS Group, St. James’s Place, XPS Pensions Group to be added

◦ Darktrace, Ferrexpo, LondonMetric Property, Mobico Group, Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust and Vistry Group to be exluded

[outsizeclothes.com] 05/6/2024 17:50

Did that announcement arrive?

[george stobart] 04/6/2024 17:25

Renewi to join the FTSE 250!!! Announcement tomorrow 5/6

Sounds unreal but Renewi mcap £526.8m surpassed Alfa Financial £522.5m and Tullow Oil £514.5mn literally in the last mins of trading and auctions as both Alfa and Tullow share prices collapsed.

I may be wrong so let's wait for the formal announcement tomorrow from FTSE Russell Group

[dplewis1] 04/6/2024 08:31

Stifel raises target price to 780p from 730p

[george stobbart] 01/6/2024 12:31

Apologies for my last misleading post- Renewi has formally appointed Goldman Sachs regarding the takeover process etc since the CMD and post the Macquarie bid but has not yet updated their website

Appointment of advisors

Renewi has appointed Goldman Sachs International as financial adviser alongside existing advisers Greenhill, Peel Hunt and Berenberg and has also hired FTI Consulting as Public Relations advisors.

[george stobart] 31/5/2024 15:49

Yes, that would be possible - the funny thing here is, where the share price stands, Renewi is just about to be promoted to the FTSE 250 after 5 years left in small cap purgatory (cut off next Tue 4th June)

They are shutting down their UK business but their London shares (out of nowhere) are joining the FTSE 250 with a lot passive buying expected (iShares, Vanguard etc)

[wad collector] 31/5/2024 15:35

As it divests from the UK business, will it see this as a reason to drop it's London listing , especially as the next Government is unlikely to be investor friendly?

[george stobbart] 30/5/2024 19:03

Note RBC Capital Markets sent to clients today 30/5

*INDEX CHANGES*

FTSE250: First we got TUI being replaced by BUT LN tomorrow – for the quarterly review Auto exits for the moment are FXPO LN (by quite a bit), MCG LN, ORIT LN (close to limit) and NESF LN (just within limit to remain) – we see the replacements for the auto exits being TLW LN and LIO LN – if the other two are excluded then XPS LN and RWI are next in line to replace them – data cut-off 4th June

[gregsc] 30/5/2024 17:26

Kinwah,
The six month limitation expired on 29th April.
Macquarie can make a second bid anytime they like now.

[kinwah] 30/5/2024 16:57

For me the interesting thing about the disposal is whether or not the disposal constitutes a material change of circumstances (as judged by the Takeover Panel). RWI has said that its Benelux business is highly predictable compared to the risks associated with the UK business. If I was Macquarie, I'd put a request in to the Panel just to test the water as I think there is now a pretty good basis on which to get Panel approval for an unsolicited bid.

[pdosullivan] 30/5/2024 16:39

For me the key highlight within the release is the step change in free cash flow from here with the cessation of UK PPP outflows and the imminent final payment of deferred COVID era tax payments.

[sausage7] 30/5/2024 16:27

It gets my vote to Outsize. By not considering the approach and with the resulting share price performance the management have weakened their case for shareholder support. Unless as George says, it’s a cleaner business now that perhaps will command a higher take out price. Here’s hoping.

[george stobart] 30/5/2024 11:54

They just pruned the UK business to be clean from a cash flow perspective and in a better negotiating position to sell the whole group later in the year

[outsizeclothes.com] 30/5/2024 11:33

I hope that they do Pug. A half decent offer will get my vote.

[pugugly] 30/5/2024 11:22

Could not agree more - $64K question - Now share price is in the pits and the toxic UK operations unloaded will they try and have another nibble?

[outsizeclothes.com] 30/5/2024 11:17

If Otto and Co. had taken the £8.15 being offered by Macquarie, my "divvy" from having that invested, in a 5 year bond at even 4.5% interest, would now be 36.675p.
How many years will we be waiting until the Company can pay that sort of dividend?
I would think at least 5. Possibly 8 to 10.
In today's "we're making great progress" trumpeting in the results, whilst earlier refusing to even tell shareholders of the offer[s], Otto and Co. have really shown themselves to be solely and totally in it for themselves, planning now to have their snouts in the trough long term, no doubt considering awarding themselves huge bonuses for their self-serving "success", whilst driving the Company into even more debt.

Come back Macquarie !