Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 10/3/2022 23:17

Zangdook, the prefs are not cumulative are they? I have not checked, but Think a missed div is gone for good.

I am sure we will all give ourselves (the USA and its vassals I mean) pat on the back when everything worthwhile in Russia is owned by China and Russia with all the natural resources a Chinaman has ever dreamed of is firmly under China's thumb. Thirty years of western hubris and arrogance laid the foundations for the present disastrous state of affairs.

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 17:31

Agreed - sanctions are here until Putin goes - not until the Ukrainian war ends (though possible they get scaled back a bit if that happens) It's bye bye Russian economy and back to the USSR; with Putin oligarchs and the new Chinese colonial masters getting what economic activity there is So this is likely to go into admin and then be bought out by Russian/Chinese money for very little; most likely with Russian banks rolling/advancing loans to new owners

[hpcg] 10/3/2022 17:22

Sanctions are short term to hit logistics, medium term to hit production for this war, and long term to hit rearmament. As Spectoacc says, sanctions work to limit the capability of those sanctioned and do so effectively. They won't stop the invasion because probably nothing will (perhaps the severe military losses that appear to be happening). Any investor whose thesis is that sanctions will be removed because they don't like them is away with the fairies.

[zangdook] 10/3/2022 10:21

It's a bit hard to invest for the long term if you have to dump stocks every time a war is started by the country the company operates in. If you held US stocks you'd be in and out like something obscene - if you managed to find a peaceful moment to be in. The UK is bad enough. I suppose you could invest in China but that brings its own moral questions. For me the issue is more the company than the country - best avoid the war profiteers who really drive this sort of thing; the arms manufacturers and military suppliers. I have no qualms with Raven, but to each his own.

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 10:05

To be fair to RAV it's, AFAIK, got no oligarch links and is thus one of the cleanest Russian companies; but a clean bankrupt company isn't very interesting

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 10:02

Indeed; but they'll credit bid it

[cc2014] 10/3/2022 09:57

Do some people not see the moral issue here?

Investing in Russia whilst the Russian army goes around bombing civilians, committing war crimes and dislocating millions of people.

Everyone has to play their part. JRS for example is clearly worth more than the NAV as most of the investments have been valued at zero.

However, by investing in Russia you are assisting Putin and affecting the lifes of 43 million people in Ukraine.


For those were already invested in Russia as of 2 weeks ago, I see it as reasonable to be able to choose when you sell your shares, but new investments no.

[bench2] 10/3/2022 09:21

Latest JRS NAV is 38.6p , share price now 135p up from low of 85p , some must believe war will be over and Moscow SE will re-open .

[montyhedge] 10/3/2022 09:16

Yes see VTB opening accounts in Russia, yuan accounts offering 8%, Chinese closer to Russia. Raven would be perfect for a Chinese property company.

[bench2] 10/3/2022 09:12

Another useful barometer to watch is the daily NAV and share price of JRS ... a currently ungeared Investment Trust 100% invested in large cap Russian equities . The share price is up 12% today well in excess of the written down value of the portfolio which from memory is about 42p per share ( down from 900p last year ) . Hope springs eternal

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 23:21

You are in compliance with your loan to value covenants until they are tested, and when they are next tested they won't be complaint; won't take much to trip LTV covenants and the European amortising loans likely have debt service covenants The rubble loan caps will likely be dependent upon Russian bank counter parties to pay out on them Yep, if Putin is couped/suicided quickly then things could rebound quickly, but if that doesn't happen very hard to see how this survives Most REITs carry debt of 20-40 LTV - as they all blew up with 60 plus LTVs in the credit crunch; the leverage was too high here before anyone even mentioned Ukraine

[keith95] 09/3/2022 22:54

"The Group remains in compliance with all of its banking covenants. At the end of 2021, rouble debt accounted for 64% of secured facilities and euro 36%. The Group's rouble debt facilities are hedged with interest rate caps over the term of the loans, with a weighted average term to maturity of 2.4 years from 1 January 2022 on those caps, protecting the Group from the recent Central Bank of Russia rate hike."

"Raven Property Group Limited was founded in 2005 to invest in class A warehouse complexes in Russia and lease to Russian and International tenants."

If shops are closed stuff will still be stored in warehouses .... with bills owed ..


.. a lot of panic, all depends upon the duration of the war .... and may this war crime end quickly .....

.... 32p to 9p on RAV?

I would have thought a bigger drop was on the cards more like 32p to 3.5p as has happened with Poly and Evraz.

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 18:01

Looks like all the debt is recourse/hold co rather than asset specific/non-recourse So throwing keys on an asset by asset basis doesn't work Nuts - US REITs if they are highly levered usually have non-recourse asset debt with pref shares being the only hold-co/recourse debt High levels of full recourse leverage is really really stupid, how this went into this crisis with 75 percent recourse leverage is beyond me Being balance sheet insolvent might be ok as lenders may not want to pull the plug; but cashflow insolvent is much harder to negotiate away

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:41

Yep there's often force majure provisions in swap ISDAs but not in LMA loan agreements The swaps will be in the money for RAV and out of money for swap counter party so would be a windfall for them if they can cancel the swaps Often the swap CP will be a bank creditor so they probably won't play games as will only impair their own recoveries

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:38

As a pref if things go wrong you absolutely want to nick the equity

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:37

POLY has the advantage of having considerable non-Russian assets that should be worth something even if the Russian assets all go to zero I'd buy here at a couple of pence

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:32

Some of their tenants might be in line to get nationalised now that Russia says it will take over the business/assets of western companies that leave Russia

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:31

Sunk cost fallacy

[m_kerr] 09/3/2022 17:17

LTV is now almost 75% due to rouble devaluation against the euro debt, which is obviously extremely high. interest cover was about 1.5 before the devaluation, and market interest rates are now 20% as opposed to the 6.5% they are currently paying. the cost of paying the amortising €14m per half year in euro debt is now 50% higher. i think it's likely capital values in their portfolio have fallen by more than 25% which takes the value of the debt higher than the properties.

their best bet may be to hand back the keys on each property and distribute any unencumbered cash held outside of russia.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 16:42

Says a Remainiac.

[stemis] 09/3/2022 15:58

What a load of nonsense

[rayg5] 09/3/2022 15:02

Directors have too much to lose for this to go bust. Firms like Unilever, Shell, Macdonalds will return - the Russian public will see to that. I thought Brexit was an own goal, but Putin's adventure is a thousand times worse