Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[killing_time] 22/3/2013 11:20

Hi snowydays, Expecting the quarter results within the next 5 working days. I am expecting a small profit but the loading of the second shipment with 3,150 tonnes of concentrate shocked me a bit. I emailed RMM to find out if they only produced 1,000 tonnes a month for Dec, Jan and Feb or they still had concentrate stored which they did not load, but RMM failed to repond to my email so i am assuming the worst.
I think things will get better going forward and with Henderson taking a large holding helps to calm the nerves. KT.

If you are looking for a good gold mining company, you should do some research on MML. When RMM hit 38p i top sliced 3/5th of my holdings and invested it there, big year ahead.

[snowydays] 21/3/2013 21:06

In the unlikely event of Rambler ever actually producing enough copper to make a profit at least the weak pound might make it look a little more respectable.

Just how bad will these long awaited results be? My guess is a small loss, but lots of bluster about how production is just about to be ramped up.

Lets just hope there is some good news regarding exploration results or even that the reprocessing of tailings is going well. If there is bad news on those fronts it must be time to give up on Rambler and look for a company which actually delivers on its promises.

[ned] 18/3/2013 07:43

Henderson have a 15.1% holding now, hopefully pressing on and hopefully having good reason to do so.

[snowydays] 09/3/2013 11:38

I think part of the problem with Rambler is that they see things from a mining perspective rather than a business perspective. From their point of view they have been successful in bringing the mine into production and that is a major achievement. Unfortunately shareholders have a different viewpoint. We want profits and a return on our investment. That doesn't seem to be something which interests Ramblers directors.

[snowydays] 08/3/2013 09:17

"over the last three years we have moved the stock from 7p at the height of the financial crisis to its current levels;"

More like 5 years than three. Alternatively we could say they have moved the stock from 75p down to its current levels.

[lwaxf13] 08/3/2013 07:48

"I feel that Rambler is" is much different from "Rambler is". Nothing there fills me with confidence. There does appear to be a lack of bullishness witnessed in George's many videos.

Measured over years? How many? The re-rating appears to be downplayed now. So an expectation set previously appears to be side lined. Not confident at all on this one anymore.

[jgraggaber] 08/3/2013 02:26

And another after 2 more enquiries from my part where I stated that I was somewhat suprised and worried about a few statements prior to the presumed imminent and long promised 're-rating' and 'making a lot of money fast' notably:

'ensure that any risks to the business are mitigated as much as possible' and 'the long term outlook of the Company does appear to be positive' as well as the retirement of a non-executive director (I certainly would not retire from a supervisory role with limited time commitment having been on board since the start if I expected the company to make a substantial break through)

Reply:

'Merfyn is retiring from all boards that he serves on for personal reason.

These are tough markets for any listed company however I feel that Rambler is in an excellent position for continued growth. The entire team has put a tremendous effort into building this mine over the past years and our growth will also be measured over years.'

'Our Growth' is likely to equate to increase in turnover rather than profit. I also did not like their time horizon which is likely to correlate with a rather uninspiring development of the shareprice in the near future. I now also perceive the recent strong emphasis on becoming a leading mine developer in Atlantic Canada as a distraction and strategic movement away from what I felt was the core asset - the Ming Mine. This somehow implies that current operations might not be as profitable as predicted and I do not see an imminent substantial re-rating.

[jgraggaber] 08/3/2013 02:14

Some replies to my recent enquiries. I shared the gist before:

'Thank you for the email. As we are in Commercial Production we will only release production information with our quarterly results, with the next being scheduled late March. Unless it's something outside the normal course of business and then we have a duty to our shareholders to ensure effective communication.

In the meantime there are other activities which are ongoing that we will be releasing periodically throughout the year. Everything from property acquisitions to ways to increase production in our current phase 1 (high grade startup) up to and including the Lower Footwall Zone. Rambler has always made a significant effort to communicate our vision, "To become Atlantic Canada's Leading Resource Developer and Mine Operator", and now is the perfect time for a Company like Rambler, who are generating cash flow, to continue moving forward. The presentation on our website clearly highlights our Company's vision and the opportunities we intend to exploit as our reputation as a copper producer continues to grow.

As a share holder I can appreciate your frustration however when you consider all of the other Companies currently trading on the AIM we were one of the best performers during 2012. While we have not seen any rerating just yet, over the last three years we have moved the stock from 7p at the height of the financial crisis to its current levels; all while delivering on our objectives and bringing the Ming Mine into commercial production. Nearly every other Company trading on the AIM saw significant losses during 2012 ... 2013 has not had a great start either. Again I realize all of our shareholders would like to see that rerating however for us as managers we can only continue working towards our objectives and ensure that any risks to the business are mitigated as much as possible.

On the bigger picture the copper price has been one of the best performing metals over the last 5 years and we believe will be one of the top performers over the next 5 years. It is our thought that demand for copper in Asia, emerging countries and North America will be strong. Based on this outlook, and the numerous opportunities we are considering, the long term outlook of the Company does appear to be positive.

