Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:38

As a pref if things go wrong you absolutely want to nick the equity

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:37

POLY has the advantage of having considerable non-Russian assets that should be worth something even if the Russian assets all go to zero I'd buy here at a couple of pence

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:32

Some of their tenants might be in line to get nationalised now that Russia says it will take over the business/assets of western companies that leave Russia

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:31

Sunk cost fallacy

[m_kerr] 09/3/2022 17:17

LTV is now almost 75% due to rouble devaluation against the euro debt, which is obviously extremely high. interest cover was about 1.5 before the devaluation, and market interest rates are now 20% as opposed to the 6.5% they are currently paying. the cost of paying the amortising €14m per half year in euro debt is now 50% higher. i think it's likely capital values in their portfolio have fallen by more than 25% which takes the value of the debt higher than the properties.

their best bet may be to hand back the keys on each property and distribute any unencumbered cash held outside of russia.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 16:42

Says a Remainiac.

[stemis] 09/3/2022 15:58

What a load of nonsense

[rayg5] 09/3/2022 15:02

Directors have too much to lose for this to go bust. Firms like Unilever, Shell, Macdonalds will return - the Russian public will see to that. I thought Brexit was an own goal, but Putin's adventure is a thousand times worse

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 15:00

Specto, apologies you are correct, I misread.

[zangdook] 09/3/2022 14:48

Unless the company goes bust it will be paid, but maybe not on the due date.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2022 14:44

@gfae:

"....At this time it is unlikely that either a distribution to ordinary shareholders in relation to the year ended 31 December 2021 or the preference share coupon for the quarter ending 31 March 2022 will be paid."

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 14:39

It will be paid see the RNS.

[igbertsponk] 09/3/2022 14:16

It won't be paid. See the RNS on the RAV thread.

[damp seaweed] 09/3/2022 14:11

Does anyone have any insight as to whether the dividend declared and due for payment on 31/03 has any chance of being paid ?
I expect it will rather depend if it has been provisioned and ring fenced.
And maybe if there are any breached loan convents that would forbid it.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 13:57

hcpg: I didn't say that they prefs are not worth anything. I said that in my tiny mind they are worthless and if they have to be written off, so be it i.e. I am willing to take the risk of them falling to nothing. I don't think that will happen though but if it does........

Besides, we don't need them to fully recover - we need them to increase from the current price. I think this is the more likely scenario given time but if wrong, it is a risk we are taking eyes wide open.

That help you to understand?

[gfrae] 09/3/2022 12:02

mkerr Do we know from whom Raven have borrowed the Euros, or the terms of the loans ?
I would have thought at the moment it would still be able to service it's debt after a good year, even at these exchange rates, how are you calculating that they are insolvent ?

[hpcg] 09/3/2022 10:54

dandigirl - I don't understand your logic. You think the prefs are worth nothing, but there are people out there willing to give you 20p. How is 20p not better than nothing? You can only mean you really think they are worth ... some larger number. It is pretty difficult to recover from an 80% loss, one has to four bag the remnant, but recovering from a zero is impossible.

[cc2014] 09/3/2022 10:19

Rouble at 180

[glavey] 09/3/2022 08:56

Doesn't matter what they are called if the company is bust.

[dandigirl] 09/3/2022 08:40

bench: I don’t think so. They are called prefs for a reason. Why would anybody want to convert to ords? Besides it’s don tin hat time and keep head below parapet.

[dandigirl] 08/3/2022 20:20

Will not sell at these levels.

In my tiny mind, our RAVP are already worthless.

If they have to be written off, so be it. Nothing more lost.

If they rise from the ashes, great.

[m_kerr] 08/3/2022 18:38

this is insolvent, and i did my calculations on the higher rouble exchange rate, so it's 'even more insolvent' now if that's a term. remember the euro debt is amortising therefore they need to come up with £10-12m worth of euros per half year - the bank doesnt care what the exchange rate is they just get their euros. and that obligation has gotten 40% more expensive for RAVEN since the invasion.

there's a long line of multinationals who will withdraw from russia. about 50% of their leases expire in the next 2-3 years, too. at the same time they'll be (attempting to is probably a better term) refinancing a huge chunk of debt. the rate may be triple or quadruple the rate now. that's if they haven't gone under by then.

for me it's a given that the equity is worthless, the question is how much debt holders will have to take a haircut on.