Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[m_kerr] 02/3/2022 13:32

reminder that they need to come up with approx £10-12m worth per half year in euros for the amortised euro denominated debt they have.

check note 32 of the last final year results. a 10% weakening of rouble leads to profit falling by £17.5m, so as it stands, the 30% fall in rouble will lead to profit falling by almost £53m. it gets a bit complicated with interest rates also changing, but it's a mess at the moment that shouldnt be touched with a bargepole.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:55

Money has to flow. Russia needs it to flow, as does the West. It will be resolved. This is not North Korea... it is a vibrant and rich economy. Putin is damaged goods and will be overthrown.

[cc2014] 02/3/2022 12:29

So, in summary Raven directors have no more visibility on the future than we do because they don't know if the money will be able to flow between countries and currencies.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:14

Agreed, this is a good statement. The bod wants to keep this a going concern, given the amount of skin they have in the game.

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 12:12

I do understand that Putin is a thug but the Russian people will not put up with sanctions indefinitely. Putin will crush Ukraine, certainly, but the future must be a Russia with new leadership.

[bench2] 02/3/2022 11:11

A good statement from the company , and in an emergency the directors will do everything to retain cash , so passing the pref div a no brainer . I used to own the CULS and I think the company must be relieved they have none in issue now . Invesco must be pleased they were bought out of their very large holdings of Ords and Pref .

[spittingbarrel] 02/3/2022 11:07

The son of a friend of mine is an accountant who has some seriously rich clients. One of them, a Russian, was forced to sell one of his businesses (est. value £250 million), to Putin for £280,000. It was that or suddenly find he can no longer do business in Russia.

With a man like that in charge what chance Raven?

[rayg5] 02/3/2022 11:01

Sanctions are popular with no-one, Russia or the West. They damage everybody. In this one sided war, the best outcome is a negotiated settlement asap.

[stemis] 02/3/2022 10:56

Interesting that the ordinaries went up on the announcement but the prefs fell.

[montyhedge] 02/3/2022 10:27

Like we said red or black, lose all your money or they survive, Ukraine situation if deal done say six months time. Ok cumulative so carried forward say 1 year then they pay 12p dividend, shareprice would treble.So you can buy at 18p, option money.Can they survive until deal done Ukraine ceasefire and peace talks also sanctions eased.Directors have shedloads.

[my retirement fund] 02/3/2022 09:31

So the prefs are not even worth the carrying value of about 2 qtr payments (6p) which Kenny said were held in sterling reserves. Clearly they are legally going to try to keep it as a going concern on paper in order to pay Director salaries and expenses, but in reality would the last one out turn the lights out please.

[irish_neris] 02/3/2022 09:30

So no payment at the end of the month then.

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 09:17

Indeed.

"The ability of the Company to continue to access the funds of its Russian subsidiaries and whether those funds can be converted to the correct currency at a commercial exchange rate is the greatest uncertainty at this time."

[mwj1959] 02/3/2022 09:17

It remains in compliance with all of its banking covenants because the assets have not be revalued to reflect the current situation. The last valuation will have been done for the annual results, so as at 31 Dec 21. A lot has changed since then!

[stemis] 02/3/2022 09:13

The Group remains in compliance with all of its banking covenants. At the end of 2021, rouble debt accounted for 64% of secured facilities and euro 36%. The Group's rouble debt facilities are hedged with interest rate caps over the term of the loans, with a weighted average term to maturity of 2.4 years from 1 January 2022 on those caps, protecting the Group from the recent Central Bank of Russia rate hike.

Operationally, the portfolio is almost fully let with all rents collected for February and demands now issued for March payments, 29% of which have already been received.

[homeboy] 02/3/2022 09:13

don't worry it's all cumulative, lol

if there's an actual company left to cumulate from

good job bilton's got an "expensive trophy wife", that'll give comfort to the mugs stuck here still trying to be clever when the bleeding obvious was on the wall

[spectoacc] 02/3/2022 09:06

RNS finally out, all needs reading but:


"We simply do not have clarity on the restrictions that may be placed on the access and movement of funds intra group at this present time. We are working with banks and lawyers in all jurisdictions but it is still too early to get any definitive view on cash flows available to the Company. We do not expect that this situation will change while there is no resolution to the events in Ukraine or how long restrictions will affect the Group. Inevitably the Board will take a conservative financial approach and at this time it is unlikely that either a distribution to ordinary shareholders in relation to the year ended 31 December 2021 or the preference share coupon for the quarter ending 31 March 2022 will be paid."

[montyhedge] 02/3/2022 09:01

Like we said red or black punt, lose all, or double.

[gfrae] 02/3/2022 08:43

Perhaps they should use the 3p payment to buy them in and cancel them, even if it means paying 15% on the delayed payments ? (while the yield on these is theoretically 60% ).

[montyhedge] 02/3/2022 08:06

Good post, way I see it 3p will be paid 31st March, they have money in Sterling. Going forward all down to Ukraine situation of course.The Pref is cumulative so if not paid ok carried forward.Ceasefire and peace talks hopefully soon.Like you said directors own shedloads of pref and will do their best to keep company alive.

[bench2] 01/3/2022 20:49

My guess is that Chm and CEO who both have significant "skin in the game " , will lie low until the last week of March , when they will pass the 3p Pref Div . Unlike BEMO and JRS which have to provide daily net asset values . This is a 31 Dec year end and final results are normally announced in Cheltenham week , 15 March last year , and 16 March 2020 . I think they will try to delay until things in Ukraine / Russia become a bit clearer , but the company will need to make a statement prior to the 31 March . Remember Anton Bilton who has mainly been taking his pref divs in scrip has a lot to lose if this company ceases to exist , plus he has an expensive trophy wife to look after .

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 18:55

Pay up in Roubles? May not help Euro debt much.

Agree all comes down to banks, where debt is, where cash is.

But Russia is uninvestable any which way.