As always I enjoy our conversations and appreciate your continued support.

[lwaxf13] 07/3/2013 19:45

Even more frustrating given all the talk that comes from RMM and the high expectation setting and still it is so sluggish.

[snowydays] 07/3/2013 14:30

Shares in Rambler Metals (LON:RMM, CVE:RAB) rose more than 8% as it sealed its second shipment of ore from the Ming copper-gold mine in Newfoundland.

Broker Cantor Fitzgerald heralded the news and repeated its 'buy' rating and 64p price target on the shares, almost double the current price of 33.5p, up 6.4% today.

"A small win today with Rambler notifying the market that the company has successfully made a second shipment of copper concentrate from its wholly owned Goodyear Cove facility during the depths of winter," said analyst Matthew McDonald.

"Despite some minor equipment issues, production appears to be progressing and is expected to increase with the recent breakthrough of the recently developed 1807 ramp system," the broker continued.




Best of luck King Suarez. I think you may have done the prudent thing.

Rambler is such a frustrating share to hold. Always on the verge of something big.

[king suarez] 06/3/2013 20:50

Yep, the game is rigged against us PI's that's for sure...

Must admit I sold out completely today. Have held for over a year, I think. Just have seen so many of my junior miners get trashed recently that I could not take the risk of less than stellar quarterlies seeing a "sell on news" effect.

This is a good company, but this is a terrible market and just cannot predict market reaction to news any more!

If the share price drops, I will be looking to buy back. If it starts to fly.. so be it, well deserved.

GLA

[dingliwang] 06/3/2013 19:39

Its no wonder insiders do so well.

Even when we get an RNS we still don't know what the bloody hell is going on.

This last RNS actually increased our uncertainty about what the output for Q2 will be.

[snowydays] 06/3/2013 15:44

From the last results:

"Produced a total of 4,955 wmt of concentrate during" the quarter. That was Aug, Sept, Oct 2012 in the commissioning phase. In the Dec presentation they promised to ramp up production significantly for the second quarter. They forecast 576 tonnes of copper equivalent for November which should be about 2,000 tonnes of concentrate for November alone.

[snowydays] 06/3/2013 13:59

I would call late November to late February three months rather than two.

[lwaxf13] 06/3/2013 13:47

>You wouldn't expect 5000 in two months though or would you?

No but I would expect a more transparent statement instead of the one that is open to any number of interpretations. Because the wording is not transparent I have to assume that is intentionally so and then wonder why is it not transparent.

[snowydays] 06/3/2013 13:34

Yes, thats what it read like to me. An early shipment, i.e. we had planned to call a ship when we had 5,000t in April.

But it would make sense that transamine have an agreement with the shipping company to take up the excess capacity on a vessel at reduced rates. The shipping owners must like shipments such as concentrates where they can just load up to the exact figure to utilise 100% of a ships capacity.

The previous shipment of concentrate was for nearly 9,000 tonnes produced over 6 months and that was in the commissioning phase where mostly LFZ ore was used for the first few months. If production really was just 3,150 tonnes over the last three months that is very worrying.

This RNS poses more questions than it anwers.

[redhill] 06/3/2013 13:29

You wouldn't expect 5000 in two months though or would you?

[lwaxf13] 06/3/2013 12:44

"With the continuing production from the Ming Mine the Company is pleased to accommodate Transamine's request for an early concentrate shipment, ahead of the typical 5,000 wmt minimal lot"

It's unclear how to interpret this. However, I think if there was another 5,000wmt then RMM would have been explicit about that. They haven't been explicit so I interpret it as negative - only 3000wmt.

[redhill] 06/3/2013 12:35

Seems like about 2 months production to me ,working on the dates & 5000 per quarter seems high likely.

[killing_time] 06/3/2013 11:37

I use the rough figures that Rambler need to do about 5,000 tonnes of concentrate per quarter to hit targets.
We know that they had a few equipment issues at the mine with some delays, also because of the weather there was reports of the ore getting stuck in the hopper and you have to assume ore being transported was probably slowed down by the weather as well. 2,000 tonnes short is a big number even taking into account the above. It would be interesting to know if there was more stored at the port but they were unable to load because it was frozen.

As for Q2 i cannot see them hitting there targets but i do expect them to show a profit because they were payed for the balance of the first shipment on the 31st Jan, though it will be a small profit imo.

The improvement in average grades was the one positive to come out of these figures.

I notice that forcast targets are slightly lower for Q3 than Q2 OR Q4, i wonder if this is to take into account the winter period. KT. ( Taken from Dec presentation )

[dingliwang] 06/3/2013 10:45

No, but they should have had more available - if they were meeting expectations.

[raweden] 06/3/2013 10:44

Transamine requested a special early shipment. Rambler simply facilitated the request, which I think is perfectly reasonable. Should RMM have refused?

[ned] 06/3/2013 10:16

Ok. They need to get a move on then to get another 5000 wmt into the following Q's results.