Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 15:55

Not saying someone nice would replace him but merely that he is headed for the Hague and needs to be replaced. History suggests another opportunist will replace him. But Putin has to go, by whatever means.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:36

Relying on someone nice replacing Putin after you have cut Russian's living standard by 25% would seem a longshot.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:33

A further point what if the West loses the economic war ? What if printing money stops working ? If living standards start falling how stable are our democracies ?

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 15:30

The problem is that Ukraine IS the West and Putin sees that as a problem... for him, not for Russia. Best outcome is that Russia prevails (which is certain) and some kind of return to commercial normality as sanctions are lifted. Both sides need that. But the genie is out of the bottle... so a return to political normality is out of the question. For Russia, Putin's overthrow is essential.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 15:15

The West should be encouraging the two parties to negotiate for the benefit of us all, as soon as possible before some terrible atrocity is committed after which there will be no possibility of talks. Trying to "win" this war at any cost may cost the lives of millions, and who knows then who will win...my bet is that it would be nobody in Europe, perhaps China or the US ?

[m_kerr] 02/3/2022 15:14

'Wheat - if Russia gains control of Ukraine, that's 1/4 of the world's wheat. The developed world may survive without, what of eg Lebanon, Middle East, the 3rd world?'

not true - the figure you quote is the amount exported, not total production. RUS / UKR account for around 14% of global wheat production.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 15:07

Lest we forget amongst all the propaganda from Russia about Ukrainian atrocities in the east, the West's war in Iraq etc, that Putin's Russia invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea, sent Russian soldiers into the Donbass, bombed hospitals and largely razed Aleppo to keep Al-Assad in power, destroyed Grozny, and seems unable to produce an international athlete who isn't on a doping programme, including giving 3 separate heart drugs to a 15 year old skater.

Locks up or murders opposition at home, produces billionaires at the expense of the population, assassinates abroad, whether through radiation poisoning or worse.

Rant over - we have to win. It's them or us.

Russia is uninvestable.

[irish_neris] 02/3/2022 14:35

@16881 The problem is if Putin gets overthrown who takes over? There's probably a few military guys who'd like the role or another putin wannabe hiding in the Duma waiting for his chance to push some Russian muscle global or there could be a power vacum and years on internal strife

[hpcg] 02/3/2022 14:15

The west needs nothing from Russia, and that includes oil. No one is taking Russian loadings; traders and refineries aren't buying and tanker owners aren't putting it in ships. When it comes to economic hardship versus security the latter wins every single time. Even with wheat, where the trade off is different, eating less would be beneficial for most in the developed world, and simply reducing waste would create food out of nowhere.

Potentially these have found a level as some people will punt on a tiny proportion of their portfolio. Not for me, there are so many more opportunities that don't have a total wipe out at one end of the return spectrum.

[m_kerr] 02/3/2022 13:32

reminder that they need to come up with approx £10-12m worth per half year in euros for the amortised euro denominated debt they have.

check note 32 of the last final year results. a 10% weakening of rouble leads to profit falling by £17.5m, so as it stands, the 30% fall in rouble will lead to profit falling by almost £53m. it gets a bit complicated with interest rates also changing, but it's a mess at the moment that shouldnt be touched with a bargepole.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:55

Money has to flow. Russia needs it to flow, as does the West. It will be resolved. This is not North Korea... it is a vibrant and rich economy. Putin is damaged goods and will be overthrown.

[cc2014] 02/3/2022 12:29

So, in summary Raven directors have no more visibility on the future than we do because they don't know if the money will be able to flow between countries and currencies.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:14

Agreed, this is a good statement. The bod wants to keep this a going concern, given the amount of skin they have in the game.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:12

I do understand that Putin is a thug but the Russian people will not put up with sanctions indefinitely. Putin will crush Ukraine, certainly, but the future must be a Russia with new leadership.

[bench2] 02/3/2022 11:11

A good statement from the company , and in an emergency the directors will do everything to retain cash , so passing the pref div a no brainer . I used to own the CULS and I think the company must be relieved they have none in issue now . Invesco must be pleased they were bought out of their very large holdings of Ords and Pref .

[spittingbarrel] 02/3/2022 11:07

The son of a friend of mine is an accountant who has some seriously rich clients. One of them, a Russian, was forced to sell one of his businesses (est. value £250 million), to Putin for £280,000. It was that or suddenly find he can no longer do business in Russia.

With a man like that in charge what chance Raven?

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 11:01

Sanctions are popular with no-one, Russia or the West. They damage everybody. In this one sided war, the best outcome is a negotiated settlement asap.

[stemis] 02/3/2022 10:56

Interesting that the ordinaries went up on the announcement but the prefs fell.

[montyhedge] 02/3/2022 10:27

Like we said red or black, lose all your money or they survive, Ukraine situation if deal done say six months time. Ok cumulative so carried forward say 1 year then they pay 12p dividend, shareprice would treble.So you can buy at 18p, option money.Can they survive until deal done Ukraine ceasefire and peace talks also sanctions eased.Directors have shedloads.

[my retirement fund] 02/3/2022 09:31

So the prefs are not even worth the carrying value of about 2 qtr payments (6p) which Kenny said were held in sterling reserves. Clearly they are legally going to try to keep it as a going concern on paper in order to pay Director salaries and expenses, but in reality would the last one out turn the lights out please.

[irish_neris] 02/3/2022 09:30

So no payment at the end of the month then.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 09:17

Indeed.

"The ability of the Company to continue to access the funds of its Russian subsidiaries and whether those funds can be converted to the correct currency at a commercial exchange rate is the greatest uncertainty at this time."