Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 15:00

Specto, apologies you are correct, I misread.

[zangdook] 09/3/2022 14:48

Unless the company goes bust it will be paid, but maybe not on the due date.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2022 14:44

@gfae:

"....At this time it is unlikely that either a distribution to ordinary shareholders in relation to the year ended 31 December 2021 or the preference share coupon for the quarter ending 31 March 2022 will be paid."

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 14:39

It will be paid see the RNS.

[igbertsponk] 09/3/2022 14:16

It won't be paid. See the RNS on the RAV thread.

[damp seaweed] 09/3/2022 14:11

Does anyone have any insight as to whether the dividend declared and due for payment on 31/03 has any chance of being paid ?
I expect it will rather depend if it has been provisioned and ring fenced.
And maybe if there are any breached loan convents that would forbid it.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 13:57

hcpg: I didn't say that they prefs are not worth anything. I said that in my tiny mind they are worthless and if they have to be written off, so be it i.e. I am willing to take the risk of them falling to nothing. I don't think that will happen though but if it does........

Besides, we don't need them to fully recover - we need them to increase from the current price. I think this is the more likely scenario given time but if wrong, it is a risk we are taking eyes wide open.

That help you to understand?

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 12:02

mkerr Do we know from whom Raven have borrowed the Euros, or the terms of the loans ?
I would have thought at the moment it would still be able to service it's debt after a good year, even at these exchange rates, how are you calculating that they are insolvent ?

[hpcg] 09/3/2022 10:54

dandigirl - I don't understand your logic. You think the prefs are worth nothing, but there are people out there willing to give you 20p. How is 20p not better than nothing? You can only mean you really think they are worth ... some larger number. It is pretty difficult to recover from an 80% loss, one has to four bag the remnant, but recovering from a zero is impossible.

[cc2014] 09/3/2022 10:19

Rouble at 180

[glavey] 09/3/2022 08:56

Doesn't matter what they are called if the company is bust.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 08:40

bench: I don’t think so. They are called prefs for a reason. Why would anybody want to convert to ords? Besides it’s don tin hat time and keep head below parapet.

[dandigirl] 08/3/2022 20:20

Will not sell at these levels.

In my tiny mind, our RAVP are already worthless.

If they have to be written off, so be it. Nothing more lost.

If they rise from the ashes, great.

[m_kerr] 08/3/2022 18:38

this is insolvent, and i did my calculations on the higher rouble exchange rate, so it's 'even more insolvent' now if that's a term. remember the euro debt is amortising therefore they need to come up with £10-12m worth of euros per half year - the bank doesnt care what the exchange rate is they just get their euros. and that obligation has gotten 40% more expensive for RAVEN since the invasion.

there's a long line of multinationals who will withdraw from russia. about 50% of their leases expire in the next 2-3 years, too. at the same time they'll be (attempting to is probably a better term) refinancing a huge chunk of debt. the rate may be triple or quadruple the rate now. that's if they haven't gone under by then.

for me it's a given that the equity is worthless, the question is how much debt holders will have to take a haircut on.

[cc2014] 08/3/2022 13:17

That euro debt just got 15% more expensive in the last 2 hours. Rouble at 180 now.

[my retirement fund] 08/3/2022 11:53

Most insurance cover on dept including swaps is null and void in the event of war, there breathings space is poor, only mugs buying

[cc2014] 08/3/2022 11:34

I get it. They have some breathing space on the Rouble debt.

But not on the euro debt which is about a third of the debt and is immediately costing 65% more to service than it did 2 weeks ago.

And how many Roubles are they collecting with customers leaving Russia?

And what of the property revalution coming along?


The play on the prefs would appear to be based on some form of resolution of Ukraine with the exchange rate and interest rate going back closer to somewhere normal.

But normal will still be 12% interest and 115 rouble to the pound and say 20% less revenue.

As far as I can see the bondholders are likely to dilute the equity holders into oblivion.


My apologies if I've read the numbers wrong. I would be happy to understand the maths better.


PS - if POLY is anything to go by it's clear a large number of people have different opinions on the future of Russian shares. Maybe that is all that is happenning here.

[zangdook] 08/3/2022 10:34

"interest rate of 20%"

but

The Group's rouble debt facilities are hedged with interest rate caps over the term of the loans, with a weighted average term to maturity of 2.4 years from 1 January 2022 on those caps, protecting the Group from the recent Central Bank of Russia rate hike.

[cc2014] 08/3/2022 08:18

The ball has landed. It's just some people don't do their research.

Russian interest rate of 20%.
Rouble at 165

[montyhedge] 07/3/2022 16:17

I would sell the ordinary shares for a 1p to a Chinese or Russian property company, so takeover, but they would have to pay 100p par for the pref cum.They have great properties.Seeing the directors have shedloads of pref, I bet they will do their best.Red or black punt, the ball going around the roulette wheel, lol.

[zangdook] 07/3/2022 13:08

The £14 POLY trades were cancelled. Some fat-fingered idiot has a friend in the LSE.

[spectoacc] 07/3/2022 12:40

French, Italian, German banks all major Russian bond holders apparently - Russian govnt likely to default too.

[waterfall city] 07/3/2022 12:39

It sounds like European banks are expected to write off euro loans to russian companies, you wonder how this affects them, will depend on who their bankers are for these loans I guess.

[spectoacc] 07/3/2022 12:17

If you want positivity, check out POLY's £14 uncrossing trade earlier today.

And no, there was absolutely no borrow, anywhere that I could find.