Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[count chris] 10/1/2013 21:52

We seem to be stuck in a channel now 36-38p. Need a bit of news to get it going again.

[killing_time] 10/1/2013 19:27

Thanks snowy.

[snowydays] 10/1/2013 17:15

Rambler have fixed the link to the latest Seymour Pierce brokers note.

[killing_time] 03/1/2013 15:28

No, no more than any other company, the buying is probably Tinma with a few ii's picking up stock.

Theres also the question of who has been selling for the past 6 months.

IMO if someone new had been stake building with a view to a takeover we would have got an RNS as they past the 3% mark.

[rogash] 03/1/2013 15:15

Killing time,are you expecting a bid?

[killing_time] 03/1/2013 12:28

Hi rogash,

This has been going on since August. I am expecting an RNS to say that someone has bought 6 million +.

[rogash] 03/1/2013 12:16

Tinma must be increasing their holding.Somebody has been mopping up all the sells for the last few weeks.

[killing_time] 03/1/2013 08:35

There is a small bit on Rambler in this talk about small gold companies.

[snowydays] 02/1/2013 11:06

Thanks Chipper, yes that would make sense if the figures quoted in the presentation are equivalent payable tonnes rather than actual contained tonnes.

Rambler do have a habit of presenting confusing numbers, e.g. wet metric tonnes instead of tonnes of ore, payable tonnes instead of actual contained tonnes. It makes the underlying picture hard to see.

[chipperfrd] 02/1/2013 09:43

Regarding some peoples expectations over the numbers!

Need to remember that the mine product is concentrate not SX/EW copper cathode.

Hence, there are additional discounts applying because of Conc transport, TC/RC charges and smelter recovery.

A usual rule-of-thumb for payable metal is 80% of contained metal in concentrate.

This can be verified by totalling the value of contained metals in the recent shipment and comparing with the revenue for that shipment claimed by Rambler.

ie. approx $21.117m contained value against $17m payable to Rambler - which is c. 81%

If one applies the payable metal (net smelter return) of 81% to the mill recovery (ie 90% x 81% = 73%) one can see how the monthly copper tonnes reported by Rambler are derived.

The mine would appear to be running at or above the expected rate for this stage of phase 1 and the full FY13 targets look very achievable. Hence, I would expect a re-rating in line with earnings before long.
Chip

[dukedosh] 01/1/2013 21:25

I agree with snowydays and I remain extremely cautious about the numbers here. Not sure this re-rating GO spoke about is going to happen any time soon. So much so, I decided to reduce my RMM holding by around 2/3rds. The strong run up to 39p was the catalyst and decider for me.

Since then, it looks to me like the MMs are soaking up a hell of a lot of 36p stock. If that is so, this could very soon move sharply upwards or maybe the price is being held here for an ii to accumulate a position? Either way, we should find out pretty soon.

Happy and prosperous NY to all.

[killing_time] 01/1/2013 17:09

Hi snowy,

I am suprised that these figures are forecast figures as they were released in the December presentation.
Though i guess they wouldn't of had the time for a set of accurate figures but they must be quite near.




I guess we will have to wait till hopefully Feb maybe March for some clarification. My view on this is similar to some of the above views in that we have only just started production and yet to have a full quarter so its a bit early to say that things might not be going right but i look forward to any response anybody has with management to the numbers and targets they keep putting out.

[rogsim] 01/1/2013 12:54

snowydays

It is disappointing that you didn't receive any reply from Mr Ogilvie.

By the way, there was nothing pejorative in my post. I find all discussion about RMM to be of interest, so no need to go on the defensive with me. Please keep your comments coming.

[snowydays] 01/1/2013 12:49

rogsim, I have emailed the company several times and received no response.

But this is a message board for the discussion of Rambler Mines is it not? These are surely pertinent matters which can be legitimately raised here.

[rogsim] 01/1/2013 12:36

snowydays

Wouldn't it be best to approach Mr Ogilvie with your question? When I've spoken with him, he has never shied away from trying to give answers.

[snowydays] 01/1/2013 12:21

k_t, those are just forecast figures. If Ramblers track record is any guide they will fail to meet even those low numbers.

There is something about all these figures which doesn't seem to add up and is one of the reasons Ramblers production is so far below expectations.

