Renewi Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 25/3/2020 07:29

Read across from Biffa this morning not nice .

PLUS slow down or stopping of construction actvities likely to impact sales of treated soil (imo)
Also experts suggest virus will be active for longer than previously thought - So conclusion hurting for longer - May well need goverment support BUT waste treatment an essential industry.

[george stobbart] 24/3/2020 10:46

nahh i dont think so, if markets crash tomorrow this will go under as well

[gregsc] 24/3/2020 10:38

Keep going George, you seemed to have had an effect this morning.

[sjoerdaktetas] 24/3/2020 09:03

Thanks George, very insightful.

[george stobbart] 24/3/2020 08:56

- Is their business/revenue hurt at all? If so, how? Garbage still has to be collected..

Yes. The Core Commercial Benelux business should see slowdown because of dutch/belgian municipalities postponing infrastructure projects for a few months.

- Do they get in trouble with their high amounts of debt? In these periods stocks with high amounts of (net) debt are getting punished severely... which makes sense

Net Debt is actually very low compared to peers following recent disposals. It is now 2.88x Net Debt / Ebitda whilst other listed companies like Covanta have >6x. Covenant is >3.5x so there is headroom. If Ebitda completely collapses they will get in trouble. When calculating Ebitda you should also add back 20mn EUR coming from ATM (new or legacy) at some point in 2020/21 possibly.

- Can we relate the acquisition of Viridor to Renewi? The company is 10 times bigger than Renewi

Yes we can. Viridor got sold at 18.5x EBITDA. Renewi has more pricing power than Viridor as the Benelux market is a duopoly. A low multiple for RWI at 8x would result in a price of 92p.

[sjoerdaktetas] 24/3/2020 08:32

Hi guys. I have some questions about how Renewi is doing during this volatile period of the Corona Crisis:
- Is their business/revenue hurt at all? If so, how? Garbage still has to be collected..
- Do they get in trouble with their high amounts of debt? In these periods stocks with high amounts of (net) debt are getting punished severely... which makes sense
- Can we relate the acquisition of Viridor to Renewi? The company is 10 times bigger than Renewi... I would they you cannot compare the multiples directly, but of course it gives an indication.

It's a shame for current shareholders that the share has dropped down so severely since it was doing very good after the ATM approval.. Good luck everyone and hope you can help me with these questions!

[pugugly] 23/3/2020 13:33

Robsy2 Thanks Debt and gearing look horrible from Edison no wonder share price is crashing more than the market (imo)
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 490.4
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 199

[dplewis1] 19/3/2020 10:39

Very good point George. Could well be other PE firms looking to put their money to work in defensive companies - I assume RWI is up today because of this.

[george stobbart] 19/3/2020 09:26

Viridor got acquired yesterday by KKR for £4.2 billion representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.5x despite corona fears in the markets.

Viridor is a British waste / recycling company equivalent to Renewi.

If RWI had to be sold at a very low multiple c. 8x EV/EBITDA that would mean a price of c. 92p.

[8robson] 18/3/2020 16:27

The volatility is truly crazy.

[dplewis1] 17/3/2020 17:37

Only 2.6mm shares traded though, pretty small in notional terms

[gregsc] 17/3/2020 17:02

Could be institutional buying off market. May find out tomorrow.

[george stobbart] 17/3/2020 16:26

trades literally like a phase 3 pharma penny stock.

lets hope its not another dead cat bounce. volume suggests MMs movement, not any legit institutional buying.

[dplewis1] 17/3/2020 16:14

RWI trades ike a penny shares these days!

[robsy2] 16/3/2020 16:10

go onto Edison , you'll see a ton of info on RWI there. It's free.

[pugugly] 16/3/2020 12:26

Can anyone remember the level of debt after the disposals? Stockopedia figures do not seem to have been updated as no accounts seem to have been issued since disposals.

[george stobbart] 12/3/2020 16:52

No idea tbh, no TR1s for a while to see new buyers / sellers.

The rally coincided with Viridor's takeover news (at reported 13-18x EBITDA) and some analysts flagged that a takeover of RWI at 8x EBITDA would equal c. 93p valuation. Renewi also got certification for secondary building materials that supported that rally.

But no idea how lower or higher this is going. Stocks sell off regardless of fundamentals or valuation so nobody knows.

[mathurin1] 12/3/2020 16:37

George - please give us a prediction of how high this may
rebound before the end of 2020.
Who in your opinion was pushing the price up by 11% per day recently and why ?

[dplewis1] 12/3/2020 12:08

Absolute shocker here. Waited all that time, thought worst was over and then boom.. how's your luck!

[tole] 12/3/2020 11:24

Gap fill on the charts. Picked up a few here.

[outsizeclothes.com] 11/3/2020 14:42

Surely just shifting the plastic around from incineration to recycling ? Or am I missing something ? (which wouldn't be unusual)

[dplewis1] 11/3/2020 10:17

Seems to be down because they signed the European Plastics Pact?

[outsizeclothes.com] 10/3/2020 10:46

Yes, good to see that the shareprice channel now seems to be established with a 33p firm resistance bottom.
Chart-wise it could also be argued that we've hit a 'triple bottom' at 33, and therefore any break of a 35+ end of day close would set up an immediate target of a return to 43+ on the upside .

[george stobbart] 09/3/2020 16:08

lucky time also for Renewi to have sold Reym a few months ago that was fully exposed to oil prices

[george stobbart] 09/3/2020 16:05

Thanks got it. Nice price turnaround for RWI in this messy trading day for the markets.