Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 17/3/2022 09:07

Also, if they're selling the assets and essentially winding down the business, why not pay the March coupon on the prefs?

[keith95] 17/3/2022 09:00

The Board of Raven is deeply saddened by the events in Ukraine and sincerely hopes for a peaceful resolution as soon as possible. The events which began on 24 February 2022 and the subsequent impact of sanctions have made it impracticable for the business to continue in its current form and the Board announces that it has entered into an arrangement to allow it to divest itself of its Russian business to Prestino Investments Ltd, a Cypriot company, to be owned and controlled by Raven's Russian management team, led by Igor Bogorodov ("the Transaction"). The Board believes this to be the most effective way to meet any further sanction and counter sanction requirements. In light of the Transaction and the matters set out in this announcement including the conditionality surrounding the exercise of the put option, it is the Board's intention that the listings of the Company's shares be cancelled.

[muzerewa] 17/3/2022 08:59

I'm afraid the governance of this company resembles that of a post-Soviet kleptocracy.

[keith95] 17/3/2022 08:56

hxxps://polaris.brighterir.com/public/raven_property_group/news/rns/story/xeeknjx

Here is the latest on Raven web site.

[zangdook] 17/3/2022 08:47

First reaction on a quick reading:

Not entirely sure how "we can't get cash out of Russia for now" translates into "we have to sell all the assets for nominal consideration and some prefs which may not be honoured". Given the directors' previous record I suspect the details will somehow favour them over us.

[mwj1959] 17/3/2022 08:19

It's been coming for days...

[cc2014] 17/3/2022 08:12

Yesterday's volume suggested someone knew this was coming.

[spectoacc] 17/3/2022 07:48

Actually quite innovative:

"...The Company would retain an economic interest in RRHCL via existing unsecured loans of £41 million and Rub1.1 billion to RHHCL and non voting preference shares of £678 million, attracting a coupon of 8%, 15% and 10% per annum respectively and with a term of ten years until maturity. The preference shares are not convertible and will be issued to the Company as part of a restructuring of RRHCL's balance sheet, converting the total of its existing share premium account to preference shares by way of a a bonus issue . The denomination of the instruments is as noted above. As explained later in this announcement, due to the current circumstances in Russia, the introduction of international sanctions and Russian counter sanctions, exchange controls limiting the movement and conversion of roubles to hard currency and the impact that is having and will continue to have on the Russian economy, the Company is unable to assess the current value of these loans and preference shares or the ability of RRHCL to service these loans or preference shares in the future at this time."

[dandigirl] 17/3/2022 07:48

Inevitable, I suppose.

[spectoacc] 17/3/2022 07:39

Pfft.

"In a short timeframe of just two weeks, the impact of the actions of Russia on Ukraine has completely compromised the Company's business model and its ability to assess its current financial position and ability to inform the market accordingly. The recent performance of its listed securities confirms the market's view. Given that sanctions have only just been introduced and that they are expected to be in place for the foreseeable future, their impact on the Company's market and financial position is unquantifiable at this time. Therefore any estimate of the net asset value of the Company today or certainty of its future income profile is not possible in the current circumstances. "

[gfrae] 16/3/2022 12:09

As you say Bench2, £25m pa plus the crippling late payment charges, is not feasible, these will have to be converted into equity for the company to survive, the market is betting 1 Pref: 3 Ord.

[bench2] 16/3/2022 11:41

I still believe that Bilton and Hirsch will look to simplify the capital structure and offer a 3 or 4 for 1 swap of the 12% Pref into Ords . A 12% Sterling cumulative prior charge for a rouble rented warehouse portfolio does not now stack up ( see my post 1764 )

[bench2] 16/3/2022 11:08

The annual results for year to 31 Dec 2021 are due to be published on Monday 21 March . The auditors may well be reluctant to sign off if the company cannot state confidence as a "Going Concern" , so there may be a delay .

[zangdook] 16/3/2022 11:07

They will always need willing foreign investment. What they don't like is foreign companies shutting down their Russian operations and leaving people unemployed and assets unused. They have better things to do than pinch warehouses. See post 1820. I agree circumventing term limits is iffy, but remember we don't have them at all in the UK.

[bench2] 16/3/2022 10:59

If there is a negotiated settlement and Russia ends up with a larger chunk of South Eastern Ukraine , then there will be a dead cat bounce in RAV and RAVP . We have all re-learnt an expensive lesson about Political and Country risk . Owning a large NON portable fixed asset in a dictator run country however cheap the asset can end in tears : Lord Vestey had all his farms taken in Venezuela , Mugabe grabbed most of the best run farms in Zimbabwe , and Putin and cronies will take what they like particularly if owned by the imperialists Brits . The common denominator is when the person at the top circumvents any fixed term presidency ..... the longer one person remains in power the worse it becomes .

[gfrae] 16/3/2022 09:57

There is/are also a substantial buyer who has been buying all the way down.
The market seems to be suggesting that the Prefs are going to be converted into Ords around 1:3. It is either something like that or curtains.

[spectoacc] 16/3/2022 09:52

You raise a good point of when Russia ceases to be uninvestable. Not just Putin, but all his cronies, the St Petersburg set, the Oligarchs, the judiciary, all need to go. A democratic Russia, that doesn't invade sovereign neighbours, assassinate at home & abroad, or fund groups like the Wagner SS or hackers or state-sponsored doping.

It'll happen, one day - but RAV won't be around to see it. The warehouses likely will, owned by creditors further up the line than RAVP.

A new Russian revolution is needed - and after that, a Chinese one. Totalitarian states may look good for a while, but their demise is built in to their leader-for-life system. Look at Xi's reaction to Omicron.

[hpcg] 16/3/2022 09:26

If there is an algo running on RAV it will be one aiming to sell to any bidder rather than it being walked down. Irrespective of the result of the war in Ukraine sanctions really aren't going to end soon and the Russian economy is starting to crater. Foreign investment is going to stay out of Russia until at least Putin has gone, and probably a good while after. I find it very difficult to come up with a scenario where these return any money.

[cc2014] 16/3/2022 08:34

Aggressive algo sell bot running on RAV. Who knows whether it will run for another 5 minutes or all day. If it runs all day RAV's share price will get destroyed.

Nothing happenning on RAVP

Edit. Algo bot looks like it doesn't want to go below 4p atm

[cc2014] 15/3/2022 11:58

RAV being walked down. Below 5p but at least the spread is around 15%

RAVP being shown as a laughable 10 - 20p but the trades appear to be around 11.5 - 17p.

MM really don't want to know.

POLY hit 200p yesterday. 130p now. It's pretty scary out there.

[wllmherk] 14/3/2022 21:01

thanks dandigirl and CC2014

wllm :)

[dandigirl] 14/3/2022 18:43

From the RNS dated 3/3/22:

"""and at this time it is unlikely that either a distribution to ordinary shareholders in relation to the year ended 31 December 2021 or the preference share coupon for the quarter ending 31 March 2022 will be paid""".

[wllmherk] 14/3/2022 17:28

Monkster, what do you mean by that goes for the principal to? I held on ex div date so I should receive my dividend payment unless the company have gone bankrupt. Wllm

[ramellous] 14/3/2022 14:35

The supermarket might have been empty as it was nearly closing time but also it looks like the people there are going into survival mode as this Russian you tuber says. Some good content from there still.