Predicted November figures, 17,667 dry metric tonnes of ore processed, head greade 4.59% Cu equivalent, production 576tonnes Cu equivalent.

So, 17,667 tonnes at 4.59% is 17,667 X 0.0459 = 811 tonnes Cu equivalent.

But just 576 tonnes Cu equivalent produced. That is a recovery rate of just 71%.

But Rambler have repeatedly stated that recovery rates are averaging 90% for Cu and 65% for gold. Since Cu makes up about 80% of the value that means that overall recovery rates should be about 83% which would be 673 tonnes Cu equivalent.

In effect we seem to be losing about 100 tonnes of Cu equivalent every month. Can anyone explain the discrepancy?

[davidblack] 01/1/2013 11:05

It is the start up phase, nothing to do with AIM, this is TSX-V too.

Also if you have never been to Eastern Canada in winter you can get a lot more done if the weather has been normal than if it snows heavy.

Production in Newfoundland is never going to be quite as predictable as making widgets in a factory in Daventry.

March update should give us a better clue.

I hold a stock called Mirabella (ASX:MBN and TSX:MNB) which was going to "Sail into easy production". It took them six months plus of hard work to get past the teething stage!

The wait can be very worthwhile though with that stock doubling in the process as issues are fixed.

[killing_time] 01/1/2013 10:43

November 2012 figures:

Dry Tonnes processed 17,667

Head Grade 4.59

Total Eq Cu 576 Tonnes

All these figures are a record for a month.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year, KT.

[ned] 31/12/2012 20:05

I think the moaning, or pointing out the realities is quite reasonable really.

We haven't achieved the position that would indicate enough profits to re-rate our share price, as was indicated, afterall, and the assessment of production figures and expected cashflow if offered by posters with some insight can only add a bit of interest to our investment here.

Let's face it Rambler have to get the mine up and running, get investment into the company and try and maintain the shareprice (though it seems that they have some assistance at present with the sells being soaked up).

The only way to do that in these appalling markets for small mining companies is to be a little over optimistic in expectations indicated. I think we have to understand that,see that we are up and running, achieving milestones, albeit a bit slower than expected and hope they can keep it going and improving output until we do re-rate.

In the meantime I can't see a problem with hearing the true position.

Happy New Year to all holders.

[dingliwang] 31/12/2012 18:48

This is the problem with AIM

If a company says it will do 10 then people think that moaning about them doing 4 is unjustified.

Unfortunately in comparison with many other main miners, producing a profit that is a fifth of what was expected is an outstanding performance.

Most AIM miners predict big profits but produce big losses.

[kiwimonk] 31/12/2012 17:32

Snowydays. Filtered.
The greatest unjustified moaner i've read!

[snowydays] 31/12/2012 16:55

Sadly it seems the current quarter has started poorly. Extrapolating from the number of wet metric tonnes of concentrate shipped and the number in storage at the end of October it seems that Rambler probably produced less than 2,000wmt of concentrate in November, with a value of less than $4m. On that basis Rambler will probably be cash flow positive for the quarter but nowhere near the $10m cashflow which they predicted.

Let's hope that TINMA will be pressing Rambler to get their act together in 2013, or perhaps a takeover is on the cards.

Rambler have still not fixed the link to the Seymour Pierce brokers note on their website.

Wishing everyone a prosperous 2013.

[davidblack] 31/12/2012 09:59

For cashflow watchers, also $500,000 spent to buy back the 1% royalty needs to be included, together with the $500,000 loan repayment.

On 9 October 2012 the Company announced the purchase of a 1% net smelter
royalty held over the mine for a total consideration of $500,000. This
is the second royalty Rambler purchased since starting commissioning
leaving a combined net smelter royalty of 1.5% on the Ming Mine.

On balance a flattish quarter balance sheet wise with I hope the action really kicking off in March when they announce the first full quarters numbers.

Fingers crossed?

[snowydays] 28/12/2012 13:18

"Rambler Metals & Mining PLC is seeking acquisitions. Rambler Metals & Mining estimate to generate cash flows of between $20 million and $25 million in the fiscal year to March 31 2013, which is more than ample to fund its expansion plans, it may use debt as it also seeks to acquire other regional assets and may use the cash there instead."